How about digging down to the ledge, and clearing off the bottom of the hole with a shop vac for clean access to the ledge. Use a hammer drill to drill a couple 3/4" holes, and use the epoxy set 5/8 threaded rod anchors.
Then use the heaviest reinforcing "z-rated" strap you can find, I'm thinking something like this
Simpson Strong-Tie Z-MAX 18 in. Galvanized Medium Strap-MSTA18Z - The Home Depot
or this
Simpson Strong-Tie DTT ZMAX 14-Gauge Galvanized Deck Tension Tie-DTT1Z - The Home Depot
to bolt it down.
The potential problem I can see is what if it's not the ice and frost grabbing the sides of the post (as your PVC idea would protect you from) but layers forming between the ledge and the bottom of the post simply jacking it up from the bottom? In that case, I'm not sure even straps would help you, the frost might be strong enough to rip the wood free from straps.
If frost can pull out EVERY guard rail end on I-80 through western PA, it can get some force behind it.
Is the ledge dead flat or at an angle at the bottom of the hole? If it is at an angle, can you do anything like cutting grooves or something to encourage the water to keep going past the post, and not linger? Maybe widen the downslope side of the hole just above the ledge and fill with extra gravel?
Just spitballing ideas here, feel free to shoot any of them down that you know won't work, because that might spark the next one that will.
Then use the heaviest reinforcing "z-rated" strap you can find, I'm thinking something like this
Simpson Strong-Tie Z-MAX 18 in. Galvanized Medium Strap-MSTA18Z - The Home Depot
or this
Simpson Strong-Tie DTT ZMAX 14-Gauge Galvanized Deck Tension Tie-DTT1Z - The Home Depot
to bolt it down.
The potential problem I can see is what if it's not the ice and frost grabbing the sides of the post (as your PVC idea would protect you from) but layers forming between the ledge and the bottom of the post simply jacking it up from the bottom? In that case, I'm not sure even straps would help you, the frost might be strong enough to rip the wood free from straps.
If frost can pull out EVERY guard rail end on I-80 through western PA, it can get some force behind it.
Is the ledge dead flat or at an angle at the bottom of the hole? If it is at an angle, can you do anything like cutting grooves or something to encourage the water to keep going past the post, and not linger? Maybe widen the downslope side of the hole just above the ledge and fill with extra gravel?
Just spitballing ideas here, feel free to shoot any of them down that you know won't work, because that might spark the next one that will.