Yesterday. Would you buy and EV?

[CloverKnollFarms]

So, how much does solar, and the associated opportunity cost, cost? I love it when people discount the fact that they could probably average 10% on that $20k each year, which basically pays for my electricity alone, and leaves the $20k capital alone.

Payoff cannot exclude opportunity cost. I just can’t make solar, or an EV pay off… even at $5/gal. Im all for buying things that I want, like my new $80k pole barn… but at least I don’t pretend like it will EVER benefit me financially.

Just say you like gadgets, you don’t have to justify it with poor math.

 

[meackerman]

Ok, 25 years. At that point the panels are at 70% of their rated power, assuming individual panels and controllers haven't failed outright in that time period. Batteries? 10 year life if you're lucky. Point being that individual systems make no sense for the typical homeowner (not in a sunny climate, can't afford to "invest" in a solar array for 20 years--typical ROI period for non-Californicated areas, or just don't want another damn thing to break around the house).

mine are warrantied to be at least 80% after 25 years, but hopefully I'll be long gone from here by then. I don't have batteries, rely on a propane generator instead.
If someone's electrical bill is less than a couple hundred a month, then I would agree solar prolly doesn't make sense. In California, with our stupid electrical rates, solar makes a whole lot of sense for a lot of people, and our stupid government mandated solar for all new homes....making expensive house prices just that much more expensive...and things like that and they won't why people can't afford to buy a house.

a lot of people like having the home batteries, because our electrical grid isn't all that reliable anymore. I've lost power 4-5 times so far this year and its not weather related nor fire related. We'll see if we get rolling blackouts again this summer.

 

[meackerman]

So, how much does solar, and the associated opportunity cost, cost? I love it when people discount the fact that they could probably average 10% on that $20k each year, which basically pays for my electricity alone, and leaves the $20k capital alone.

Payoff cannot exclude opportunity cost. I just can’t make solar, or an EV pay off… even at $5/gal. Im all for buying things that I want, like my new $80k pole barn… but at least I don’t pretend like it will EVER benefit me financially.

Just say you like gadgets, you don’t have to justify it with poor math.

I'm certainly no financial wizard...first winter in our house, $600/month electrical bills. spent ~$20k (minus 30% tax credit) to put solar on my house and the bill dropped to almost nothing. So pay our electrical company $600/month or put solar in...seemed like an easy question to answer.....but maybe we would have been better paying the $600/month and spending that ~$20k on something else. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[ultrarunner]

So, how much does solar, and the associated opportunity cost, cost? I love it when people discount the fact that they could probably average 10% on that $20k each year, which basically pays for my electricity alone, and leaves the $20k capital alone.

Payoff cannot exclude opportunity cost. I just can’t make solar, or an EV pay off… even at $5/gal. Im all for buying things that I want, like my new $80k pole barn… but at least I don’t pretend like it will EVER benefit me financially.

Just say you like gadgets, you don’t have to justify it with poor math.

I wish there was a sure thing paying 10% in the era of 4% 30-year mortgages...

I know some far excede the .5 percent the money markets pay but I have not been one of those.

 

[fatjay]

So, how much does solar, and the associated opportunity cost, cost? I love it when people discount the fact that they could probably average 10% on that $20k each year, which basically pays for my electricity alone, and leaves the $20k capital alone.

Payoff cannot exclude opportunity cost. I just can’t make solar, or an EV pay off… even at $5/gal. Im all for buying things that I want, like my new $80k pole barn… but at least I don’t pretend like it will EVER benefit me financially.

Just say you like gadgets, you don’t have to justify it with poor math.

That's assuming you have the capital to buy solar vs a loan. You can get solar loans nearly interest free, vs a loan to invest in the market is going to come with a high interest rate. If you consume enough electricity, your ROI is roughly 5 years of producing your electric vs paying your bill. Then after that it's all profit.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Our HIGHEST electric bills, are three months in the winter, topping $250/mo. And, our house is 100% electric.

The average is $150/mo.

In the past 15 years we have averaged 13% in our investments. Not guaranteed, no… but the funny thing is, people still invest their retirement, with no guarantee, so there must be a reason they do.

We contemplated geothermal, but again, without a tax credit (which had expired)… the payoff took too long.

We don’t borrow money. So, there is always opportunity cost.

I also wonder how effective solar would be in Indiana, when we have weeks of overcast skies, when we need electricity most.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

I wish there was a sure thing paying 10% in the era of 4% 30-year mortgages...

I know some far excede the .5 percent the money markets pay but I have not been one of those.

I Bonds are paying 9.6%

 

[ultrarunner]

You may not be an expert, but your instincts are correct. "The consensus" is we need to stop driving ICE vehicles to stop global warming, or pollution, or anxiety, or something. Solar, wind and pixie dust will save the day--coal and natural gas are evil--and nuclear power is off the table, based on a different "consensus".

As you implied, solar energy is so diffuse that it will never provide even 20% of the electricity we need, particularly if 100 million EVs need charging--can you say blackout? Someone will screech "But my house has solar panels and we produce 100% of our power!" If it's true (probably not), the screecher lives in Arizona and he spent $60,000 for panels and batteries for $4000 worth of electricity per year. After 20 years his system is worn out and he spent all that money up front (actual cost $108,000 over 20 years). Dumb. Centralized generation is efficient. Individual systems are primarily toys for those with energy guilt or money to burn. Wind power is even less effective--might produce 20% of our needs with 10 million wind turbines. And they look so nice covering the horizon.

Transitioning to EVs will accomplish exactly zero--except diverting money and natural resources away from other pursuits.

The people who claim "consensus" are environmentalists, not engineers. The environmentalists told the politicians, and off we went. Meanwhile, the engineers are shaking their heads, saying "No No NO!".

Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus. There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.--Michael Crichton

I like what you wrote but it is seldom one size fits all.

A PGE Hydro Engineer lives off grid in Northern CA in what can be described as a parodies... average, creek, pond, etc...

He is fully solar and had one EV.

The cost of his install was much less than PGE to the home and he is a PGE engineer.

He does not have state of the art panels so they were next to nothing as a take off when the original owner upgraded...

As for batteries they are huge commercial 2 volt Telecom batteries picked up for scrap price...

Home is modern and spacious with in floor radiant heating...

Cost of materials maybe 90% discounted plus his free labor and engineering.

I find if amusing a well paid grid engineer chooses to live off grid...

 

[ultrarunner]

I Bonds are paying 9.6%

Yes but limited if I understand?

I don't think I can purchase 40 or 60k in I Bonds...

 

[jyoutz]

Yes but limited if I understand?

I don't think I can purchase 40 or 60k in I Bonds...

I think $10k maximum purchase per person.