First off thanks for all the advice and information about farming. This really has opened my eyes to a very risky type of life. Here is what I'm getting out of this:
1. Do my marketing research to find a niche in the market
2. Expect to keep a 40hr/week job because I may not even break even
3. If I do start, start small and begin farming for a local farmer.
Here is some more info on my situation:
The farm has around 200 acres of the 500 tillable that is creek bottoms and can produce over 175 bushels/acre. We currently rent the farmland for $200/ acre. I was thinking of farming on an adjusted rent with my dad so if I had a good year I would be paying over $150 an acre but if bad it would be near $100. That way I could build up some profits to continue to farm. We do have around 140 acres of extra tillable ground that is in CRP, that is really helping the family's income but won't be able to be farmed for another 10 years. Most of the neighbors are raising black angus, so I was going to think about doing that. Since others suggesting that I do specialty grass raised meats, I have thought about goats or lambs. The pasture could be row cropped but only about 40 acres, the 100 acres is split up and some borders the tillable. I have an 1988 JD 2350 to do farm chores.
I'll give it to you straight. IMO, you don't have anything near the land quality and type to profitably raise row crops at a 10 year average price. Sorry, but even if you took over all the tillable land and got 175 corn on all of it, you can't even afford the payments on must-own used equipment and hiring out the spraying and harvesting.
One thought: Cash rents vary wildly from area to area, but to me $200/acre is a little low if you really have 175 bu/ac average land. I think you should have a market analysis done and see if you are under-charging on rent. It's very easy to let this slide and I totally get that raising rent is a sensitive issue in farm country, but you have to look after your own interests.
I think you need to take the long view and learn more and I repeat my advice to start working for the best operator you can find.
Also, understand that there are MANY different kinds of farming rather than just cash cropping. A couple of stories for you.
I have a good friend of our family who has a cattle rearing operation. What makest his interesting is that he doesn't actually own the cattle. He is simply providing the building, labor, and feed. He uses his own hay ground and grain crops for feed, which instead of selling on the open market, he gets a near-retail price for. Essentially, he's charging money for his labor, feed, and farm assets in exchange for rearing cattle. He has no market risk in the price of cattle, he gets paid a set fee per pound of weight gain + he gets reatil price for his hay and feed. They do very well with this operation, so well in fact that he's built a second operation for his son. They rotate feeder cattle in put about 500 - 900 pounds on them, and then the company trucks them out to a finishing lot.
At a trade show, I met another farmer. This guy is from Belgium. They take farming seriously in Europe and this guy is a college-educated farmer with a masters degree in dairy rearing and operations. The problem in Belgium is that land and farms NEVER go up for sale. It simply does not ever happen. They are carefully held by familys for centuries. So he found himself out in the cold because his two older brothers were chosen to run the family dairy operation and he was basically just hired labor.
So there he was surfing the interweb one night and he found that you can actually buy a whole farm in America. Dairy heard and everything. He couldn't beleive it. So he flew over to Wisconsin and looked at some farms, but more improtantly some local dairymen felt sorry for him and took them under their wing and showd him the holy grail: Their ledgers and animal records! This guy copied all this stuff and used it to build a business case for making money as a specialist milk provider to the cheese industry. He got his father to co-sign a loan for him (in Belgium), came over here, bought an operation in Wisconsin, and then started building up a heard of cattle, the breed I've never heard of. Now he's got 300+ head and he's getting about 3x the price per pound for his milk because it all goes to speciality cheese makers, not to common bulk milk operations. He's loving it here and living the dream, he can't believe how "lucky" he is. I talked to his nighbor, a 40+ year dairyman and 4th generation to run his spread, and that farmer says "Lucky my @ss, that guy is the smartest **** dairyman I've ever seen and he knows more about dairy cattle than a lot of vets do."
I'm telling you this to illustrate that there are many different business models in farming. The good operator finds the business model that works for what he has and then exploits it.
Grouse