Great comments here!
An interesting aspect of geo is that the numbers are more constant. The outside temperature just affects heat loss of your house, and very little the temperatures the heat pump has to work with. As such, one should be able to figure out the:
1) Cost to install a system (be it simple resistive electric or geo)
2) Cost to operate the system.
Since you know the desired output temperature, and have the ground temperature (input temp), the manufacturer of any geo system should be able to get you a power consumption number. It's a little harder to turn that into a "dollars per month in the heating season". I suspect that as long as you are consistent in these approximations you'll have an apples to apples comparison.
The one piece of data you're missing is what is the temperature of the water with a well based system. Perhaps there is someone local to your area has this answer. You can then get power consumption for both the ground loop and well loop systems and see what 10 to 15 degrees warmer water would really mean for you.
Redneck in training's comments about the low cost of simple resistive electric vs. the high cost of geo really draws a focus on the payback period (or if you like, "pay me now vs. pay me later").
Sawduster's comments points out the importance of the cost difference of the systems being looked at in addition/in stead of just the "big cost of geo". Of course, one has to have the up front funds in the first place. It's all about the increase in installed cost of the system vs. the decrease cost of operation. The devil's in the deltas.
Like many financial decisions, wouldn't it be nice to know how much longer you had to live to help with this choice.... After all, some people define a perfect financial life as one where the check to the mortician bounces :laughing:.
When there is just too much information, you have to simplify. I think you can get the installed costs OK. As for the operating costs, I'd try to come up with a BTUs you need, perhaps your current oil consumption will get you close. Now you have your system installation costs, and your operating costs. I'd ignore the possibility (certainty?) of increased electricity costs. In your case, it's much less of an issue and even for the grid dependent, rising cost just work in your favor but should not be counted on.
I'm making a subjective post here, but one last comment. When people get granite counter tops or a bonus room added to their house, they don't go through this "payback period" calculation like they do with HVAC systems. The reason is it adds to the value of the house. If you go the resistive electric with payback period of some number of years, when you go to sell your house it has less value than if it has an efficient heating system. Yes, this is a "Do I fly first class or do my heirs fly first class" problem. None the less, the house that has all of it's decisions based on "pay me later" (a.k.a the "typical" builder spec house) has less value 20 years down the road than one with more insulation and a more efficient HVAC system. My parents 4000 sq ft house that was built in 1960 was just torn down. It was too expensive to heat and cool, and it had a lot of "Deferred maintenance issues" with it. When the house sold 40 years after it was built, it was sold for $50K. It had little value. I fly coach a lot...
I know this doesn't solve your technical evaluations, but I hope it can help you focus on a few numbers, and focus on your personal long term goals and that will help you decide. Yep, I drone on like an inefficient heat pump...
Pete