The Glut Cometh

[ultrarunner]

For my brother too… deeded water rights from 1850 and gravity to the farm giving 33 psi and water is good.

Stories in era newspapers of droughts and the only sweet water in that part of the county was from that farm which gave water freely to rural neighbors in time of need.

The Spring is now well inside park boundaries but the claim stands and park maintains line to farm property line…

The homestead had a small buck stove my sister in law said it got to go and I said it will be gone today… I would love to have it… my eagerness gave her pause and now she loves being in front of the stove a on a damp rainy night burning oak storm fall from the farm…

 

[MossRoad]

Over the last 26 years I've paid in 104,000 n prop tax. We have no children.

I had to think about that. Over the last 35 years we’ve paid less than $30K in property taxes and we have 2 children. Small houses in lower middle class neighborhoods and farm land with no improvements don’t get taxed much here.

 

[Diggin It]

In the last 25 years, I've paid around $7,000 total in property taxes. As long as I stay on this place, I'll never pay more since the assessed value is now below the annual exemption level.

 

[ultrarunner]

Property tax with voter approved assessments would put you in the 15k annual property tax easily based on recent selling prices...

It is staggering that many recent buyers don't realize until faced with the bill...

 

[NorTracNY]

Please stop bragging about how little you all pay in property taxes. It's making this NYer cry.

 

[ultrarunner]

Is 15k little for 1200 square feet 1950's rancher in East Oakland California?

 

[Diggin It]

Then there's this ....

Valley homebuilders see alarming surge in homebuyers backing out of new home contracts​

The Business Journals|52 minutes ago
Experts say there's uncertainty in the market due to rising rates, inflation and homebuyers' job security.

 

[ultrarunner]

Then there's this ....

Valley homebuilders see alarming surge in homebuyers backing out of new home contracts​

The Business Journals|52 minutes ago
Experts say there's uncertainty in the market due to rising rates, inflation and homebuyers' job security.

It is very real and shows how easily sentiment can change...

The perception is now simply not a good time to buy...

The contrarian side of me has found the best time to buy is when most don't.

More inventory, less competition, better leverage, more concessions.

Plus... not everyone needs a bank mortgage... half my purchases seller financed which is often a win/win cutting out the middlemen...

Market in my part of the Bay Area stopped cold... daily flood of price reductions from sellers desperate to get out as opposed to holding back because prices were going up...

Real Estate has always been cyclical in my tenure...

 

[2manyrocks]

The increase in the median home price across the US doesn't look like a normal cyclical pattern. It looks like a run up in stock price. Either the fundamentals are there or they are not. Hard to see real estate prices holding after the stock market decline.

Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States

 

[ultrarunner]

Real Estate is traded for various reasons... shelter, income, hedge against inflation, scarcity, etc.

Ive experienced several down cycles from property being boarded up and abandoned, 25% price drop to 80% in some East Oakland neighborhoods 2009-12.

So far it has always come back stronger dollar for dollar not withstanding inflation adjustment.

My 1922 neighborhood sold new for $2500... in 2007 sold for 500k and 2009 bank foreclosures 100k and this year 800k

Lots of money made and lost depending on particulars.

I found it interesting in the 70's popular thinking was Oakland was down for the count with the city selling boarded up homes for $1 if you moved in and made repairs over 5 years...

I can show you homes that went from $1 to 600k in over 40 years...