Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet?

   / Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet? #41  
“While you could be robbed, you'll get caught with it and they will confiscate it because they assume you're up to "no good."

Not true. If you cross borders cash has to be declared. Inside the US no such requirement.
I know of people who have been "robbed" of their cash by the LEOs, they were pulled over for some reason, and found to have a significant amount of cash on their person, (as I recall, around 60 to 70 thousand $) claimed they were enroute to buy a tree trimming truck. Anyway, right or wrong, they lost it all!
 
   / Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet? #42  
I know of people who have been "robbed" of their cash by the LEOs, they were pulled over for some reason, and found to have a significant amount of cash on their person, (as I recall, around 60 to 70 thousand $) claimed they were enroute to buy a tree trimming truck. Anyway, right or wrong, they lost it all!
It's called "Civil Asset Forfeiture", and originally was used against drug dealers and other illegal activities. They can seize your assets without charging you with a crime if they believe they may be affiliated with criminal activity.
 
   / Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet?
  • Thread Starter
#43  
The entire thing with bitcoin is to create scarcity. Scarcity is the thing they believe will drive higher prices long term.

Full disclosure, I own bitcoin.

With that said, I am fully aware there is zero underlying assets supporting bitcoin. It's all a belief in something.

One thing about a currency is it must be transferable in many different denominations. For example, $1,10, 100 etc. Currency must easy to scale to support buying anything from $1.00 to $1,000 conveniently. Will bitcoin have this, Nope. WIll someone really use bitcoin as the preferred money to buy my bike for sale for .6258 bitcoin? Nope. It's not a easily transferable currency, unless both parties have the technical ability to make it work, which is new for this world, a technical component to buy and sell. Also, the value changes so fast that one must look up what the value is constanly to figure out what they have. For these resons, it will never be a currency.

It's a speculative investment that has no intrinsic value. Never forget this.

I am hoping when I want to sell my bitcoins, I can. Just like with gold and silver, it's easy to buy, but trying to off load it at scale is next to impossible.

Each Bitcoin is made up by 100,000,000 satoshi. In fact, the only thing that is exchanged are satoshi but when somebody has 100M of them, we call it one Bitcoin. So we do have smaller numbers. More to the point, since Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a store of wealth and its own "asset class," which is attracting more and more institutional attention and driving up the price, transferring Bitcoin from one address to another address is expected to become more and more expensive. As a result of this expectation, Bitcoin, through BitcoinOS' Grail is getting bridged to Cardano. From a Bitcoin user's perspective they will not even know the "work" was done off-chain on a Cardano-based network.

What we're seeing is the continuing transition from physical assets to digital assets. We use to possess music, movies, TV shows, retail sales, et cetra as physically held media. Now those things are largely stored electronically for faster transmission, better security and better long-term storage. Speaking as a real estate broker, with the rise of title scams, the industry is looking for a way to protect titles using blockchain technology.

Years ago, a white paper was written suggesting that (1) the USA create a new Space Force Armed Branch, and (2) that the USA start using blockchain to secure state secrets. With the incoming administration rumors are swirling (everybody involved has signed non disclosure agreements, but why did you guys go to X and meet with X?) that the Cardano network is being considered for securing public votes to state secrets.

Anyway, blockchain is an evolving tech and while there are teething problems and not every crypto token will survive, we are seeing the formation of what will happen in the future and Bitcoin will remain the apex token for storing wealth, or "digital gold," with less hassle for transferring, storing, maintaining security.

As I type here are the ten largest blockchain tokens by market cap.

Screen Shot 2024-12-23 at 3.51.14 PM.png
 
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   / Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet? #44  
I have my signal...the top is in.
 
   / Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet?
  • Thread Starter
#45  
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   / Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet? #46  
Michael Saylor, Chairman of Microstrategy, in an interview shared that he believes Bitcoin at $100K is trading at a 90% discount to its value. Microstrategy was at the apex of the best performing publicly traded companies for 2024. For his part, Saylor gave one of the best keynotes as to why Bitcoin is the best available investment on the planet.

May I ask why does Microstrategy not buy long dated call options to ensure continued accretion in case BTC price skyrockets?
 
   / Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet?
  • Thread Starter
#47  
May I ask why does Microstrategy not buy long dated call options to ensure continued accretion in case BTC price skyrockets?

Earlier this year MSTR announced a $42B Bitcoin acquisition of Bitcoin. Half was to be raised through share dilution and the other half through convertible bonds. Even though dilution and MSTR trading around 2.5x its net asset value, Microstrategy performed exceptionally well. The convertible Bonds are effectively an interest free loan because piles of bond managers want Bitcoin exposure, but their disciple doesn't permit owning Bitcoin.

That said, rather than buying options, a more reliable method to lock in profits is by selling options against your position until called.

What I can guarantee is that Michael Saylor's strategy will be taught in business school for decades to come.

 
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   / Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet? #48  
In other CEO news from 2002 …

Enron Chairman Kenneth L. Lay exhorted employees in September to buy more Enron shares and reassured them that the company’s upcoming quarterly financial report was “looking great” only weeks before the energy trader disclosed the worst results in its history and a billion-dollar write-down that destroyed its public credibility.

“Talk up the stock and talk positively about Enron to your family and friends,” Lay told employees via an electronic forum Sept. 26 with Enron offices around the world. A transcript of the forum was obtained Friday by The Times. “The company is fundamentally sound. At current stock prices . . . this seems to be an incredibly cheap stock.
 
   / Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet? #49  
I don’t know anything about bitcoins, but I wish I invested in nVidia stock for all the miners :).
 
   / Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet?
  • Thread Starter
#50  
In other CEO news from 2002 …

Enron Chairman Kenneth L. Lay exhorted employees in September to buy more Enron shares and reassured them that the company’s upcoming quarterly financial report was “looking great” only weeks before the energy trader disclosed the worst results in its history and a billion-dollar write-down that destroyed its public credibility.

“Talk up the stock and talk positively about Enron to your family and friends,” Lay told employees via an electronic forum Sept. 26 with Enron offices around the world. A transcript of the forum was obtained Friday by The Times. “The company is fundamentally sound. At current stock prices . . . this seems to be an incredibly cheap stock.

You're making a category error. Saylor's strategy is accretive and generally well understood (Ben Gram wrote about arbitraging bonds and stocks in his seminal book, The Intelligent Investor in 1947). But if you don't believe MSTR is on the right track, buy puts and short the common.

CNBC interviewed Saylor on the news that Microstrategy was being shorted by a hedge fund. Saylor responded.

 

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