California Drought

[dmccarty]

If I followed all the developments correctly, if that concret barrier falls, only the top 20-30 ft of the lake would drain.

Correct, but that top 20-30 feet is a BUNCH of water that would go downstream. And what kind of erosion would take place when that volume of water went over the embankment. Methinks the lake would loose more than 30 feet of water and that would be a disaster.

Later,
Dan

 

[coldsteelva]

I believe that would be 30 feet by 16,000 acres of water. Not a paltry amount of water.

 

[houstonscott]

I believe that would be 30 feet by 16,000 acres of water. Not a paltry amount of water.

The hole undermined is is another 30' below bottom of weir. Because is next to spillway it might be just washed away too.

 

[turnkey4099]

Correct, but that top 20-30 feet is a BUNCH of water that would go downstream. And what kind of erosion would take place when that volume of water went over the embankment. Methinks the lake would loose more than 30 feet of water and that would be a disaster.

Later,
Dan

Yes, that would be a real disaster. But if the dam itself were to wash out that would be a DISASTER SQUARED. From the beginning there have been wild claims of he dam failing. It isn't.

 

[dragoneggs]

I believe that would be 30 feet by 16,000 acres of water. Not a paltry amount of water.

Unless paltry = 20 billion cu ft. (if my quick math is correct) :shocked:

 

[California]

Aczlan, RedNeckGeek, thank you for your rational analyses here and your intelligent contributions over on Metabunk.

 

[buckeyefarmer]

I've been enjoying the pics on metabunk.

 

[California]

Correct, but that top 20-30 feet is a BUNCH of water that would go downstream. And what kind of erosion would take place when that volume of water went over the embankment. Methinks the lake would loose more than 30 feet of water and that would be a disaster.

If I understand what I'm reading over on Metabunk today, they are running the damaged spillway at a high rate intended to get the lake level down and provide capacity for the storm that is beginning now.
Oroville Dam Spillway Failure | Page 16 | Metabunk
So ideally water won't go over the emergency spillway in the near future while they are repairing erosion damage there and fortifying the discharge area.

Meanwhile there is concern whether the damaged primary spillway is continuing to erode. One theory is its floor collapsed where it gets steeper (halfway down) due to conditions beneath it at that location, or possibly due to the physics of this change in pitch, and if those are primary causes then migration of the damage upstream may be minimal.

The moderator on Metabunk has started a new thread focusing on just the spillway:
https://www.metabunk.org/oroville-dam-spillway-failure.t8381/page-15#post-200468

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I'm impressed with Metabunk because they are actively countering the fear/uncertainty/ doubt some others are bringing to this event. "The sky is falling!! Buy prepper supplies/firearms/gold coins from our advertisers right now while you can!! Operators are standing by to take your money!! :laughing:

 

[buckeyefarmer]

They have shown the main spillway has not gotten worse in the last couple days of high discharge. At current discharge rate they expect lake to still decrease with the current rain coming in.
They also want to clear debris backing up water to the power plant.

 

[dragoneggs]

The moderator on Metabunk has started a new thread focusing on just the spillway:
Oroville Dam Spillway Failure | Page 15 | Metabunk

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I'm impressed with Metabunk because they are actively countering the fear/uncertainty/ doubt some others are bringing to this event. "The sky is falling!! Buy prepper supplies/firearms/gold coins from our advertisers right now while you can!! Operators are standing by to take your money!! :laughing:

Yes, some good information over on Metabunk. Thanks for sharing. I do think it is understandable, that there is 'some' fear/uncertainity/doubt and that should be expected even though it seems the authorities are getting a handle on how to proceed in the near term to mitigate risk. As for those opportunists that are trying to scare folks into buying their products by touting dire straits... hopefully people will see through them and not over react. Prepping for a situation where you might be displaced from your home for a while does seem prudent though even if it is not likely considering the situation.