I've read quite a few of the geo thermal posts and thought I'd write about my experiences of getting one of them installed in our new house. Being a retired (if not retarded) engineer, it seemed like a good idea. However, if you want to know how much it'll cost before installation vrs. how much you really need to buy, well, that's another issue entirely. Let me explain.
First of all, the financials are all there if you stay in the house for a while. There is an up front cost that makes a geo system cost at least 30% more (and possibly a lot more) than a regular system. But because our federal government can print and pass out free money, these systems can be discounted substantially through tax credits.
Payback for geo varies with where you live and cost of heating and electricity, of course. Estimated annual geo costs for us is under $900/year, just about the same as heating with wood. But it includes AC year round, so for right now, for us, the estimate is break even, with the side benefit of AC, something we've never personally had before.
The real cost driver is the connection between the geo pump and the earth. Several variations exist for establishing the connection, but comes down to making a field of buried pipe or a well system. We found you can either bury an indeterminate amount of pipe below the frost line (600-900 feet/ton of capacity) or drill a well for about the same price, about $10k.
There seems no science in setting up a geo system, and nearly every financial decision must be based on rules of thumbs because nobody measures soil thermal conductivity or has thermal estimating systems that can actually be driven by individual house designs.
Again in our area, most geo "installers" turn out to be simple contractors who sub out nearly all the work. We found they are charging about $12k over subcontractor and material quotes that we've received for a complete system. Without exception all installers claimed to "know how to properly install geo systems" but say that more than half of their business is cleaning up the botched installations of others. WITHOUT EXCEPTION!
It is a very discouraging situation because the potential energy savings and operating costs in geo systems really are exceptional, but with such buffoonery going on, installing such an expensive system shouldn't be trusted too far from home. In most cases a geo installation is therefor a project that only masochists or the insane will enjoy.
We are building a new home and found that an ordinary natural gas installation for the house was about $13k for the ductwork, and something around $2k for a quality conventional furnace. Geo installation quotes included ductwork and came in at about $22k. These do not include the ground loop/well portion of the system which is where most of the "risk" actually is.
If you don't have enough ground radiation, you'll run out of heating or cooling capacity no matter how hard the geo pump works. With closed ground loops the only "safe" thing is to bury lots and lots of pipe. In well systems, the "rule of thumb" is that you need 140 feet of well for every ton of capacity. In our case the other rules of thumb indicate that we should have a 4-ton geo pump, thus we "need" an almost 600' well. There's no mention, of course, about how much water should be in the well, only how deep it should be!
So for us, the whole project seems to be one of buying heating/cooling capacity without knowing or being about to figure out just what the real need is. The solution sold by contractors seems simply one of installing, probably, way too much capacity. If you have too much capacity the system efficiency drops (thus raising the operating cost), but you'll never know it because the system "works." Too little capacity will show up when you can't heat or cool the house to the temperature you like, and then it's too late to fix it!
We are about a month from firing up our geo system for the first time. I wish this project was more fun than it has turned out to be because of all the uncertainties and the added cost of covering for them.
But the bottom line is that when the geo system is actually running, without exception, the costs of operation will be lower than with conventional heating. For us the payback is something around 8 years, if all goes well.