Market Share? Who's next after the Big 3?

[Farmwithjunk]

Well if you look at the HISTORY of things then I'd say any ESTABLISHED brand will be around for parts in the future. Now define "established" and we can begin to argue.

Ford became Ford/New Holland which became New Holland which became Case-New Holland. But the dealerships still sell parts for 50 year old Ford tractors. So the brand carries on because it merged/sold/survived.

International Cub/Farmall has essentially died, and now Farmall is part of the Case/New Holland family . . . so the original brand is an "orphan" brand but it has such a strong collector base, with clubs just for the old IH Cubs and the Farmall tractors that you can get reproduction parts and restoration help for them.

Will any of the new brands have that collector base? Will they merge into some other company like AGCO which operates about a dozen brands and still offers at least some support for some of the OLD Massey-Ferguson tractors? That is the guess or gamble that people will have to take. I'd suggest that ANY specific MODEL that is very popular will have parts support for 50 years, no matter what happens to the brand. But the models that 'qualify' for that status today are probably tractors like the New Holland TC30 or the John Deere 790 and 990. Those are basic tractor but they have stood the test of time and continue to sell. I personally don't like them, I think there are many better tractors, but I doubt that any brand that sells only a few thousand tractors a year is going to have parts support for 25 years on anything they sell today, while something like a TC30 or a 790 probably sells as many specific units as some brands sell all their models combined.

JUST MY GUESS. JUST MY OPINION. It has nothing to do with what brands will survive for 20 plus years. But based on history, your best bet is to buy a very popular MODEL if you want parts support for that MODEL when it becomes an antique.

Hmmmm. Agree on most counts. HOPING for more expressed opinion on models/brands other than the "biggies", but I guess I'm not dragging you in to THAT fight right now.

My reasoning behind parts/service availability on older AG and utilities is simply because there aren't any 50 year old compacts to compare. At this juncture, all we can do is look at a companies history with their popular models of that day. That, and these are the tractors I'm personally very familiar with. (Did I mention I'm a fanatic regarding old iron?)

As far as your statements regarding AGCO, and Massey Ferguson; From personal experience, AGCO offers parts support on Massey's built and sold throught the 1980's comparable to Ford (New Holland) on their oldies. (Not a lot of personal experience with either brand BEYOND that point) When you go after Ford or Ferguson/Massey Ferguson parts on the really old ones, either brand, you'll get aftermarket replacement or reproduction parts probably 6 out of 10 times. But the support is there. When it comes time to PAY THE BILL, AGCO (MF) will leave a smile on your face compared to New Holland (I own 1 Ford now. Have owned 2 others in recent past. Own one Massey Fergusn and work on several others belonging to friends)

Deere offers the best parts support, in terms of O.E.M. parts still available for old stuff. Just don't forget your nitro pills when they hand you the bill. As bad as Deere's rep on parts prices is, I think New Holland can give 'em a run for their money (or should I say, A run for OUR money?) ( I own 1 Deere tractor and 1 Deere lawn tractor, plus quite a few Deere implements still in the barn)

I have no personal experience with Kubota. They have BOTH feet solidly in the door in terms of product sales and current support. That would indicate to me that they'll be here for the long haul. I'd like a QUALIFIED opinion on parts availability on OLDER Kubotas. (Parts for relatively NEW tractors isn't relative to my line of questioning)

But the thing about it is, they HAVE parts support. My concern is, some (to MOST) of the "young upstarts" seem like viable companies NOW, but will they last? Will they survive when the compact market peaks? (IF it hasn't already)And there seems (to me) to be oh so many models and variants of models. Will there be parts and/or qualified technicians available 20 years down the road? I realize this questioning ask's for an OPINION rather than fact, but I'm interested in how many positive or negative OPINIONS there are on the subject.

 

[Bob_Skurka]

My reasoning behind parts/service availability on older AG and utilities is simply because there aren't any 50 year old compacts to compare. At this juncture, all we can do is look at a companies history with their popular models of that day.

AGREED but again, only for the most popular of their models. You can find some parts at the New Holland dealer for a Ford NAA or 8N. The rest of the parts are going to be aftermarket for those models. But try to find either OEM or aftermarket parts for a Ford 850 and you are going to find the pickings very slim. Which goes back to my point about POPULARITY. The more popular it is today, the more likely you will have parts 20, or 50 years down the road. Consequently if one MODEL of one brand sells 5,000 units per year and that specific model is in production for many years, it is likely that that specific model will be supported in some way (OEM, aftermarket, clubs, etc) 20, 30, 40+ years down the road. On the other hand if a manufacturer offers 10 models and sells a total of 10,000 tractors per year, then it is unlikely, strickly based on popularity and numbers, that there will be long term support. Similarly, if a manufacturer like Kubota sells 100,000 units per year, but only sells a couple thousand of a SPECIFIC MODEL, then it is unlikely that that model will be supported 20, 30+ years down the road.

 

[Farmwithjunk]

AGREED but again, only for the most popular of their models. You can find some parts at the New Holland dealer for a Ford NAA or 8N. The rest of the parts are going to be aftermarket for those models. But try to find either OEM or aftermarket parts for a Ford 850 and you are going to find the pickings very slim. Which goes back to my point about POPULARITY. The more popular it is today, the more likely you will have parts 20, or 50 years down the road. Consequently if one MODEL of one brand sells 5,000 units per year and that specific model is in production for many years, it is likely that that specific model will be supported in some way (OEM, aftermarket, clubs, etc) 20, 30, 40+ years down the road. On the other hand if a manufacturer offers 10 models and sells a total of 10,000 tractors per year, then it is unlikely, strickly based on popularity and numbers, that there will be long term support. Similarly, if a manufacturer like Kubota sells 100,000 units per year, but only sells a couple thousand of a SPECIFIC MODEL, then it is unlikely that that model will be supported 20, 30+ years down the road.

100% agree.....And what fun is that

I'm of the opinion there's a number of brands out and about NOW that BY DESIGN, won't be here in 10 years, muchless 50. They're cashing in on a hot market that will someday soon reach saturation point. Then it's "only the strong survive". Some of these "economy brands" will fold up their tents and go find the next gold rush. I'm not naming names, and apparently, neither are you. (DANG-IT)

 

[MDM]

Similarly, if a manufacturer like Kubota sells 100,000 units per year, but only sells a couple thousand of a SPECIFIC MODEL, then it is unlikely that that model will be supported 20, 30+ years down the road.

So, I'm not really asking the right question. I'm looking at the Mahindra 2815HST, Kubota L2800HST and NH TC30.

Based on your opinions and reasoning, the parts availibity for the TC30 should not be something I should be too concerned with. Its been around in similar forms for a while and NH sell alot of them.

What about the Kubota L2800HST? How many units has Kubota moved each year since it came out? Anyone have any reason to believe this model won't be around for a few more years?

The Mahindra 2815 just came out, so who knows how long it will be around.

Parts availability seems to be a bit of a quandrary. I have a grey market Yanmar that is almost 30 years old that was only produced for a couple of years in Japan. I can get parts for it with no problem. Albiet aftermarket parts, but still everything I would ever need including parts for a total engine rebuild. I guess I shouldn't worry about the future that much, I just want to be confident in making a long term purchase as I am still somewhat young.

 

[Farmwithjunk]

So, I'm not really asking the right question. I'm looking at the Mahindra 2815HST, Kubota L2800HST and NH TC30.

Based on your opinions and reasoning, the parts availibity for the TC30 should not be something I should be too concerned with. Its been around in similar forms for a while and NH sell alot of them.

What about the Kubota L2800HST? How many units has Kubota moved each year since it came out? Anyone have any reason to believe this model won't be around for a few more years?

The Mahindra 2815 just came out, so who knows how long it will be around.

Parts availability seems to be a bit of a quandrary. I have a grey market Yanmar that is almost 30 years old that was only produced for a couple of years in Japan. I can get parts for it with no problem. Albiet aftermarket parts, but still everything I would ever need including parts for a total engine rebuild. I guess I shouldn't worry about the future that much, I just want to be confident in making a long term purchase as I am still somewhat young.

As I said in an earlier post, I have ZERO personal experience with Kubota. HOWEVER, as an observer of all things "tractor", I'd say they've passed the test as far as proving their chances of being here for the long haul. Even their "lesser" models, in terms of popularity, will most likely see good parts support beyond their "new years". And that's all just a guess. Also, refer to my comments on International Harvester. 35 years ago, you could have got great odds AGAINST their ever going under. 25 years ago, that all changed abruptly. NO business is bullit-proof in todays world. Some are better at dodging bullits though.

 

[California]

So, I'm not really asking the right question. ... I have a grey market Yanmar that is almost 30 years old that was only produced for a couple of years in Japan. I can get parts for it with no problem. Albiet aftermarket parts, but still everything I would ever need including parts for a total engine rebuild.

As I read it, your original question was " What has as good parts support after 30 years as a Yanmar?" Uh - maybe a recent used Yanmar?

 

[MossRoad]

Has anyone thought about if the parts will be available for all the new electronic displays and computer controls on this year's crop of tractors in a decade? That is the thing that would worry me a bit. You can always get a machinist to make you a gear or shaft, but who's gonna make you an LCD display or computer chip for a 10-15-20 year old tractor?

 

[Farmwithjunk]

Has anyone thought about if the parts will be available for all the new electronic displays and computer controls on this year's crop of tractors in a decade? That is the thing that would worry me a bit. You can always get a machinist to make you a gear or shaft, but who's gonna make you an LCD display or computer chip for a 10-15-20 year old tractor?

Yep! The thought crossed my little mind about this time last year, when I was THINKING about trading my "antique" 36 year old Massey and my 28 year old Deere in on a new technological wonderdog. Then I decided to keep what I can work on.

If there's enough demand, you'll be able to get every part on some of the top brands and models. It might cost as much as you paid for the entire tractor...........

 

[Dargo]

Has anyone thought about if the parts will be available for all the new electronic displays and computer controls on this year's crop of tractors in a decade? That is the thing that would worry me a bit. You can always get a machinist to make you a gear or shaft, but who's gonna make you an LCD display or computer chip for a 10-15-20 year old tractor?

Well, at the risk of sounding sarcastic, you'd plop down your $5 and order the much cheaper replacement available in the future. Tell me, how many electronic parts have you seen go up in price?? I collect 20 to 30 year old arcade games. Parts that become 'no longer available' have a replica part at 1/10th the price that works better. I rather strongly think the worry about tractor electronics will go the way of the people who wouldn't buy one of those new fangled cars with power windows or those automatic transmissions. You know, it's just more stuff to go wrong...

 

[Bob_Skurka]

If there's enough demand, you'll be able to get every part on some of the top brands and models. It might cost as much as you paid for the entire tractor...........

Has anyone thought about if the parts will be available for all the new electronic displays and computer controls on this year's crop of tractors in a decade?

I'm going to generally agree with Dargo on this. What I see is that many of the electronic parts on the new fangled tractors are pretty simple things like hour counters, RPMs, and simple stuff. Those are things that have been around for a decade or more on cars. My Ventrac has an hour meter that is also the RPM meter too. No biggie. If it fails I suppose I won't know how many hours are on the machine or what the exact RPMs are, but the tractor will likely work. And honestly, it looks like it is $15 part, and since the Ventrac is not a high volume machine, it is very likely an 'off the shelf' part from an electronics supplier. I suppose Deere or Kubota may use something a bit more proprietary, but I honestly doubt it. I suspect (but I don't know) that they are using 'off the shelf' parts and encasing them in weather resistant housings of fancy dashboard plastic. Electronics are not that complicated, nor are they unreliable. But hey, the analog RPM guage on my Avanti died long ago, I can't seem to find a replacement, and the car still runs great without it. Sure, it annoys me that I have a show car but can't tell what the RPMs are, but the electric windows and electric convertible top, and electric antenna, and electric seats, and electric mirrors and electric locks all work just fine.