Now I am worried!

[deputyrpa]

Wasn't it Harry Truman who said, "If you took all the economists in the world and laid'em end to end, they'd point in all directions?"

I'm not sure....but that means that at least one of them got it right.

 

[Ken_CT]

The fact that a NINJA home loan was even available speaks volumes.
NINJA = No Income, No Job, or Assets

 

[mjarrels]

Heard on the news yesterday that the Fed Govt is cranking up the money printing press... use your FEL to carry cash to buy food! It's going to get ugly!

mark

 

[jimmyj]

My wife and I just paid off some debts early and locked in my mortgate for long term at a low rate to be safe. I was not convinced about the massive inflation before but now I'm starting to worry about it. Scary stuff to say the least.

The good news is that I can use the new BH to make a root cellar for the garden veggies! There always is a silver tractor lining!

 

[JoelD]

Great one Deputy.

My dad's advice has never failed me.

I think one of the keys to success is moderation in most all things.

I've been hunkering down for a while now and I'm thinking the boss, mini-boss and I are set up about as good as we can be for the long haul (can obviously always have more).

One of our strengths is none of us want for a whole lot.

We're heading into a complete shock to the system for some of the younger generation, those for whom this is their first really tough economic time.

Joel

 

[rox]

Well lets just hope I am way wrong about this...
I just got a fax from Agricredit (financers of Kioti products and many other brands of equipment) and rates went up like you wouldn't believe..used equipment was apox 8.5-9.5% Now they are up over 11%.
Okay so now you woundering what this means..
Well these nice financing rates that the manufactures are offering are buy down rates from the banks.
So if the standard rate is 7.5% manufactures have to take money out of their profits and use that to buy the rates down to the attractive 0% and so on.

Long story short I think rates are going to go up quit a bit and we may loose the 0%
Now keep in mind I am speculating.
If this happens I think we as equipment dealers are going to be in a world of hurting.
This coupled with some of the biggest price increases I have ever seen it the equipment business make me scratch my head.

Right now the only thing driving customers in is the attractive financing.
If we lose that I'm not sure how we will be able to sell.

Even this year my profits were cut a little bit because of fuel cost and now we can't afford to be taking more out of our pockets for buy downs.

Hmm I,m starting to sound like the Big 3 car manufactures!

I hope I am wrong and you all make fun of me but I think this time we may be faced with some challenges.

As of today I do not see my dealership disolving because of how dieversified we are but it will hurt a little.

The current sitaution has got me worried. I decided this year to wait on my marketing until after the inauguration. Usually in December right when we have finished picking I send samples of our olive oil to the Chefs. It is really hard to get their attention wiht Holiday parties they are working on etc. But with the uneasiness in the world economy I have decided to make no contacts at all until after the inauguration when hopefully people will have more of a feeling of hope. iGourmet.com is out of 3 of our oils and only has Aglandau left so that is a hopeful sign. With our stores waiting until after the inauguration will mean that Christmas is over and they will know where they are financially. I jsut don't think this exact moment is the right time to try to take orders. The good news is our prices will be the same as last year, well in Euros.

Rick, I know what you mean about jsut sitting on the sidelines and waiting to see what happens. I think this whole mess we are in can be traced back to the spike in high gasoline prices. That is when the downward trend started. I hope the guys who bought our restaurant get their bank loan, my hsuband and I ahve our fingers crossed and there is nto much else we can do but sit around and wait to see if they get it or not. I won't know until about 2 months from now how our business will be affected.

Our German distributor placed a good order with us in early December so I have my fingers crossed there as well for our European sales. I spent a quite a bit of time designing and printed a special label which I thne put on every bottle showing that last year we were selcted as the Best Oil in France and 2 oils in the Top 35 in the world. That little extra work to have it right on the bottles should help sales. Our french Distributor also ordered and I spent a lot of time printing up our award sheet and rubberbanding it to each bottle. I'm doing what I can to show the consumer why they should buy our olive oil and I'm doing it in English, French and German. it is a tough eceonomy I'll go for every edge I can get. I'm uneasy as our product, like all premium olive oils, is on the high end of the price spectrum. It is the kind fo product that you really don't "have" to have right now. I only hope and pray we have hooked enough people on our specific oils that it is hard for them to switch to a different brand. Time will tell but I'm going to wait until after the inauguration and hope the mood in the world is better by then. I honestly can't see raising prices, I would rather increase the amount of oil sold than increase prices and since we had a very good harvest this year we have more oil to sell, so hopefully that will work out okay.

When I was back "home" in the states in September I was shocked at prices of everything but mostly I noticed the high price of food. When gasoline prices go up so dramatically that raises the cost of all goods because of transportation costs. I don't know rick, I'm nervous like you.

 

[deputyrpa]

I am not in a positioin that I would want to be in these times. I am in the first few years of a large real estate purchase and in the second year of building my house. Although I am currently enjoying a low farm credit mortgage rate which nets ~2.25%, I need to finish the house, get a C of O and lock in to a low fixed rate. Unfortunately, I underestimated the cost of construction due to skyrocketing building material and fuel costs. That has left me with a credit load in addition to the mortgage. They will be folded in upon closing of the mortgage, but it is more of a monthly burden that I had planned.

I do not think there will be more "hope" upon inauguration. The worst is yet to come, for you don't fix a liquidity problem with more liquidity (and get away with it). We've never seen so much government spending in so little time....ever. Wealth has to be created, not transferred, but government can only accomplish the latter. Like the home budget, either it is payed back (read:generations of taxpayers), or bankrupty occurs. Unlike the home budget, however, the debt can be eased by inflation of the fiat currency. Each solution is not palatable.

I'm sorry to sound gloomy, and I hope I am entirely incorrect.

The good news ia my DK45 is making an awful engine racket. Sounds like it's knocking really bad....ideas?

 

[jgrreed]

I am not in a positioin that I would want to be in these times. I am in the first few years of a large real estate purchase and in the second year of building my house. Although I am currently enjoying a low farm credit mortgage rate which nets ~2.25%, I need to finish the house, get a C of O and lock in to a low fixed rate. Unfortunately, I underestimated the cost of construction due to skyrocketing building material and fuel costs. That has left me with a credit load in addition to the mortgage. They will be folded in upon closing of the mortgage, but it is more of a monthly burden that I had planned.

Me too Man, you're not alone. We can lose sleep together.... I'm gonna simply put my head down and work my butt off, while cutting the spending, to try and get rid of as much debt as possible, ASAP. I too am quite worried about interest rates.

-J.

 

[PA hayseed]

Hmm.... seems to me like most people here think the same way. Some of my coworkers thought I was nuts for driving 2+ hours through the snow to work overtime. I kept telling them that the OT won't be around much longer, due to the economy. Today when I got done working overtime I was told that they don't need us for overtime for now... but to check back later in January...possibly.

My buddy runs a restaurant and the suppliers are jacking prices up on him at almost a monthly rate now.

I can't tell you how many people I have met that have been laid off in the last two months. Everyone else seems oblivious, like it can't happen to them. I hope it doesn't, things will get really bad, and not just economically.

 

[blueriver]

I feel for everyone, I agree it is scary and going to be more so in the near future ...

I am fortunate, no mortgage, a small equipment loan and credit line ... we raise our own beef and pork, the freezers are always full, the garden has expanded to the point of using a 2 row planter and am seeking a two row cultivator ... have been using a 1 row, this spring I am planning to plant some corn for a feed source next fall. The kids and grandkids think I am over reacting, at least we will eat!!

The wifes truck and mine is paid for and no plans to buy a new one ...