Global Warming?

[IslandTractor]

Cat I think you are more confused than usual and have a bad memory too.

First you claim there are 31000 scientists who dispute AGW. Where did you get that number? There probably aren't that many scientists working on climate change issues in the universe. And as you know the vast majority support the notion of AGW, you are saying there must be millions of scientists working on climate change. I don't think so.

Second, you quote a description of a study that proves my point, not yours: I haven't read it but if Anderegg's study shows 97-98% of scientists support a consensus statement on AGW then that is a slam dunk. That is consensus. You are naive if you think there is ever 100% consensus on an active topic of research. And you clearly haven't ever done science if you can make a statement like "data is data".

Third, you quote that study also showing that the 2-3% of scientists who do not support the consensus statement publish only half as many papers. That means the skeptics are not as productive and unlikely to be doing as much climate research.

Fourth, I cannot believe you quote that stupid Daily Mail article AGAIN! We just discussed that a month ago after you posted it. It is utter crap. The Met Office (source of the data) says the reporter was an idiot. He completely screwed up that story which has been well documented (including here on TBN). And you bring it up AGAIN. Can you not remember that far back?

What are you drinking? Stronger than Kool Aid for sure.

 

[toppop52]

Meanwhile we just had the earliest snow on record yesterday...

 

[newbury]

Meanwhile we just had the earliest snow on record yesterday...

After the warmest spring on record.
U.S. experienced second warmest May, warmest spring on record, NOAA reports

 

[IslandTractor]

Meanwhile we just had the earliest snow on record yesterday...

I would have thought Maryland has occasionally been hit with Noreasters like this in the past. We don't expect serious snow until Xmas but occasional storms like this are par for the course a couple hundred miles north of you.

 

[toppop52]

Never happened here before that I can find. West of here and north, not here. When you say Maryland, you encompass three different climate regions, ours being the mildest. We've averaged below normal since mid October this year, but like last spring, one season does not make for a climate change.

 

[IslandTractor]

one season does not make for a climate change.

We agree, and single weather events, unless truly unique, do not either. Random variation provides enough "background noise" that patterns rather than events are more reliable indicators of change.

 

[toppop52]

I really we think most rational people realize that weather and climate is a fluid and forever changes, where some differ is the mechanism. I choke on the politics of it and increasingly the science is muddled in the politics.

 

[turnkey4099]

After the warmest spring on record.
U.S. experienced second warmest May, warmest spring on record, NOAA reports

And my area had the wettest October on record - obviously means the earth is going into flood stage.

Harry K

 

[turnkey4099]

After the warmest spring on record.
U.S. experienced second warmest May, warmest spring on record, NOAA reports

And my area had the wettest October on record - obviously means the earth is going into flood stage.

Harry K

 

[tcreeley]

In Maine -45th or so lat, we had a bit less than an inch of snow. It has rained all day since, still raining. It really is a very warm fall. We have only had 2 days of low 20's, 3-4 low 30's, everything else 40's-60's. (september to today) Global warming has significantly shifted the weather patters. Our weather makers are now from the south.-balmy!

GW ended 16 years ago- crap!

 

[tcreeley]

In Maine -45th or so lat, we had a bit less than an inch of snow. It has rained all day since, still raining. It really is a very warm fall. We have only had 2 days of low 20's, 3-4 low 30's, everything else 40's-60's. (september to today) Global warming has significantly shifted the weather patters. Our weather makers are now from the south.-balmy!

GW ended 16 years ago- crap!


update: It is still raining and Sunday it is supposed to be 54 during the day. That's a bit warm for November!:laughing:

 

[tcreeley]

Natural Cycles are not cause of the Warming Trend
October 22, 2012; 3:35 PM

How do we know that the pronounced global warming trend during the 20th and 21st century is not caused by natural cycles?

The National Academy of Science (NAS) presents a short video to explain why there is a greater than 90% chance that the global warming trend over the past 50 to 60 years is due to the burning of fossil fuels and other greenhouse gas emissions and not natural cycles.

 

[toppop52]

How do they explain the 25 years of average cooling in the middle? Because the top scientists in be world basically agreed that there was cooling between 1950-1972-75? That is until the last 15 years or so when the modern AGW group rearranged the data, cherry picked what fit their agenda, then claimed it didn't really cool, all those thermometers were just crazy.

 

[murphy1244]

How do they explain the 25 years of average cooling in the middle? Because the top scientists in be world basically agreed that there was cooling between 1950-1972-75? That is until the last 15 years or so when the modern AGW group rearranged the data, cherry picked what fit their agenda, then claimed it didn't really cool, all those thermometers were just crazy.

Yep, They called it back to the ice age.

 

[toppop52]

They certainly beat the drums for 10 years about how we're headed to the next ice age how that in 10-15 years the climate of Atlanta would be as cold as then current Minneapolis. It's just not credible that many ow claim it didn't happen when the media recorded it all. Many people my age remember it well.

 

[IslandTractor]

How do they explain the 25 years of average cooling in the middle? Because the top scientists in be world basically agreed that there was cooling between 1950-1972-75? That is until the last 15 years or so when the modern AGW group rearranged the data, cherry picked what fit their agenda, then claimed it didn't really cool, all those thermometers were just crazy.

It is not that simple. Most scientists predicted warming in the 70's although there certainly were some who predicted cooling. Read the following: What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s? and http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1

And here is a chart that shows the numbers of papers predicting warming vs cooling over time:

 

[toppop52]

That's very misleading though, by the time the warming predictions outnumbered the cooling predictions, the cooling cycle was ending and we were warming. If I go outside and it's 80 at 7 AM, it's not hard to predict a hot day.

 

[IslandTractor]

That's very misleading though, by the time the warming predictions outnumbered the cooling predictions, the cooling cycle was ending and we were warming. If I go outside and it's 80 at 7 AM, it's not hard to predict a hot day.

Read the advanced version at the link I posted. The paper from the meteorological society also deals verydirectly with the various myths. They have some very detailed explanations and this issue really has been resolved by the the scientific community. Still lots of controversy in AGW but not so much about the cooling period due to aerosols in the 70's.

 

[toppop52]

How were they resolved? You can't change history and through the 60's and first half of the 70's, scientists believed the cooling would continue. No matter who wrote what later, it doesn't effect what was real and what was believed at that time. Same as what is real and what is believed now, no matter how we reinterpret later, it will in no way change the reality of what was. That is a fool's argument. (meant rhetorically)

 

[Grumpy Old Man]

Trying to reduce ozone depletion is a good Idea if it were a global aspiration ,Since America seems to be the only one truly concerned and many countries could care less about the problem we again are spending money for a lost cause considering the lack of compliance around the world ! It's a battle that will never be won due to population gains and a serious economic downturn world wide .