Consumer Electronics Show 2021 - John Deere gets a couple of "Worst in Show" awards

[PuffyC]

Back to the CES show...in one of my previous roles, I worked bon the floor of CES as a vendor/presenter (90s). Hard to imagine how that show now has tractor companies presenting.

Also amazing to hear how JD spins their fully autonomous tractor as some cutting edge concept when self-driving has been out for years and has been used in agriculture before. This is really a tiny and unnecessary 'improvement' where JD once again proves, that it is really a marketing company.

Serious question because I don't know, but what are these other fully autonomous tractors that have been around for years? Deere's system isn't just GPS guidance where it blindly follows some preplanned route, it uses 12 different cameras to see it's environment and can actively avoid obstacles. It can (according to Deere) find its way to a field on its own, plow and plant without human interaction, and can be controlled by a smartphone, all with no driver in the cab whatsoever. You could theoretically launch this while the tractor is still sitting in the barn, then go spend the morning doing some fishing or playing golf or whatever, and when you get back home the field is plowed or planted and the tractor is back in the barn. That's the pitch anyway.

 

[ovrszd]

Surely you don't believe total farm receipts in the US for all crops [wheat corn soy cotton etc etc] all animals [beef dairy pork and poultry etc etc] only add up to one hundred billion dollars do you. Don't you need to at least add the annual farm bill [another 42 billion annually] to that 40 billon?

But if you do add that, then you need to read the farm bill and see the pork barrel attached to it. Less than half the farm bill goes to farmers. Our welfare system is tied to it.

 

[ovrszd]

The vast majority of the US Farm Bill appropriation goes directly to the non-farm public in the form of EBT, SNAP and other nutritional assistance. Surely you don't believe the value of the entire bill is $42 Billion?

Dang it,,,, should have read down again. I gotta start paying closer attention.

 

[ovrszd]

Also amazing to hear how JD spins their fully autonomous tractor as some cutting edge concept when self-driving has been out for years and has been used in agriculture before. This is really a tiny and unnecessary 'improvement' where JD once again proves, that it is really a marketing company.

Yep. My friend has been using JD GPS guidance on their planting tractors, chemical sprayers and combines for several years. Always sets me back to watch the machinery go thru the field with no one touching the steering wheel. The planters are accurate to 1.5" now.

 

[ovrszd]

Serious question because I don't know, but what are these other fully autonomous tractors that have been around for years? Deere's system isn't just GPS guidance where it blindly follows some preplanned route, it uses 12 different cameras to see it's environment and can actively avoid obstacles. It can (according to Deere) find its way to a field on its own, plow and plant without human interaction, and can be controlled by a smartphone, all with no driver in the cab whatsoever. You could theoretically launch this while the tractor is still sitting in the barn, then go spend the morning doing some fishing or playing golf or whatever, and when you get back home the field is plowed or planted and the tractor is back in the barn. That's the pitch anyway.

I agree with some of their theory. But when they start talking about going fishing, etc., they overstated the product. At least the product they have now. Maybe in the future.

My friend's first statement to me when I brought it up was "who's going to fix the tillage tool when it loses a shovel, or repair the planter when a row stops functioning?" He was not impressed. And they are absolute JD Green.

 

[PuffyC]

I agree with some of their theory. But when they start talking about going fishing, etc., they overstated the product. At least the product they have now. Maybe in the future.

My friend's first statement to me when I brought it up was "who's going to fix the tillage tool when it loses a shovel, or repair the planter when a row stops functioning?" He was not impressed. And they are absolute JD Green.

That's like the EV thread that got closed - if you try hard enough you can always imagine a scenario where there will be an issue. I don't know much about these million dollar rigs but I'd assume it would be fairly trivial to build sensors to detect such problems, and when detected it messages you on your phone and either stops or returns to the shop or whatever else you tell it to do. So maybe you have 3 of these things going in 3 different fields and then a mechanic (or you) on duty to respond when and if any problems arise. Meanwhile you can still be fishing, you just may have to cut your trip short if something breaks. I could also see big operations where they have spares, and when a problem is detected the tractor automatically ditches the broken one, picks up the spare, then goes back to work all on it's own. What Deere's doing now is simply the first baby step towards what will someday be fully autonomous farming done by our robotic overlords

 

[RickB]

I don't know much about these million dollar rigs

There, I fixed it for you.

 

[PuffyC]

There, I fixed it for you.

I'm all ears and eager to learn - educate me.

 

[ovrszd]

That's like the EV thread that got closed - if you try hard enough you can always imagine a scenario where there will be an issue. I don't know much about these million dollar rigs but I'd assume it would be fairly trivial to build sensors to detect such problems, and when detected it messages you on your phone and either stops or returns to the shop or whatever else you tell it to do. So maybe you have 3 of these things going in 3 different fields and then a mechanic (or you) on duty to respond when and if any problems arise. Meanwhile you can still be fishing, you just may have to cut your trip short if something breaks. I could also see big operations where they have spares, and when a problem is detected the tractor automatically ditches the broken one, picks up the spare, then goes back to work all on it's own. What Deere's doing now is simply the first baby step towards what will someday be fully autonomous farming done by our robotic overlords

I'm surrounded my multi million dollar machines. I watch them during planting and harvest season with interest. I see all the complexities. I encourage technological development. It has already moved my friend's operation forward. But advertising fantasy and reality have a big spread between them. I yield to my friend's family who has much more knowledge about these advances than I do.

My friends tested a new combine design this Fall. They were intrigued by it's speed of operation. But they were turned off by it's uniqueness. None of the local dealerships stock and unit specific repair parts. They won't be purchasing one until more development and R&D is done. They don't want to be the guinea pig.

Same thing applies to this tractor design. JD uses it's customers to finalize R&D. A buyer of the latest/greatest product doesn't want to be that pig.

I'm all about it. But we aren't there yet. How about JD developing something such as this and offering it free to it's largest customers for R&D. Work out the details. Then offer it for sale. What a concept.

 

[RickB]

I'm all ears and eager to learn - educate me.

Not my job. But you might want to look into the number of ground engaging elements on todays large planting and tillage equipment before claiming it would be trivial to install sensors to detect faults.

 

[PuffyC]

Same thing applies to this tractor design. JD uses it's customers to finalize R&D. A buyer of the latest/greatest product doesn't want to be that pig.

I'm all about it. But we aren't there yet. How about JD developing something such as this and offering it free to it's largest customers for R&D. Work out the details. Then offer it for sale. What a concept.

That seems to be most companies these days (using paying customers as beta testers). Being in high tech I can say there are a lot of reasons for that, some are good and some are bad.

It does sound like Deere let some farmers try out their autonomous tractor though. According to this article they started real-world testing on some guys farm 4 years ago so it sounds like some folks get to test stuff for free for the purposes of R&D.

Not my job. But you might want to look into the number of ground engaging elements on todays large planting and tillage equipment before claiming it would be trivial to install sensors to detect faults.

I never claimed it would be trivial, I said I didn't know but I assume it would be trivial. Those are different statements with different meanings. Based on your response I also assumed you might have some actual experience with telematics, sensor design and machine learning but it sounds like that might be another bad assumption on my part. Regardless, if we can design rockets that can transport cargo to a station floating in outer space then land that rocket back on Earth vertically, I have to think we could (theoretically) design something that can detect when a tractor implement breaks. Before autonomous tractors there probably wasn't too much of a market for that but going forward there surely will be.

 

[ovrszd]

That seems to be most companies these days (using paying customers as beta testers). Being in high tech I can say there are a lot of reasons for that, some are good and some are bad.

It does sound like Deere let some farmers try out their autonomous tractor though. According to this article they started real-world testing on some guys farm 4 years ago so it sounds like some folks get to test stuff for free for the purposes of R&D.


I never claimed it would be trivial, I said I didn't know but I assume it would be trivial. Those are different statements with different meanings. Based on your response I also assumed you might have some actual experience with telematics, sensor design and machine learning but it sounds like that might be another bad assumption on my part. Regardless, if we can design rockets that can transport cargo to a station floating in outer space then land that rocket back on Earth vertically, I have to think we could (theoretically) design something that can detect when a tractor implement breaks. Before autonomous tractors there probably wasn't too much of a market for that but going forward there surely will be.

It's my assumption that you partly missed the point. So you have a sensor on every moving part. It detects an error and codes the machine to stop. Owner is notified on his phone. He's 20 miles away picking up parts for another breakdown. Someone has to go "reset" the autonomous machine......

Does this happen hourly? No.
Does it happen daily? More than likely, yes. Possibly multiple times a day.
Is it a cost savings for the owner to stop what he's doing and "reset" the machine multiple times a day? No.

It's more cost effective to have reliable operators on the tractor or at a minimum in the field with it.
So it becomes much less cost effective to pay the gigantic cost of the autonomous machine. After all, it's only financial advantage is eliminating an operator from the payroll.

We just aren't there yet.

 

[California]

Is it a cost savings for the owner to stop what he's doing and "reset" the machine multiple times a day? No.

Would such a complex machine be programmed to lock out any owner intervention and require that only a Deere (etc) tech could touch it? It would be pointless for the owner to go out to look at the tractor if he can't touch it.

I'm thinking of an example that I think was in this thread or maybe I read it elsewhere: An owner drained the water out of a fuel filter but couldn't reset the 'check engine' dashboard warning light that the water had caused. A dealer tech had to come out - expensive, maybe slow - and plug in his laptop containing the reset software. The reset software isn't available to the public nor could it be applied remotely.

 

[ovrszd]

Would such a complex machine be programmed to lock out any owner intervention and require that only a Deere (etc) tech could touch it? It would be pointless for the owner to go out to look at the tractor if he can't touch it.

I'm thinking of an example that I think was in this thread or maybe I read it elsewhere: An owner drained the water out of a fuel filter but couldn't reset the 'check engine' dashboard warning light that the water had caused. A dealer tech had to come out - expensive, maybe slow - and plug in his laptop containing the reset software. The reset software isn't available to the public nor could it be applied remotely.

If the problem is with the tractor, probably the dealer will have to come out. But what if it's just a piece of corn stalk covering a sensor......

Slightly different but similar. If your one and only key fob quits or gets lost on new vehicles, it has to be towed to an authorized dealer to program a new fob. Most fobs cost $250-ish and up. I heard a parts guy price one to a customer that was $380. Another $150 or so for a tow, depending on distance. $400 and up to replace the fob......

 

[3gunr]

All this is why most small farmers have gone to leasing out their land , Get a check and not worry about all the debt.

 

[ovrszd]

All this is why most small farmers have gone to leasing out their land , Get a check and not worry about all the debt.

In our area for sure. Most of the small farmers make the majority of their income off farm.

I own 150, 75 tillable. No way I can afford to farm it.

 

[priberc]

The vast majority of the US Farm Bill appropriation goes directly to the non-farm public in the form of EBT, SNAP and other nutritional assistance. Surely you don't believe the value of the entire bill is $42 Billion?

I guess I did not make my point clear/you missed the point and focused on your farm bill that requires any food programs for schools/soup kitchens/food banks and the like to buy American. And yes protectionism is a form of subsidy. The point I was trying to make is that 40% of all farm receipts are direct subsidies. Doing a search I have a figure of 197 billion from cash crops alone in 2020. 40% of that would be 80 billion. The entire agricultural industry in the US is worth 1.1 trillion. Do the math ,if that 1.1 trillion is subsidized at 40% that works out to 440 billion dollars. If for some reason those supports were substantially cut the agriculture industry in the US would collapse because it is not self sustaining/is hooked on corporate welfare and relies on those subsidies to keep the doors open. Subsidies of any kind goes against some basic free market principles. A quote from Investopedia for you to consider.
"A free market is one where voluntary exchange and the laws of supply and demand provide the sole basis for the economic system ,without government intervention. A key feature of a free market is the absence of coerced [forced] transactions or conditions [conditions like tariffs for example] on transactions".

 

[priberc]

Serious question because I don't know, but what are these other fully autonomous tractors that have been around for years? Deere's system isn't just GPS guidance where it blindly follows some preplanned route, it uses 12 different cameras to see it's environment and can actively avoid obstacles. It can (according to Deere) find its way to a field on its own, plow and plant without human interaction, and can be controlled by a smartphone, all with no driver in the cab whatsoever. You could theoretically launch this while the tractor is still sitting in the barn, then go spend the morning doing some fishing or playing golf or whatever, and when you get back home the field is plowed or planted and the tractor is back in the barn. That's the pitch anyway.

For at least a decade farmers in Europe have been driving the tractors to the field. Opening the gate ,setting up the GPS/computers ,hitting start. Then going home to say clean out the barn feed/milk the dairy herd for example. Coming back at the end of the day and the tractor is parked beside the gate waiting for the farmer to drive it back to the yard. Its not a pitch

 

[RickB]

You pinned the cost of the US farm bill at $42 billion. That wasn't a misunderstanding on my part, it was a large error on yours.
Schooling me on the attributes of a free market is unnecessary, I understand what that is and isn't. Much of Canada's ag production is regulated/controlled/subsidized as much as that of the US, albeit in different ways.

 

[priberc]

You pinned the cost of the US farm bill at $42 billion. That wasn't a misunderstanding on my part, it was a large error on yours.
Schooling me on the attributes of a free market is unnecessary, I understand what that is and isn't. Much of Canada's ag production is regulated/controlled/subsidized as much as that of the US, albeit in different ways.

Not me that pinned the 42 [actually the 42 was a typo on my part it was 46.5] billion dollar price tag on anything. Yet again you miss/deflect from the point I was making.
If the entire agricultural industry in the US is hooked on corporate welfare to the tune of 40% your food security is severely compromised.