Interesting chart.
I was curious about the average unemployment rate for those 61 years. The quick spreadsheet says the average was 5.6%. The site also has inflation for the same time period with an average of 3.83% which last year was 3.85%.
Last year we went passed the average to 5.76% Listening to the press over the last few years one would think it was much worse than it really was. Course we are on the uptick in unemployment and inflation so the question is how high will they go?
Since the numbers were in the spreadsheet I went and did a line graph overlaying the inflation and unemployment numbers. There are time when unemployment goes up and inflation goes down. The last time the two were unlinked looks like back in the 1950s. Since then the unemployment and inflation go hand in hand so inflation is about to go up.
Before looking at the inflation and unemployment in a graph we have been planning for a time of high inflation and interest rates. I wish they had the interest rates on the website since it would be interesting to put in the graph.
But I think the interest rates will trend with inflation and unemployment.
There was a chart in the WSJ late last year that covered the ups and downs in the market. We seem to be in a bear market aka down turn. These last roughly 10-20 years. We might have another 2-5 years before the cycle up ticks again.
Given that Congress is about to spend a trillion dollars as a down payment in a stimulus aka pork spending spree I don't see how inflation is not going to go up drastically. Unless someone in Congress gets some sense, what are the chances of finding sense in Congress in enough numbers to stop this madness, we is going to get some higher prices. I would guess our grocery bill has gone up at least 20-30% over the last 4-6 months. Going to get worse I'm afraid.
To put a Trillion dollars in perspective if you equalize a dollar of today with a dollar in the 1940s, WWII cost FOUR trillion dollars. Congress is about to spend 25% of WWII and if you think they are done I have a bridge for you to buy. The states want another trillion. I guess spend a billion here, spend a billion there, and pretty soon you have spent some real money.
We sign off on our ReFi next week. It will remove our variable rate line of credit and give us a 4.5% 30 year mortgage.
Later,
Dan