Battery based vehicles of today and tomorrow pt 2

[Agvg]

The report comes out of China and shows them years ahead of the west. If we can move fast enough I think North America has a shot at carving out a niche in the EV evolution possibly

At least we are considering reopening our own rare earth metals mines for national security purposes.

Or is it the CCP that are out with propaganda again?

 

[Jchonline]

Oh, the Africans are not so happy for this export, have sent all kind of worn out junk from Europe to Africa for decades, and large cities in Africa have a lot of problems with pollution, no reason to not get EVs in poorer countries, EVs will be cheaper and cheaper to buy and don't need expensive fuel.

Yes but as the article mentions lots of folks are paying cash because they cant afford to finance…so they are spending around $4000 just to get something to drive. Today EV batteries cost 3 times that, much less a car to go with it. I would not expect that turnaround to happen for another few decades.

EVs do have expensive fuel. Combine the cost of the battery with electricity to charge and it’s not cheap. Also consider that many of these vehicles are 15-20 years old which in EV terms is ancient and would likely require a new battery. Truly the battery is the problem. Added cost over today’s gas vehicles out of the gate…then they have to be replaced in 10 or so years. We need a better power storage system.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Only if you are into British Humor and/or EVs.

 

[Agvg]

Yes but as the article mentions lots of folks are paying cash because they cant afford to finance…so they are spending around $4000 just to get something to drive. Today EV batteries cost 3 times that, much less a car to go with it. I would not expect that turnaround to happen for another few decades.

EVs do have expensive fuel. Combine the cost of the battery with electricity to charge and it’s not cheap. Also consider that many of these vehicles are 15-20 years old which in EV terms is ancient and would likely require a new battery. Truly the battery is the problem. Added cost over today’s gas vehicles out of the gate…then they have to be replaced in 10 or so years. We need a better power storage system.

Batteries will become cheaper, and overhauling of old batteries are not an impossible task, the point is that you can produce your own power by solar panels not needing to buy extremely costly gas or diesel. It all about economics and EVs are cheaper to use over time. And they pay high prices on cars for export to Africa, higher than the local market price. Old EVs are also exported but mostly to East Europe, so I suppose the batteries are fixed.

 

[WinterDeere]

Yes but as the article mentions lots of folks are paying cash because they cant afford to finance…so they are spending around $4000 just to get something to drive. Today EV batteries cost 3 times that, much less a car to go with it. I would not expect that turnaround to happen for another few decades.

You must be very young, or uniquely oblivious to history, to not have seen a consistent trend in every new tech starting off extremely expensive by comparison to its pricing at maturity. My father spent $18k in today's dollars, $5k in 1980, for less computing power than a 15 year old iPhone 3. That can be had for what... $30+shipping today? You should have seen what his parents paid for a television set!

Don't expect that the pricing of today's 1st generation BEV's will carry into tomorrow.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Batteries will become cheaper, and overhauling of old batteries are not an impossible task, the point is that you can produce your own power by solar panels not needing to buy extremely costly gas or diesel. It all about economics and EVs are cheaper to use over time. And they pay high prices on cars for export to Africa, higher than the local market price. Old EVs are also exported but mostly to East Europe, so I suppose the batteries are fixed.

Based on this report China may be #1 in EVs worldwide for years to come unless they focus on regaining former territory.

EV battery supplies is the tail that wags the EV dog. To export their $4000 USD EV into the west will 2X+ the selling price. BYD is building OK 250 m ile range EVs and may be able to compete with Tesla.

Baby-boomers will drive USA EV sales through the roof directly or by transferring their wealth to heirs. If Tesla pulls off the $25K well equipped EV by Christmas 2025 it may be end of tail dragging OEM players with no EVs by that time.

Time will tell .

 

[Agvg]

I'm afraid that many brands will die, Tesla is pushing the cost down and those that are late to the party will struggle. See VW wants to be a part of the future, and they have a lot in the planning.

 

[Jchonline]

Batteries will become cheaper, and overhauling of old batteries are not an impossible task, the point is that you can produce your own power by solar panels not needing to buy extremely costly gas or diesel. It all about economics and EVs are cheaper to use over time. And they pay high prices on cars for export to Africa, higher than the local market price. Old EVs are also exported but mostly to East Europe, so I suppose the batteries are fixed.

I wonder how much a solar setup would cost to L2 charge an EV? Remember you would need it to charge in the evening and on rainy days. I can tell you my offgrid solar setup was $50k and there is no chance I could pump 50kw into a vehicle to charge it and keep the house running.

 

[Jchonline]

You must be very young, or uniquely oblivious to history, to not have seen a consistent trend in every new tech starting off extremely expensive by comparison to its pricing at maturity. My father spent $18k in today's dollars, $5k in 1980, for less computing power an a 15 year old iPhone 3. That can be had for what... $30+shipping today? You should have seen what his parents paid for a television set!

Don't expect that the pricing of today's 1st generation BEV's will carry into tomorrow.

I said it would be a few decades before the battery tech is there, which is generous. To me a few decades is your "tomorrow." The first battery (partly) powered vehicle was the Prius, produced in 2000. That was 23 years ago. Lithium batteries hit mainstream vehicles in 2010. We have had no new production level tech gains in battery tech since that time. Of course they will come, but it isnt going to happen overnight. Lets check back in 20 years and see how things have progressed.

 

[sd455dan]

Yes but as the article mentions lots of folks are paying cash because they cant afford to finance…so they are spending around $4000 just to get something to drive. Today EV batteries cost 3 times that, much less a car to go with it. I would not expect that turnaround to happen for another few decades.

EVs do have expensive fuel. Combine the cost of the battery with electricity to charge and it’s not cheap. Also consider that many of these vehicles are 15-20 years old which in EV terms is ancient and would likely require a new battery. Truly the battery is the problem. Added cost over today’s gas vehicles out of the gate…then they have to be replaced in 10 or so years. We need a better power storage system.

Battery costs are dropping quickly.

Imagine how many used EVs will be around in another decade.
There will be a used battery take out industry from wrecked / parted out pick a part -pull and save as well.

The S curve is Just barely beginning and yet battery costs are already down almost 90% since 2008 according to the DOE

FOTW #1272, January 9, 2023: Electric Vehicle Battery Pack Costs in 2022 Are Nearly 90% Lower than in 2008, according to DOE Estimates

The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Vehicle Technologies Office estimates the cost of an electric vehicle lithium-ion battery pack declined 89% between 2008 and 2022 (using 2022 constant dollars).

www.energy.gov