Read this article...
The Best Age to File for Social Security - Social Security Intelligence
Many people make these poor choices in their filing decisions because of something called hyperbolic discounting.
Hyperbolic discounting is a cognitive bias which leads individuals to accept a smaller reward today instead of waiting for a known larger reward later. This bias becomes stronger when the reward is closer to us (as opposed to farther into the future).
I pored over that site and went to bed laughing thinking that the name of that website was a great oxymoron. He speaks in the first person yet he doesn't identify himself but your led to assume his name is Devin.
He says many people make these poor choices in their filing decisions because of something called hyperbolic discounting. Imagine you are offered $50 today or $60 a week from now. Research around hyperbolic discounting usually finds that most individuals would choose the $50 today. But when the option is to wait 52 weeks to get $50, or wait 53 weeks to get $60, most choose to wait the 53 weeks for the higher reward.
What a misguided statement as it implies you don't have the $50 for those 52 weeks but can have it at the end. But if you only wait one more week you can have $60. He is clearly twisting the argument of whether to take early ss payments vs. later over a 4yr or greater time period. Certainly not a one week timeframe!! And his chart shows that a lot of people realize that. He says most of those people are making poor choices (implying that they're uneducated). I say they are educated. It's like the guessing game of how many jellybeans are in a glass jar of a known size. Let's assume its a gallon size. Some people will be ridiculous and guess 7, 10, 42 and at the other extreme might guess 80,000 or even in the millions. But the more people making thoughtful educated guesses the closer they become to getting it right. If you graph the results on a chart the result of the majority of people guessing will always point to the actual number of beans in the jar. The collective wisdom of the majority usually trumps the individuals.
He says this: When someone is offered $1,540 per month today or $2,728 per month starting in eight years, it's just too tempting to start accepting the money today instead of waiting.
He does make some good points though in that there are certain conditions where it does make sense. But the blanket statement that most of those people are wrong in doing so is a little presumptuous. Before I saw the other options on the website one of which was to find out who Devin is I kept looking for the author of the article but it was nowhere to be found. But there are certainly disclaimers in small print at the end of this article. The detail may be in the fine print! It states that he makes an income off of all the goods sold from the links listed on his site. In other words, its basically a slick sales pitch. Read further down to another disclaimer and it states that his cleverly named site is not a part of nor even affiliated with the official governmental SS services. Let alone be condoned by them.
What's this?? A new pop up advert just appeared on my screen. Interesting!! It says:
NEWS FLASH! From
www.congressionalOMB_2
This just in: A new highly regarded study clearly baffles the minds of everyone serving in my organization. This study finds and my chart shows that a large and growing number of fine citizens suffer from a new condition called
Acute Implementic Hyperbolic Discounting. It's nearing epidemic proportions as its now spreading across rural, suburban and even urban districts! These misguided unfortunates who fall prey to this infectious syndrome are now buying SCUTs and even compact tractors at an earlier age in their life. All of whom know full well they could wait 8 more years and buy a tractor with slightly more horsepower for a significant increase in price. Some of these unfortunates have gone berserk and have actually equipped that SCUT with unnecessary implements. Even a backhoe! OMG! These people desperately need my help! Fortunately, I have a plan:
Being the congressional CEO of my personal website, I know how to help these financially challenged individuals suffering from this malicious mechanical STD (Socially Transmitted Disease). I am covertly seeking donations to find a cure and with your monetary donations that cure will come sooner than later. You must act now and donate to this cause. Do not delay. They need your help. And I know how to deliver.
Sincerely,
Mr. Honest Politician
Disclaimer: My personal website is in no way part of the Congressional OMB or even affiliated with it. I only made it look that way so you can feel confident in its contents. Trust me, your donations will go directly into my personal fund. After all, I adhere to the wisdom and code of ethics of Abraham Lincoln!
And Honest Abe famously said you can trust everything you read on the internet!!
Further Disclaimer: I am not the rarest of breeds, an honest politician. I am not even a politician.
:laughing:
Edit: I have removed my most embarrassing TVM computation and illustration from this post.
and am trying to recover from falling on my sword!
