oil price differential

[Bytesmiths]

See Paul Ehrlich's population bomb predictions from the 70s. Every generation has it's own Chicken Little.

70s - Population Explosion, we'll never be able to feed everyone, then it was the coming ice age, now it's global warming.

Have you even read his books? I have. He said NOTHING about ice ages. And his population predictions were based on population rates and commodity consumption rates of the mid-century. He devotes a whole chapter to what could be done, and an amazing number of the things he recommends were actually implemented in the 80's.

Had US petroleum production not peaked in 1970, and had OPEC not embargoed oil in the late 70's, Ehrlich's predictions may well have come true. The oil shocks of the 70's caused "demand destruction," which gave us all a couple more decades breathing room. Ehrlich (and Malthus, for that matter) wasn't so much wrong as he was early.

Fossil energy directly supports our population today. When it goes into decline, whether by tomorrow (many researchers claim we're already past the peak) or by the most optimistic guesses (USGS says 2032), population will have to decline if that energy is not replaced.

The "green revolution" in agriculture should really be called a "black revolution," as in black gold: petroleum and natgas. When natural gas peaks and declines, where will the fertilizer come from? North America is very near peak, and NIMBY is making it impossible to site LNG ship terminals so we can use up the rest of the world's gas. (That's A Good Thing. When petroleum peaks and declines, where will pesticides, herbicides, and tractor diesel come from? In fact, world grain production peaked in 2002, and has declined four of the past five years.

If the number of lilies in a pond doubles every day, and on the 29th day, the pond is half-full, how many days will it take to fill the pond with lilies? We're in the 29th day here, and everyone's looking around and saying, "Why, there's PLENTY of pond left!"

 

[MikePA]

Have you even read his books? I have. He said NOTHING about ice ages. And his population predictions were based on population rates and commodity consumption rates of the mid-century. He devotes a whole chapter to what could be done, and an amazing number of the things he recommends were actually implemented in the 80's.
...

I did not say Ehrlich said anything about an ice age. There was a comma in my sentence. The coming ice age was another threat to the world (WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING NOW!) predicted by 'a respected consensus of scientists'. Save the 'he was wrong but he was right' and 'he was just ahead of his time' arguments. His predictions were wrong, period. I agree with the Czech Republic president when he said the whole environmental movement has replaced communism as the primary threat to freedom in the United States today.

This whole topic was debated months ago in another forum on TBN, probably Related Topics. It's got nothing to do with tractors and is more appropriate for a Global Warming web site.

 

[dmccarty]

...Just getting the investment and production up and running is the problem. If crude goes below $45, then forget it.

From articles I have read, the break even point on getting fuel from tar sands, coal to diesel, and gas to diesel is about $24 per barrel. Much of the oil in played out oil fields is still in the ground. The fields are no longer economical at a given price per barrel. With higher prices the fields can produce again and make money.

There are huge amounts of energy that are wasted. Gas is just burned off in the fields since there is no economical method to get the gas to the markets. Gas to Liquid processing plants are being built near gas fields to solve this problem.

I saw an article the other day that showed the oil production was up again.

The problem is that the demand is increasing quicker than the supply.

Later,
Dan

 

[DieselPower]

If memory serves correctly the Chevron GTL (gas to liquid) refinery will be up and running in 2010. All that natural gas they are currently burning off at the well heads will now become the new Group VII base oil.