Since the Election........

[2manyrocks]

It's practically impossible to reverse the impact of having increased the money supply so much and so quickly without rupturing the asset valuation bubble. And I don't think you'll see the Fed change its course without a change in the Fed chair + others.

 

[BackRoad]

Haven't heard that in California and even the State agencies have said expect higher prices as the new formula for California gasoline will add 50 cents a gallon plus wage laws like $20 minimum for fast food chains and $30 for hotel workers phases in and this isn't counting new tax and fee schedules plus gas and electric approved rate hikes and 20 to 40% hike in insurance premiums...

I'd call it a win if today's prices held...

Just look at the price increases for Estacada Oregon Christmas Trees.

It is unfathomable for me to understand why people would accept this...

 

[jyoutz]

It is unfathomable for me to understand why people would accept this...

Most service industries are now paying $15-20/hour, and not because of the state raising minimum wages. It’s what the market rate is nowadays.

 

[kenmac]

I sold out my business at a great time !

 

[ultrarunner]

It is unfathomable for me to understand why people would accept this...

Some are direct from appointed agencies, some direct from elected bodies and others getting 50 percent of the vote plus one…

California isn’t monolithic but the population centers often are…

 

[RSKY]

People think that if the inflation rate goes down prices will go down. I even heard President Biden say this one time. That is not what will happen. If the inflation rate drops to one percent then prices will only go up one percent. If the inflation rate drops to zero prices will stay the same. Oh they will fluctuate a little but basically stay the same. Dropping energy prices will make prices go down. Increasing efficiency will make prices go down. Cutting out wasteful government spending (DOGE) will (eventually) drop taxes and make prices go down. Money supply deflation will make prices go down but that leads to even more serious problems.

RSKY

 

[The Gaul]

Maybe the Trump election has boosted consumer confidence a bit, but the numbers are against him. Since unleashing 'QE 1' under Obama, we've had the cards stacked against us. Every iteration of QE (including under Trump 1) has expanded M2 and basically increased the money supply. What this means is that more money is chasing a finite amount of goods. As we speak, the Biden regime is spending money like a drunken sailor in their final days of their wretched reign. All of the allotted 'chips' and 'inflation reduction' act money will be spent before Jan 20th. This will all turn up as new inflation (with a lagging effect). I wish Musk and Vivek good luck. They will have to falsify macro economic indicators with the same vigilance as the current regime to even remotely look successful.
Trump might have to deal with the deflation of the biggest asset bubble in history, part of it being his own creation. As a strong believer in Austrian Economics I really see no good ending to this nearly 2 decade long cluster ****. We are in such uncharted territory that it is tough to make solid investment decisions.

 

[ultrarunner]

How to position one’s self for what’s to come I would be most helpful.

Some go to cash, some shift to gold, some invest in in the means of production, etc.

With the growing pool of retired those drawing resources also increases.

I’ve spent a lot of time in Austria but I can’t pretend to understand the Austrian school of economics.

 

[The Gaul]

Austrian economics is a 'school' of economics, it's nothing that the current Austrian government would abide by.
It is rather 'pure' and holds people and governments accountable. It is actually the opposite of what most governments currently abide by, which is called Keynesian economics. Keynesian economics supports money printing so that the government doesn't have to balance the books (in other words, it allows them to spend in excess of what they collect = tax income). How do they do that ? The simply print money (M2 money expansion). Never in history has this ended well. The only way out is hyperinflation or a good old market correction where all of the malinvestment is burned off.
Here's some good stuff if you want to learn about Austrian economics :
Mises Institute

 

[RayIN]

Hah, me too. I am a “recovering” framing contractor & builder.
So much happier farming & land clearing….

An aside; I met the man who owned and traveled in this Prevost conversion and built his towed 1½T Ford delivery truck conversion. He was a framing contractor from California on vacation.
Gotta click on picture to see the full width.

 

[Alan46]

Haven't heard that in California and even the State agencies have said expect higher prices as the new formula for California gasoline will add 50 cents a gallon plus wage laws like $20 minimum for fast food chains and $30 for hotel workers phases in and this isn't counting new tax and fee schedules plus gas and electric approved rate hikes and 20 to 40% hike in insurance premiums...

I'd call it a win if today's prices held...

Just look at the price increases for Estacada Oregon Christmas Trees.

We live in the hills of Estacada and paid the same price for our family Christmas tree for the last four years at a locally owned farm!

 

[ultrarunner]

We raise trees on 30 acres in Estacada and also buy from our neighbor... the heat wave not all that long ago did take a toll.

The cost of soil amendments way up as well as labor and transport to SF Bay Area.

The trees we bought this year were 17% higher delivered than last year.

Last year sold 3300... this year looking to be a little less but still a week to go.

 

[Alan46]

We raise trees on 30 acres in Estacada and also buy from our neighbor... the heat wave not all that long ago did take a toll.

The cost of soil amendments way up as well as labor and transport to SF Bay Area.

The trees we bought this year were 17% higher delivered than last year.

Last year sold 3300... this year looking to be a little less but still a week to go.

We buy from Wild Hair tree farm
On Wildcat! Are you familiar with them?

 

[ultrarunner]

We buy from Wild Hair tree farm
On Wildcat! Are you familiar with them?

Sending PM…

 

[masscity]

I've bought about a $1000 worth of items from Amazon in case the Tariffs raise the prices, which I don't need until summer.

 

[scootr]

I've bought about a $1000 worth of items from Amazon in case the Tariffs raise the prices, which I don't need until summer.

Thank you for boosting the economy.

 

[masscity]

Thank you for boosting the economy.

You are welcome!

 

[HawkinsHollow]

Housing starts are BOOMING in and around SE Tennessee. Haven't really slowed down in years. I think part of it is we were behind the national average when it came to housing and home prices, well, we have caught up quickly.

Just got done with a big addition and Reno on my house. Yes, it was expensive. But I feel like no time like the present. The older I get I have learned that if you want something or want to get something done JUST DO IT! There is so much uncertainty in our world today. If there are new tariffs in place by March then it would be more expensive, if we have issues with Canada come March then lumber will get more expensive. I was not willing to gamble that the future was going to be brighter or less expensive than what it is today, so I did it. I do not think the incoming admin is going to wave a magic wand and lower prices, and there is a very strong possibility that things are going to get MORE expensive.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Fact is, in the past 15 years new home builds have been slow. There is little inventory, so prices are rising, as are interest rates, which keeps people in their current homes. Nobody wants to pay today's prices, and trade a 3% mortgage for a 7%

New home builds nationwide have lagged for over a decade

 

[scootr]

Fact is, in the past 15 years new home builds have been slow. There is little inventory, so prices are rising, as are interest rates, which keeps people in their current homes. Nobody wants to pay today's prices, and trade a 3% mortgage for a 7%

New home builds nationwide have lagged for over a decade

I'm not moving. Soon this place is mine and I've no intention of getting another mortgage