New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[rScotty]

Hens are coming home to roost. All a predictable outcome of easy monetary policy and spending more money in the past several years, than in our entire history prior to. Interesting times

Yes it is. Compared with the economy of the last 25 years, this one is not as good. Compared with the economy of the last 50, this one still looks remarkably good. We are still cruising down easy street.

I will say that the amount of negativity in the midst of so much wealth and opportunity puzzles me.
I wonder where that came from, and why it is so popular?

rScotty

 

[TN8Man]

Yes it is. Compared with the economy of the last 25 years, this one is not as good. Compared with the economy of the last 50, this one still looks remarkably good. We are still cruising down easy street.

I will say that the amount of negativity in the midst of so much wealth and opportunity puzzles me.
I wonder where that came from, and why it is so popular?

rScotty

Just comparing the economy from 3 years ago is a stark decline with a trajectory towards a crisis.

 

[2manyrocks]

Now let me get this straight..... This guy was using a leaf blower to force air across mulch debris on the tractor while the machine it was still hot, it caught fire, and he blames the emissions system?
Does something seem wrong with that picture to you?

rScotty

There is a tremendous amount of debris generated during the mulching process. Some of it will avoidably end up inside the track loader. He did the best anyone could do by stopping periodically to blow it out, but the flaw here is that the emissions system itself runs hotter than a unit without any emissions equipment increasing the risk of fire. If he didn't blow it out, the debris would still have been there. He also said he didn't know if it was the debris or a hydraulic leak or a fuel leak that actually caused the fire. The guy isn't slack in his work or in maintaining his equipment. He's 65 and has been operating equipment for a very long time. With this happening to his equipment, I don't believe I would fare any better if I were in the same situation.

 

[Hay Dude]

Yes it is. Compared with the economy of the last 25 years, this one is not as good. Compared with the economy of the last 50, this one still looks remarkably good. We are still cruising down easy street.

I will say that the amount of negativity in the midst of so much wealth and opportunity puzzles me.
I wonder where that came from, and why it is so popular?

rScotty

I’m just guessing here, but I would say the following could be reasons for negativity:

1. Imminent danger of kinetic war between the 3 world’s superpowers.
2. 40 year record high inflation
3. Fastest increase in interest rates in 40 years
4. Lowest labor participation rates in decades
5. Decreases in human lifespan
6. Extremely high energy prices
7. Decreased standards of living
8. Increased income gaps between rich and poor
9. Bank failures
10. Opioid deaths

There’s more, but I think those are all negative indicators.

 

[Hay Dude]

There is a tremendous amount of debris generated during the mulching process. Some of it will avoidably end up inside the track loader. He did the best anyone could do by stopping periodically to blow it out, but the flaw here is that the emissions system itself runs hotter than a unit without any emissions equipment increasing the risk of fire. If he didn't blow it out, the debris would still have been there. He also said he didn't know if it was the debris or a hydraulic leak or a fuel leak that actually caused the fire. The guy isn't slack in his work or in maintaining his equipment. He's 65 and has been operating equipment for a very long time. With this happening to his equipment, I don't believe I would fare any better if I were in the same situation.

No need to explain. This is a very real concern and it has been happening for a while. A hot catalytic converter a hot DPF can cause fire.

We purposely park hot equipment off the grass whenever possible. I do not feel comfortable in emissions equipped skid steer loaders.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

I’m just guessing here, but I would say the following could be reasons for negativity:

1. Imminent danger of kinetic war between the 3 world’s superpowers.
2. 40 year record high inflation
3. Fastest increase in interest rates in 40 years
4. Lowest labor participation rates in decades
5. Decreases in human lifespan
6. Extremely high energy prices
7. Decreased standards of living
8. Increased income gaps between rich and poor
9. Bank failures
10. Opioid deaths

There’s more, but I think those are all negative indicators.

It’s coming… those who doubt will see that reality does catch up

 

[rScotty]

Just comparing the economy from 3 years ago is a stark decline with a trajectory towards a crisis.

Three years is what I would call "short term".

 

[2manyrocks]

Yes it is. Compared with the economy of the last 25 years, this one is not as good. Compared with the economy of the last 50, this one still looks remarkably good. We are still cruising down easy street.

I will say that the amount of negativity in the midst of so much wealth and opportunity puzzles me.
I wonder where that came from, and why it is so popular?

rScotty

It's not popular per se, but it's the topic of discussion because if you look at historical charts, the levels of deficit, spending, and money supply growth since 2020 appear pretty extreme. Eggs that were .69 a carton are now $2.12. Homes that were $250k are now pushing $500k. Cars...tractors....all much more expensive in a very short time span.

Those who might be able to absorb price increases like these from savings can do so for a while, but if the rate of price increases don't slow, whoever it was that brought up the issue of trend was exactly right to bring it up.

 

[Hay Dude]

Three years is what I would call "short term".

I admire your optimism for humankind. I really do. I, too have to be optimistic just to keep going in my profession year to year.
However, I think you may be soon shouting your optimism into an empty warehouse.

These are fascinating times. One marvels at the technology. However, the human component is suffering because of the spectacular failures at the leadership level.
I’ve never seen people so determined to screw up our very existence and I am at the same time mortified by the people who continue to support them.

 

[rScotty]

No need to explain. This is a very real concern and it has been happening for a while. A hot catalytic converter a hot DPF can cause fire.

We purposely park hot equipment off the grass whenever possible. I do not feel comfortable in emissions equipped skid steer loaders.

I agree with both of those. We always parked hot equipment on bare ground or gravel.... always have done that even back in the days before we had regenerative emissions equipment. Mufflers have always been hot.
Hmmm.... I wonder if the skid steer went into regen, so he picked up a leaf blower to blow it off while it was doing a running regen.
Naw....couldn't be..... could it?