Do you really think that will happen? its been my experience, that everyone i have run across that faces a similar problem... didnt trade in and or sell a 15 year old vehicle(they bought new) to buy the brand new one. They traded in some 3-5 year old something they were still makeing payments on (on had just recently payed off)
The idea that people drive the same car for more than 7 years is rare. over 10 years is unheard of.
FWIW - so far, while I have bought my previous vehicles new and taken the depreciation hit on the steep part of the curve - first few years - it has not bothered me much because I have kept them for a good long time.
My truck replaced my 1999 Honda Accord with 300000 km on it - which I purchased brand new 10 years before the truck. I would have kept it going as my commute car but it was 5 speed and had the tightest clutch that you could ever imagine. So much that I've injured my back with my time in that car.
My 2005 Odyssey that the DW drives - which was purchased brand new, now has 200000 km on it. We will be keeping it until it dies.
There are some interesting differences I have gathered from some things that we have to consider in the great white north here and I am guessing from the parts of the USA many of you are from. I'm sure it is not much different from the northern states that get as much weather as we do.
For starters, 10 or 12 years is pretty much what we would consider the life of a car up here. The salt on the road in the winter and just the temperatures if you ask me, tend to lower the lives of our vehicles. Thus I think the age vs. mileage equation is often not the same. Heck, I find that I have to rust proof annually to get 10-12 years rust free.
I'm still keeping my options open and will make a final call in the spring. My situation is not quite so desperate as it might have sounded like from my first post. If I truly could not afford it, my truck and every other hobby that I have would be gone.
There are an interesting set of variables to consider including:
- The depreciation hit that I have already taken on the first couple years of the truck.
- Transaction costs (sales taxes etc.)
- Will I be kicking my self and hating my drive if I go to a much cheaper car?
- The cost of a new set of snows and rims for whatever new ride I might get.
- If I don't go with something really really cheap as a commuter car that I can get paid off in a year then the delta in savings starts to make less sense.
- Cost of a used trailer.
- Cost of a dog trailer. One reason I have the truck is that I participate in a sport with my dogs and I have a dog box mounted in my truck. This complicates things a bit. Having my dog(s) in my car makes a mess of things quickly - which is one reason I moved to the truck to begin with.
After some looking around at vehicles I would be happy driving on my commute, I am coming up with stuff that would sell for $15000 or so + taxes + winter tires + trailer + possibly a dog trailer and taking a big hit on my dog box.
The equation is tilting towards keeping the truck as DiamondPilot was suggesting and driving it as I had planned - for a good 10+ years - whatever the life of it is.
I've appreciated all the thoughts. You guys are awesome for getting someone to consider all sides of the equation. Even if I do hang on to the truck, I am more convinced than ever that I need to bank the money once it is paid off - to save for whatever next vehicle will be needed to replace my DW's van - and a cash purchase is the way to go - even if it means purchasing used - which she will be perfectly fine with.
