KS family die in plane crash

[ray66v]

Gawd it looks like a port to starboard collision. Did the pilot see something,
slow, call a mayday then get dragged up to speed explaining the anomoly in speed? Something looks awry here no matter how you look at it.

A collision is not being considered as a possible cause. There would be no dilemma here. It would have been recorded on radar, and any aircraft in that airspace would have been controlled, and separated.

Also this aircraft almost undoubtedly has collision avoidance equipment on board.

Looks like there was no distress call.

 

[RoyJackson]

A collision is not being considered as a possible cause. There would be no dilemma here. It would have been recorded on radar, and any aircraft in that airspace would have been controlled, and separated.

Also this aircraft almost undoubtedly has collision avoidance equipment on board.

Looks like there was no distress call.

One pilot did report a "Mayday", but apparently nothing after that. I haven't read of any distress calls or other communications to ATC.

It appears (so far) that part of the wing was lost in flight, which could account for the damage to the fuselage...or, that could have been cut open by the rescue/retrieval personnel.

Although the only place I've seen it mentioned was on the Flight Aware site ray66v mentioned...and even this was just forum talk...was weather conditions. The poster from the Florida area did state there was severe weather.

 

[ray66v]

The Flight Aware composite which includes radar, shows clear skies in the area.

Pilots in who claimed they had flown in the area that day, have posted there was turbulence, and icing at that altitude.

This photo of the opposite side, shows considerable ground impact damage to the fuselage:
http://baynews9.com/content/news/ar...r/articleBody/image.img.jpg/1339186807257.jpg

The reports are that the investigators are currently completely puzzled, by this accident. If there was clear evidence of a hole blown in the aircraft, they would not be scratching their heads.

 

[RoyJackson]

The Flight Aware composite which includes radar, shows clear skies in the area.

Pilots in who claimed they had flown in the area that day, have posted there was turbulence, and icing at that altitude.

This photo of the opposite side, shows considerable ground impact damage to the fuselage:
http://baynews9.com/content/news/ar...r/articleBody/image.img.jpg/1339186807257.jpg

The reports are that the investigators are currently completely puzzled, by this accident. If there was clear evidence of a hole blown in the aircraft, they would not be scratching their heads.

Well, if the outboard section of the right wing did come off, it could have hit the fuselage.

 

[ray66v]

Well, if the outboard section of the right wing did come off, it could have hit the fuselage.

Yes, I had not though about that.

You usually need a thunderstorm to break a wing like that, but judging by the radar reports, there could have been some incredibly unusual wind shear there.

 

[TCJatko]

These are the final Miami Center radar reports from flight aware, the aircraft had flow between 279 and 291 degrees climbing to 26,000 for approximately 26 minutes, after departing from KFPR to clear customs.

12:32PM course 291 degrees, speed 147 knots, 24,700ft, 480fpm Climbing

12:33PM course 87 degrees, speed 147knots, 25,200ft, 600fpm Climbing

12:34PM course 57 degrees, speed 68knots, 26,000ft, 360fpm Climbing

12:35PM course 43 degrees, speed 69knots, 26,000ft Level

12:36PM course 43 degrees, speed 255knts, 26,000ft Level

12:37PM course 43 degrees, speed 255knts, 26,000ft Level

12:38PM course 309 degrees speed 255knts, 26,000, -720fpm

The initial turn seems to occurred at the same time the aircraft was at, or below stall speed.

The final return with 309 degrees appears to erroneous as the on course heading would have been about that, and the aircraft never seemed to turn on course based on the track.

There certainly was something incredible happening with the speeds.

If these figures are accurate, the aircraft must have encountered some extreme weather event. I remember reading an accident report about an airliner that flew through a microburst while landing. At first they encountered an extreme headwind, which raised indicated airspeed and caused the aircrew to reduce thrust. Ater they got through that burst, realized what happened, and then acquired a strong tailwind, they were too slow and too low to recover. The aircraft crashed short of the runway. I'm guessing some dramatic wind event happened that reduced , and then dramatically increased, aircraft groundspeed and exceeded aircraft structural limits.

 

[ray66v]

If these figures are accurate, the aircraft must have encountered some extreme weather event. I remember reading an accident report about an airliner that flew through a microburst while landing. At first they encountered an extreme headwind, which raised indicated airspeed and caused the aircrew to reduce thrust. Ater they got through that burst, realized what happened, and then acquired a strong tailwind, they were too slow and too low to recover. The aircraft crashed short of the runway. I'm guessing some dramatic wind event happened that reduced , and then dramatically increased, aircraft groundspeed and exceeded aircraft structural limits.

Wind shear is a very serious problem for aircraft when they are near the ground. because there is not time for you to recover. Most major airports now have wind shear detectors, so pilots can be warned that they should expect sudden changes.

They are less troublesome at altitude.

Unfortunately, the sudden unplanned, unrequested, and unauthorized change in direction. Appears to have happened right before the changes in ground speed occurred.

There was no apparent severe up or down draft, because there was no change in altitude. Theoretically, the aircraft could transition through this type of wind shear, without difficulty, as long as it's speed relative to the air mass, was above it's stall speed, and it's air speed never exceeds the maximum structural speed of the aircraft.

If the speed event caused the aircraft to become damaged, it is interesting that it did maintain altitude, and travel in a very controlled manor for 25 miles, which it should have difficulty doing with the right outboard wing severely damaged, much less departed. As well as any other control surface, or major damage to the airframe.

Their also appears to have been enough time for the aircraft to have notified Miami Center what was happening after they went rouge, and center certainly would have been trying to contact them after they went off course. Yet, neither made contact, further deepening the mystery.

 

[Todd727]

The Flight Aware composite which includes radar, shows clear skies in the area.

I hate to wade in to this, but Flightaware doesn't memorialize the weather with the track. Compare the radar return right now with the radar return on FlightAware:

NWS radar image loop of Base Reflectivity from Melbourne, FL

FlightAware > N950KA

Airline pilots did report TSTMS and icing at those flight levels around the time of the accident.

As an accident investigator, it is interesting to see the rampant speculation from a couple of photographs of a small area of the accident site.

I'd caution folks from picking a theory and trying to make the evidence fit. That is the opposite of the way it's done. The NTSB folks on the ground will get a pretty good grasp on this event in due course.

Flightaware radar data and derived GS and track are not going to be of high fidelity during such a rapid event.

Finally, an inadvertent encounter with a moderate or strong TSTM in a small plane can easily result in an upset. Stall, Spin, Crash, Die is a mantra that many pilots are familiar with.

Condolences to the families.

 

[RoyJackson]

I hate to wade in to this, but Flightaware doesn't memorialize the weather with the track. Compare the radar return right now with the radar return on FlightAware:

NWS radar image loop of Base Reflectivity from Melbourne, FL

FlightAware > N950KA

Airline pilots did report TSTMS and icing at those flight levels around the time of the accident.

As an accident investigator, it is interesting to see the rampant speculation from a couple of photographs of a small area of the accident site.

I'd caution folks from picking a theory and trying to make the evidence fit. That is the opposite of the way it's done. The NTSB folks on the ground will get a pretty good grasp on this event in due course.

Flightaware radar data and derived GS and track are not going to be of high fidelity during such a rapid event.

Finally, an inadvertent encounter with a moderate or strong TSTM in a small plane can easily result in an upset. Stall, Spin, Crash, Die is a mantra that many pilots are familiar with.

Condolences to the families.

We're all speculating and most, if not all, of us are stating that in our posts. We also note that there's very little information to go on...at this time.

 

[ray66v]

Flight Aware Doesn't just make up weather, and impose it on the map either.

I took several trips last year, and checked the route on Flight Aware afterward. I found the weather to be represented as it was, including a break in a line of storms about 5 miles wide which we had passed through.

It's a free country, (barely), so we can speculate.

We are not the investigating authority, and have no power to sanction anyone, or influence the arrogant people who do. BTW: This type of speculation also goes on in every hangar, every time an incident occurs. This is because we are interested parties, who don't like waiting for the NTSB. They usually know what happened, but won't say anything, long before they release their report.

NTSB protocol seems to require their report has to sit on some bureaucrats desk, until after it has been a year, usually to the day. Then it magically hatches after it's gestation period, and it gets released. Telling us what we already figured out, about 95% of the time, 9 months ago, when we finished speculating.