Real Estate Days on Market?

   / Real Estate Days on Market? #41  
Myrtle Beach SC is about 20 miles east of me. In the Mid 1980's sold real-estate and the prices in our county were about 20% higher than the adjoining county. Today the difference is much much greater. I would say just looking at listings four to six time higher here. We are a very large county and people moving here with cash from selling up North are pushing prices way about reasonable. I would say about twice what the price should be. Young working couples are basically priced out of the market which is not only sad but will kill the work force.

Tracts of land are being bought as quick as they can put offers in on them. Hard to farm when the land has jumped in value over 400%. There are very few lots of 1 to 5 acres for sale in my county. If they are most likely bad area or wetlands.

I used to say a piece of land with pond on it would sell easy for $60,000 but today have all confidence there would be $200,000 added to that price. Regardless it is not for sale. Just a few years ago we were considered by the Federal Government a rural county, don't forget Myrtle Beach is in our county and brings in many many millions per year. At the rate we are building houses there will be very few people farming full time as farm land is rapidly being developed.

The developing is happing so fast no way does roads begin to keep up, schools cannot be built fast enough. Small rural town about 7 miles from me expects it school population to double in five years. Our school budget exceeds the rest of the county agencies and continues to grow faster still. In the last two hurricanes we again set record floods. So much land that was swamp land that held water to be slowly drained into the rivers have been drained putting rain run off into the rivers much faster than few years ago.

Look on your maps of Horry County, in the about the last 12 years Myrtle Beach has I think three times almost become an island due to flooding. Of the East West roads all buy one (Hwy 501) was flooded and it was each time sandbagged to keep it open one lane each way. On the north south roads only hwy 17 into North Carolian remained open but will the area it leads to (Wilmington NC) facing flooding there. Hwy 17 south to Georgetown was flooded. Many do not realize Myrtle Beach had I think was a total of 3 lanes open in and 3 lanes open out. Normally I think there are 10 lanes on Federal Roads, not counting some state roads that provide a lot of locals travel to Myrtle Beach.

Intercoastal Waterway flooded here five years ago with large record increase in flood waters again due to development and rivers clogged up with decks, down trees and run off at records levels along with a damn issue in Lumberton NC area.

I am sorry for such a rant but the true locals with land family owned for many generations are being driven out and this weekend I made recommendation to my wife never thought I would when was farming it: be prepared to sell it for houses, if you see these things continuing to happen. At current pricing she can sell it for about $60,000 per acre for open farm land. The lots of 1/4 acre will sell then for about $40,000 to $60,000.

Oh, have also learned some of the tract builders have found new ways to cut corners on houses with 1/4inch sheetrock and now installing 4 gauge wire with 15 amp circuits rather than what was code where 12 gauge wire and 20 amp 110 circuits...Driveways are now joint drive ways even on rural roads.

One thing I have noticed here over the years. We see very few people moving here from west of us again, especially from other Southern States. Have seen more from Colorado than any other state west of use, well unless they are north of us. Thank God those in the big Northen Cities realize we are not up to their social standards for most of them...Most are rural or small town people who are great people who love freedom.
 
   / Real Estate Days on Market? #42  
The people that bought in the past 2 years at high prices and low interest rates are now locked in for life. The will never be able to sell above what they bought it for and the low interest rates will never been seen for a long while. This is what we call dead money or zombie home owners. They better hope they like their place and can afford the price long term. There will be no upgrading if they bought a starter home for many many years.

The market has changed, and it all interest rate driven. Rates have gone up substantially, and it all but stalled out the housing market. That is a sign the prices are too high if a 3% interest rates crushes it. In normal times, this increase should not have such a drastic slow down.

The house flippers are done. You can't flip a house on borrowed money at these rates.

We had a 20% run up in prices in just over a year. Normal downturns do a 20% correction, which would just get us back to 2020 prices. I think in order to heal the system, were going to need to see around a 30-40% correction. Will the fed let that happen with so much leveraged homeowners out there...? We will see, but there are too many over extended owners out there that bought thinking in a year they could make 100k and move to a bigger house. Whoops...
 
   / Real Estate Days on Market? #43  
Those $300,000 houses that were just $180,000 a few years ago...need the 40% correction. For the first time ever this past Friday, there were no buyers of the Fed's mortgage backed securities bundle. The market does not want anything to do with housing right now. It's amazing that in just 2 months, it completly flipped.

Crypto had another fund fail over the weekend.

The CPI is the highest it's been ever.

The fed is convening an emergency meeting this week.

I hope people stay liquid.
 
   / Real Estate Days on Market? #44  
The people that bought in the past 2 years at high prices and low interest rates are now locked in for life. The will never be able to sell above what they bought it for and the low interest rates will never been seen for a long while. This is what we call dead money or zombie home owners. They better hope they like their place and can afford the price long term. There will be no upgrading if they bought a starter home for many many years.
....

Never say never, I sold at a market high a long while ago, and guess what, the price is right back to where it was then, plus a few 10's of thousands more.

It's cyclical. And, there is always someone who comes along and pays "the price".
 
   / Real Estate Days on Market? #45  
The will never be able to sell above what they bought it for and the low interest rates will never been seen for a long while. This is what we call dead money
I'm not so sure about the "never" aspect of home prices and values. But I agree that cheap interest rates will be gone for a long time.

I've bought real estate in up markets, down markets, and stagnant markets. My very first RE purchase had an 11% first mortgage with a 13% second mortgage. Somehow, that investment (over time) made money. But the very high interest rate was quite a financial headwind that made a financial return very slow.

Every piece of real estate I own, or ever owned, is worth substantially more than I paid for it. So I'm a believer in rising RE values over the long term ... through all sorts of markets.

Those who are most exposed are buyers who got the biggest house they could possibly afford, and financed it on an adjustable mortgage interest rate. That's a recipe for future trouble ...
 
   / Real Estate Days on Market?
  • Thread Starter
#46  
A lot of my better buys happened in the very high interest rate 1980's when conventional wisdom said avoid 13.5% but as long as it penciled out in rents I was good.

Rents increased and no cost lower mortgage interest refi followed as rates dropped.

My current home mortgage holder is pressing for me to payoff mortgage.

The heirs don't want to wait 54 months for the last payment.

Of course no obligation on my part but would consider if note discounted to cover refi cost.

Any thoughts from TBN brain trust...?

Stay the Course or go through the motions to retire original note at no cost to me if heirs willing to discount?
 
   / Real Estate Days on Market? #47  
I f the heirs provided a substantial discount that would cover the refi cost, PLUS some..... well then I would consider it.
If it's not putting a little bit in your pocket for your trouble, well then it's just too bad they want their money sooner.
 
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   / Real Estate Days on Market?
  • Thread Starter
#48  
Original thought was I’m set…

Then I said let me find out which I did.

You are right… my payment is in hand before the first of each month so not willing to jump through hoops.
 
   / Real Estate Days on Market? #49  
I pray and hope our economy holds together and no serious recession and certainly no depression. Think inflation is going to be major issue for us. Debt of the US Government is not a positive at all and it is only growing. Somewhere something will trigger majorly with the US Debt.

We may well see real estate drop in value even 50% but we may also see it increase 50% but with a dollar worth a lot less than today.

Oil prices are really hurting a large number of Americans. Fuel costs are real to everyone. Even if you ride a bike or horse and drive electric vehicle everything shipped rides on fuel. Everything. Bread, medicines, clothes, lumber, diapers, trees out the woods to make the lumber and diapers, trees from the woods to the mills, lumber from mills to stores, stores to customer's place of use.

I do believe you will find the push for electric vehicles is at least in part of the reason fuel prices are climbing. As the price of fuel increases it makes the cost of electric and the issues with them seem more and more tolerable.
 
   / Real Estate Days on Market?
  • Thread Starter
#50  
The last Real Estate collapsed saw prices dropping as much as 80% in some neighborhoods here in Oakland with 40 to 60% drop being the norm.

The difference this time is many put large down payments as opposed to little or no down payment.

Sobering to see homes that sold foreclosure ten years ago for 300k now selling 1.2m
 
 
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