First, a quick reply to BB_TX -- Floridians is traditional, but some call us Floridiots.. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif
tractroErnie, I 'm sorry to say that Vero Beach is currently the center of the projected track. That's about 20 -30 miles North of me, here in Port St. Lucie. If their place is out on the beach, they may have flooding -- the storm surge is projected to reach about 13 feet, and most of the island is about 10' high. If they're on the inland side of the Intracoastal, they should fare a little better. The good news (for now) is that the storm is weakening a little -- at least as it passes over the Bahamas. It may gain strength again as it passes over the open waters of the Gulf Stream before making landfall on the mainland.
To check the current track, click on
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ , then on "Maps and Charts", then on either the 3 day or 5 day graphic. The current map shows the center of the track making landfall just a little North of a line drawn horizontally across the top of Lake Okeechobee. That area is approximately the location of Vero Beach. The map changes every 6 hours, at 5:00 and 11:00 EDT. Each map for the past 3 days has shown a little wobble in the track, from Melbourne, a little North of Vero, to Hobe Sound, somewhat South of Vero. But, it always seems to come back the the happy medium, which is somewhere between Vero Beach and Fort Pierce. Poor choice of words -- not very happy for your folks.
It's also very interesting to read the discussion, which tells a little of how the forecaster arrived at his decisions.
