Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what?

   / Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what? #111  
Our official debt is now over 18 TRILLION. The "O" has added about 7 of those TRILLIONS. The fact is - the debt will never, get that NEVER N E V E R, be repaid - not in your lifetime - not in your children's lifetime - not in your great great great grand children's lifetime - N E V E R. When the dollar "officially" loses reserve status - this is going to be the most amazing disaster you can imagine. Get out of debt. Put your investments in tangible assets, precious metals and land are good. Learn to be a little more self-sufficient. What am I doing? About to build a $400k house. Go figure :)
Yup, great advice, I'm on it. HS
 
   / Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what? #112  
Yup, great advice, I'm on it. HS

I was too - until we decided to build. I HOPE we'll be able to clear this debt within 2 or 3 years. If the SHTF before then ..... it's gonna be ugly!
 
   / Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what? #113  
I was too - until we decided to build. I HOPE we'll be able to clear this debt within 2 or 3 years. If the SHTF before then ..... it's gonna be ugly!
Look at it this way you'll be paying back with worthless dollars. HS
 
   / Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what? #114  
The House passed the trillion dollar spending bill I think the numbers were 1.1trillion more than expected to come in this year.?

I agree with those that say we will not be able to pay off the 18trillion debt (least not without devaluation the dollar) and printing trillions upon trillions more out of thin air.. That my friends is where the US Dollar then is tossed out as favored denomination for global trade.


Oil going down is good for little guy like me (other than fact much of my 401K/IRA is in oil stocks.) Paying less at gas pump means I can save or spend it elsewhere maybe on a more efficient car!


Mark
 
   / Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what? #115  
It would not be inflation control would it?? With the added benefit of allowing folks that sold shares high buy them back low?

No, we're expecting a contracting, deflationary cycle after a private debt-fueled peak. People who want to get into gold are wrong. Metals and tangibles are a hedge against inflation. Cash is the hedge against deflation because everything you can buy gets cheaper and cheaper to buy. We're talking about the decreasing value of oil.

Ask yourself if the price of oil, and commodities in general, is inflating, staying there same, or deflating? Generally, the prices are deflationary. Why? Less demand. Why is there less demand? Because as people age they spend less money. Peak spending is at ages 47-48 years old in the USA. After that, people spend less. Peak net worth is one year after retirement, which explains our bond and equities markets growth and why people tend to expect its continued growth into the next 12-18 months fueled by the boomers packing it away. But my generation, now entering into peak spending, isn't big enough to support growth in commodities, and millennials, are saddled with crappier paying entry level jobs on all fronts and higher education debts forcing them to forgo and defer marriage and family formation, the number one reason people become first time homeowners, and the reason starter house sales lag other segments.

To some extent, our demographic population problem is playing out on the world stage but at different intervals. Because markets are forward looking they are trying to discover the price of slowing global growth.

Now if the world's growth is slowing, then the need for building out commodity production is all but erased and as production outstrips demand, then prices decline and we experience a deflationary cycle until demand picks back up against available supply.

Thus you want to deploy cash into tangibles when the axe has fallen, not before the axe falls. People who want to get into RE, buy it only because you like it, but expect a glut of McMansions in 2023 when the boomers with too big of a house all try to downsize at the same time and my generation is too small to to soak up the buying interest, thereby forcing prices down. Right now there aren't enough people buying starter houses, and this problem will eventually make it to the larger homes as time goes on even though for now, the market for upper class housing is pretty good.

Going forward think like Monopoly: RE for rents and senior living which is the only RE space that will see growth over the next 30 years as boomers move from 4,000 sq. foot homes to 2500 sq. foot town homes to 1000 sq. foot assisted living to 20 sq. foot burial plots.
 
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   / Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what? #116  
In my county, it seems that the only building is apartments, condos, trailer park lots. Very few single family homes. And schools have closed a bunch of elementary buildings in the last few years. We are aging pretty quickly here.
 
   / Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what? #117  
( No, we're expecting a contracting, deflationary cycle after a private debt-fueled peak. People who want to get into gold are wrong. Metals and tangibles are a hedge against inflation. Cash is the hedge against deflation because everything you can buy gets cheaper and cheaper to buy. We're talking about the decreasing value of oil. )

Them hedges, are they solid identifiable items you can hold in your hand or just pieces of paper representing identifiable's?

What happens when the cash in hand runs out and is not replaceable?
 
   / Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what? #118  
ERIC: To some extent, our demographic population problem is playing out on the world stage but at different intervals. Because markets are forward looking they are trying to discover the price of slowing global growth.

Now if the world's growth is slowing, then the need for building out commodity production is all but erased and as production outstrips demand, then prices decline and we experience a deflationary cycle until demand picks back up against available supply.


The portion of the global population impacted by aging and low birth rates is still small but growing. The portion of the global population that has reached Average Joe consumption parity with N. America, W. Europe, Japan, Australia/New Zealand, etc. is also small but steadily growing outward from the wealthier and more politically stable metropolitan areas in many countries such as Brazil and China.

It seems like those are the global areas where economies based on growth, both in population and consumption, still apply. The segment in the US showing population growth is also losing purchasing power at the same time. The older portion of the US demographic, as you say, is beyond caring about the latest gizmo or new house; they simply consume less.

I don't know much about markets, but it seems like the NYSE is less focused on internal US factors and more on global influences. Put another way, the market cares less and less on the economic outcomes and impacts for average US citizens as global consumption rises.

At least for the US, the challenge is two-fold: increase the consumption ability of the growing population segment, and ultimately, adapt to zero or negative population growth. Do we even know a domestic economic model for the scenario where there is no longer a guaranteed increasing supply of potential customers that automatically expands production?
 
   / Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what? #119  
( No, we're expecting a contracting, deflationary cycle after a private debt-fueled peak. People who want to get into gold are wrong. Metals and tangibles are a hedge against inflation. Cash is the hedge against deflation because everything you can buy gets cheaper and cheaper to buy. We're talking about the decreasing value of oil. )

Them hedges, are they solid identifiable items you can hold in your hand or just pieces of paper representing identifiable's?

What happens when the cash in hand runs out and is not replaceable?

Let us say that you purchase real certified physical gold at $1250 an ounce.

1) tell nobody or somebody will show up and steal it.

2) Don't try to buy anything with it because nobody can verify its purity and anybody willing to take gold as payment knows they too will have a hard way of spending it, and so the terms anybody will accept gold as payment will stink.

3) As commodities devalue, the paper currency traditionally increases, thereby increased the actual purchasing power of the currency. Why? Because people want cash, not heavy stuff that hurts if they drop it on their foot.

4) if commodes devalue in a deflationary cycle, then gold devalues and you ride that descending slope downward.

5) Thus gold is not a hedge in a deflationary cycle.

6) If cash runs out, you're broke, just as you would be at any other time cash ran out. Why? Because cash (or any currency) is packaged power that can be deployed, held in reserve, lent and stockpiled for a rainy day.
 
   / Oil Drops over 30% since summer, now what? #120  
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/paying-down-debt-now-almost-mathematically-impossible

The only problem I see with the piece is that there are only two things that that are considered debt to the federal government and would constitute a default if not payed. Bonds and federal retirements including military retirements, and both of those are easily covered with revenue. Everything else is not real debt. Yes, SS is not a debt, just a tax, and could stopped at anytime. The issue is settled law at SCOUS. HS
 

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