Generally speaking, it is possible to spend as much on a hydrostatic transmission catastrophic repair as one would spend on a major overhaul of the motor that drives the hydro in question. It can possibly match the value of the fully functional tractor if the repair is done at shop rate. As for the probability, I think of a quip in this month's Reader's Digest. The chances of mortality from a given disease may be 0.1% for the public at large, but if it happens to you, it's 100%. If one owns and maintains a machine from day one, the probablity of catastrophic failure due to poor maintainence is managed by the owner. Buying a used machine without warranty with an unknown maintainence and repair history eliminates any prediction of reliability. The classic 'pig in a poke'. It's all about how lucky you feel, and how much you want to spend.