Adjusting to the HIGH cost of energy

sneaky_pete · Aug 20, 2005

( It really makes you wonder what the Big 3 have held back from being developed over the years. They are in bed with the oil industry. 

Doesn't make me wonder. But then I don't see a conspiracy behind every tree and am not on the look out for black helicopters. /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif /forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif (I'm not implying you do, either.))

You've both got your tin foil beanies on inside-out! /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

( Backers of plug-in hybrids acknowledge that the electricity to boost their cars generally comes from fossil fuels that create greenhouse gases, but they say that process still produces far less pollution than oil.

Their focus is not mileage but pollution.)

And flawed at that - it takes more energy (thus more pollution too), not less to convert from one type to another and transport it, as in burning coal or natural gas to generate electricity and then move that through lines to your house.

Also, didn't these environmentalists learn anything from the rolling brownouts and blackouts in California? What do you suppose would happen if the already stretched electricity distribution grids in California were further taxed with some percentage of Californians now charging their cars every single night?

( Here's why the automakers haven't done this. No conspiracy. No deal with the oil industry.

Anyone who is in business has to make a business case for spending capital which typically includes a ROI (Return On Investment). Would you invest millions or billions of dollars to design and tool up to make a plug in hybrid when you're not even sure you will sell enough of them to cover your costs much less make a profit? )

But, but... that means there would be no evil boogeyman to blame for all the things I won't take the time or effort to understand for myself. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

MikePA · Aug 20, 2005

But, but... that means there would be no evil boogeyman to blame for all the things I won't take the time or effort to understand for myself.
As Stevie Wonder sang;

"When you believe in things that you don’t understand,
Then you suffer,
Superstition ain’t the way"

arthr31 · Aug 20, 2005

ok...

so i drive a 20 mpg truck (cummins diesel, thank you very much) about 25-30 miles a day. Starting next week I'm going to ride a bike to work (12/13 mi each way).

I heat my house with wood. I believe in alternate power sources. I live close to work. I clean my clothes, etc. in cold water, dry by air, etc....

I working on converting my truck to run on grease. I'm working on converting my wifes car to diesel, then to grease, etc.

We will never have cheaper energy costs. We are at the peak, or somewhere close to, the peak of the hydrocarbon era ( i am not an expert, but I've read a lot).

Most of us will see economy failure, food delivery failure, astronomical fuel prices, etc. I guess within the next 5 yrs.

Get ready. -art

MikePA · Aug 20, 2005

Most of us will see economy failure, food delivery failure, astronomical fuel prices, etc. I guess within the next 5 yrs. 

In his 1968 book, The Population Bomb Paul Ehrlich predicted;

"The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate..."

"a minimum of ten million people, most of them children, will starve to death during each year of the 1970s. But this is a mere handful compared to the numbers that will be starving before the end of the century"

In 1969 he predicted, ""Smog disasters" in 1973 might kill 200,000 people in New York and Los Angeles."

In 1976 he predicted, "Before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity . . . in which the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be facing depletion."

And many other dire predictions that failed to occur, not to mention his radical political and social solutions to prevent them from happening.

"Ehrlich proposed that "luxury taxes could be placed on layettes, cribs, diapers, diaper services, [and] expensive toys..." and suggested giving "responsibility prizes" to couples who went at least five years without having children or to men who got vasectomies. He called for setting up a federal Bureau of Population and Environment to oversee reducing U.S. population growth."

"Third World nations he believed would never achieve "self-sufficiency" in feeding their population. Complaining about "the assorted do-gooders who are deeply involved in the apparatus of international food charity," Ehrlich endorsed a proposal by |William and Paul Paddock| to simply stop both private and government-sponsored food aid to nations which experienced chronic food shortages. If nations refused to institute Ehrlich’s population control proposals, he was more than willing to let the people in those nations starve."

We're fortunate that no one listened to him or implemented his 'solutions'. /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif

arthr31 · Aug 20, 2005

well, sneaky_pete or others might be able to chime in here with my authority than me--- but, really, can we expect that the oil wil last forever? You are quoting a book from the '70s. that's pathetic. you are no better than our current administration. why would you post something so out of date as that? Are you thinking that everything is the same as it was 20 years ago? It's not. those details and stats don't matter today.

Now, on a side note, I drove up I-495 from the cape today (with my 4-member family (yeah, i was in the cummins diesel)) and we notice how many ppl, lone ppl mind you, almost ran into us ( i cruise at 60mhp) - i find this strange. high cost of fuel, no one cares?!? )

MikePA · Aug 20, 2005

The point, that I thought would be obvious, is that people have been making dire, ridiculous predictions for years. Each of them 'supported' with 'evidence'. Some people in the 60s and 70s believed this nonsense. None of the predictions have come to pass.

Ehrlich continues to make similar inane predictions today and people continue to believe him. "Human-induced land degradation affects about 40% of the planet's vegetated land surface and is accelerating nearly everywhere, reducing crop yields." We now harvest about 50% more corn per acre than 30 years ago. And via technology, crop yields can be raised from the current world average of around 1.2 tons per acre to six to nine tons.

Ehrlich predicts, "Since natural resources are finite, increased consumption must inevitably lead to depletion and scarcity." As copper became scarce and more expensive, the industry switched to use fiber lines.

The current oil reserves that are extracted by current technologies won't 'last forever'. Sources like oil sands and oil shale extracted by new technologies, or even current technology, that didn't make economic sense with oil at $40/barrel, will take their places.

goodoleboy · Aug 20, 2005

( I considered getting a 4cyl sedan instead of a 6cyl to get a few more MPG but honestly, being able to get outta the way of the other fool is worth the extra money to me.)

Thats one of the reasons how we got in this mess to start with.
But I do agree with you cars should back to normal size soon. /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

In response to the OP I have taken out light bulbs fixutres from bathroom fixtures. We always driven fuel efficent type cars so not much we can change. However our home is energy efficient except for the electric a/c and gas heat.We did buy our first truck last year and we are Very glad we bought a used cheapo truck for hauling every bi-weekly and not commuting. Cause even when gas was a $1.40 a gallon I had a hard time filling up that truck.

I was reading in another forum asking what is considered good MPG? Many replied saying 25mpg is good MPG which shocked me. I thought 40mpg is min. good mpg for a non-hyrbid car.

sneaky_pete · Aug 20, 2005

( We will never have cheaper energy costs. We are at the peak, or somewhere close to, the peak of the hydrocarbon era ( i am not an expert, but I've read a lot).

Most of us will see economy failure, food delivery failure, astronomical fuel prices, etc. I guess within the next 5 yrs.

Get ready. -art )

I am by nature an optimist, but I think a realistic one.

I do believe that we are at or near the peak of world hydrocarbon production, but there is still a lot of hydrocarbons remaining on the downhill side of the curve. As the price of crude oil continues to rise, some resources previously not economic to produce (like tar sands) will become economic. The worst part of production peaking is that U.S. and world-wide demand is still rising, guaranteeing that prices will continue to rise, irregardless of taxes or price controls. I'm afraid it might spawn more wars for control of world resources, just as the Japanese started the war in the Pacific to gain access to crude oil supplies in Malaysia and elsewhere.

In my opinion, what the next five years will bring at the very least is rampant inflation, worse than the late 70's and early 80's when crude oil was at historic highs. I think that food delivery failure and economic failure are possibilities, but if so probably more than five or ten years down the road. If prices rise gradually enough, the economy has more time to adjust, which (so far) has been the case over the last year or two. The problem is, it wouldn't take that big of a terrorist attack or a new hard-line Islamic regime in a major producing country (remember, King Fahd of Saudi Arabia just died) to have another major disruption and consequent big spike in prices overnight. If that were to happen, then Katy bar the door.

We have to continue to hold some faith in human ingenuity, that there will be more and better methods of enhanced oil recovery than we are presently employing. There is a lot of crude oil remaining in existing and already abandoned oil fields that is unrecoverable by today's technology, but hopefully the up and coming generation of engineers and scientists will find ways to recover this remaining crude oil.

Meanwhile, as I've said before - we as a nation (including especially our congress) must take our heads out of the sand and realize that we are addicted to cheap and plentiful energy, that the situation is not going to fix itself this time, that finding and recovering more oil is extremely expensive and risky, and that we'd better start implementing what remedial methods we can (like nuclear energy and enhanced recovery) while we still can.

The irony of this discussion is, that the evil oil business that everyone loves to hate are the only people in the world who can help the world get through this, and believe it or not, we are doing everything we can to help and are willing to do more. We've figured out a long time ago that we would never get any credit or thanks for creating the highest standard of living ever enjoyed by anyone in history, so now we just do it for the money and the personal satisfaction. So flame on - I don't expect many to understand.

NewToy · Aug 20, 2005

Nexen,NYSE symbol NXY. It's a good one. They are into refining oil from the vast oil sand deposits in Canada. They make money doing it when oil hits $50.00.. I bought some about 6 months ago and it makes the price of oil going up a bit more palatable.

John

JimR · Aug 21, 2005

I guess we can blame all of this on over-population and developement of the world. Since there is not going to be an end of that. We will in fact use up the world's supply eventually. Hopefully I will not be around when that happens. I conserve now and try to do my part while some people drive around in a vehicle too big for them to handle. The need to drive a big vehicle for protection or manlyhood is a real joke. Drive with respect and you won't need that big vehicle to intimidate others. I've intimidated quite a few big pickups with my little BMW when they try to cut me off. So what if they hit me. They'll own my BMW and I'll go out and buy another one.