1$/gal. gasoline? Maybe, but what does it mean really?

   / 1$/gal. gasoline? Maybe, but what does it mean really? #31  
Russia's economy is oil based. The world is punishing Russia.
 
   / 1$/gal. gasoline? Maybe, but what does it mean really? #33  
"Unfortunately it means our economy is doing very poor"

"I don't know, housing prices have pretty much recovered here, lots of jobs. Aside from my IRA, I am doing very well"

While you may be doing pretty well, there is a record number of people out of the work force who have flat given up on finding work thus are not even reflected in the Unemployment figures. People on food stamps has nearly doubled in the last 10 years and people who have what has always been considered part time entry level jobs are now demanding wages to support their families since they can not find "real" jobs - does not sound good to me.

Walt Conner
 
   / 1$/gal. gasoline? Maybe, but what does it mean really? #34  
"Unfortunately it means our economy is doing very poor"

"I don't know, housing prices have pretty much recovered here, lots of jobs. Aside from my IRA, I am doing very well"

While you may be doing pretty well, there is a record number of people out of the work force who have flat given up on finding work thus are not even reflected in the Unemployment figures. People on food stamps has nearly doubled in the last 10 years and people who have what has always been considered part time entry level jobs primarily for teen's first job, are now demanding wages to support their families since they can not find "real" jobs - does not sound good to me.

Walt Conner
 
   / 1$/gal. gasoline? Maybe, but what does it mean really?
  • Thread Starter
#35  
My last trip to the Philippines was in 2014, $1310.00 round trip via Korean air. Round trip before that was $1320.00 round trip again on Korean air.

mark

You can get a round trip ticket to fly in March and return in April, Chicago to Manila plus one stop, $650! In 2006 I paid about $750 and the exchange rate was around 50p/1$. The rate is getting up there again, well over 47 I think.

Kevin
 
   / 1$/gal. gasoline? Maybe, but what does it mean really? #36  
I tend to watch the petroleum market very closely. I'm not sure why but it fascinates me, I guess because it effects the economy so greatly. 2015 was a very volatile year for the oil industry and it seems like the only place anybody is making money now is in tankers and storage facilities. The world is pumping 2 million extra barrels per day and they're running out of places to put the stuff. Iran will probably come on line with more oil in the not too distant future and Saudi says they aren't going to quit pumping. Something has to give sooner or later and it probably isn't going to be pretty.

In the meantime we're enjoying some of the lowest gas, diesel, and heating oil prices we've seen in over a decade. Gasoline is selling in the $1.30's in more than one state now and I won't be shocked to see $1 per gallon gasoline somewhere in the US before this is over.

How long with these low prices last and what will happen to end them? Oil producing countries, especially small ones are really hurting. Most of their budgets were predicated on $100/barrel oil. Prices changing this drastically will surely come to an end badly sooner or later.

Before it's over I'm hoping to get some really cheap airline tickets to the Philippines though :) I'm thinking $500 round trip maybe? Last time we paid over $1700.

Kevin

I don't think we're going to run out of storage capacity, but if we do, we'll see WTI with a ten handle. As it is, right now North Dakota Sour is going for -0.50 a barrel. The rigs that are pumping the daily 15,000 gallons of NDS in the western end of the state will be shuttered.

That said, Suadi Arabia and Russia are base producers. America is a (new) swing producer; able to ramp up and down production quickly as oil prices support profitable rigs. Because of global capacity for production, OPEC can no longer function as a cartel because if they limit production to drive prices up, Russia will pump more oil and Americans will drop more rigs in and quickly ramp up production.

Saudi finds itself abandoning production goals in order to keep cash-flow going.

I think the oil market will discover this change in realty increasingly over the next year.

Investment wise, If I see WTI with a ten handle, I'll drop my hat on long oil ETFs as a basket way to have exposure to that segment of the energy sector as supply destruction will come soon enough.

El-Erian: 'Massive' Supply Disruption to Lift Oil Prices - Bloomberg Business

oil.jpg
 
   / 1$/gal. gasoline? Maybe, but what does it mean really? #37  
Russia's economy is oil based. The world is punishing Russia.

Exactly. Obama and Kerry are putting a leash on Putin's military adventurism while negotiating a huge boost to the American economy. It was well done, and the only people getting hurt and the ones who have $billions in their pockets anyway. Putting Iran back on the world oil market is going to slam Russia for a long time. So much for Putin's dream of rebuilding the Soviet Empire. He'll be dead and out of power before he has two rubles to rub together.
 
   / 1$/gal. gasoline? Maybe, but what does it mean really? #38  
"Unfortunately it means our economy is doing very poor"

"I don't know, housing prices have pretty much recovered here, lots of jobs. Aside from my IRA, I am doing very well"

While you may be doing pretty well, there is a record number of people out of the work force who have flat given up on finding work thus are not even reflected in the Unemployment figures. People on food stamps has nearly doubled in the last 10 years and people who have what has always been considered part time entry level jobs primarily for teen's first job, are now demanding wages to support their families since they can not find "real" jobs - does not sound good to me.

Walt Conner

People with low or no skills will never be employed again. They have to rely on the social safety net, because all the jobs for dummies have been automated. Jobs for the strong back and weak mind are extinct. We'll legalize pot and make TV programming really cheap and easy to get. They collect their food stamps and live in subsidized housing. That's the "bread and circuses" solution to excess population that the Romans implemented 2000 years ago. It's true that there are lots of jobs going begging, but most of the unemployed can't pass a drug test. Getting stoned and watching TV is their life. A booming economy isn't going to change that.
 
   / 1$/gal. gasoline? Maybe, but what does it mean really? #39  
I know that right now is an uncomfortable time to turn age 70 1/2 this year. Required minimum distributions (RMD) from IRA and 401K's etc are kicking in based on stock prices as of December 31, 2015. Uncle Sam wants his money and will get it by forcing the above people to "cash in" about 4% of their life savings and pay tax on it. Cashing in means selling enough low price shares to pay 4% based on high price shares.
 
   / 1$/gal. gasoline? Maybe, but what does it mean really? #40  
Exactly. Obama and Kerry are putting a leash on Putin's military adventurism while negotiating a huge boost to the American economy. It was well done, and the only people getting hurt and the ones who have $billions in their pockets anyway. Putting Iran back on the world oil market is going to slam Russia for a long time. So much for Putin's dream of rebuilding the Soviet Empire. He'll be dead and out of power before he has two rubles to rub together.

Obama does not get credit for this. He is the one that said "I don't have a problem with $4 gal. gas." Obama did what he could to stop oil production here. That is why the oil industry went to private land to drill. Obama shut down public land drilling.
The billionaire's are not going to loose. The workers in the oil fields and oil transportation will loose.
 

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