ATT in 1985 was on of the biggest companies in teh world, all kinds of expertise and experts. THeir predictions were cell phones weren't gonna be abig deal.
SO how could the smartest/richest company get is SOOOO wrong (over 100 fold wrong?). And that was BEFORE the iPhone exploded on the scene.
****, 25 years ago if ANYONE told you that half of everyone would spend $800 plus on a TELEPHONE, you'd have been dumbfounded. Yet we do...
Guy showed ia pic of NYC in 1902 - one car in the picture of a VERY crowded street. 1915, same street - ONE horse and lots of cars. We used horses for hundreds if not thousands of years - yet a complete transformation in about a decade.
30 years ago we went from records or tapes to CDs..now nobody under 20 even buys music, they subscribe.
Many things are now a subscription.
A car costs what, $400 a month payment? Gas another $200, insurance 100 more, plus maybe parking and maintenance. $700/month? Paid off it's still $300/month.
What if I could offer you a FAMILY subscription to uber rides for $499 a month? Oh, and your groceries will be delivered (a store is doing that now, $5.95), to go meals delivered (uber eats now)...
It's not a matter of IF or perhaps even PRICE - go to an urban area and look at zipcar and others - lots of scooters and bikes. Use your app / ATM card to unlock and use it.
Self driving cars...who cares? Think DAY TO DAY - you go to the store - dropped at the door and the car parks itself. picks you up at the door too. Nice idea, huh? No more hunting for a parking space- car can just circle the block if need be.
As soon as your friend has it you'll want it.
Maps? GONE. GPS units? GONE - my phone does it all. If I told in 20 years ago your phone would replace maps you'd have asked if I was drunk. Yet EVERYONE adopted this without a second thought, huh?
Alexa and such...just wait. They're Gen 1..like a flip phone was...
Of course nobody knows the future, but I kind of doubt that line of reasoning will prevail. The problem with that argument is that it assumes that people decide things for financial reasons alone. What I've noticed is that people tend to talk about doing things for economic reasons, but when it comes to actually deciding what to do they tend to decide things emotionally, not financially.
We sure do like our toys....
rScotty