Figured I'd post this from a fellow I read on investing from time to time. He has been pretty spot on for the 5 years or so I've read his stuff.
TIFWIW
Link for whole report
http://jsmineset.com/2011/03/24/market-commentary-from-guild-investment-2/
Market Commentary From Guild Investment
Posted: Mar 24 2011 By: Monty Guild Post Edited: March 24, 2011 at 1:15 pm
Filed under: Guild Investment
Unrest and Turmoil = Rising Oil Prices
The continuing political upheaval in North Africa and the Middle East along with the epic disasters in Japan are sowing chaos and confusion throughout the business world. In this week’s newsletter, we will examine just how all this is playing out.
Let’s look at the Arab world first, which is being shaken to the core. Starting with Tunisia at the end of last year, serious civil protests, armed conflict, and unprecedented criticism of repressive governments have erupted in places like Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, and Syria.
In total, nine of the eleven nations sharing land or water borders with Saudi Arabia have experienced demonstrations. The Saudis government is feeling the heat and has dispatched forces to quell protests in Bahrain. Trouble is likely to surface in Saudi Arabia because much of the country’s wealth is located under lands where Shia Muslims are in the majority. Keep in mind that the ruling House of Saud is Sunni Muslim. The distrust and bad blood between the two sects predates oil discovery and is not likely to be solved with oil money.
The current political events in the Middle East are about freedom from repression but also represent a basic struggle between these two Muslim groups for control of revenues from the huge oil fields in that part of the world.
Saudi Politics and Energy
The events in the Saudi neighborhood are spooking many investors. Egypt and Tunisia set the stage with some violence but had an eventual transition. Bahrain and Yemen are experiencing violent demonstrations and a strong government response. Libya has developed into a civil war that now includes NATO involvement. Investors are concerned that Saudi oil fields may eventually come under fire and if production is diminished or halted a rapid rise in the price of oil will ensue.
Historically, Saudi Arabia has been the swing producer that supplements global oil supplies during times of international crisis, oil shortages, and high oil prices. Its actions in those situations have kept prices relatively stable. Examples: the Kuwaiti oil crisis and the Iraqi production declines.
Today, many experienced oil observers believe the Saudis have limited ability to increase production of high quality crude to help the world withstand a shortage situation. Moreover, their costs to produce oil are rapidly rising. The Saudi government recently stepped up funding to religious establishments, public sector salaries, pensions and payments for the unemployed and underemployed to the tune of $38 billion dollars per year. Some analysts suggest this adds $10 to the price of every barrel of Saudi oil produced this year. They think that social welfare costs are now so high that the government will want to keep oil at $90 dollars per barrel. Therefore we do not expect the Saudis to provide relief at the pump by quickly increasing supplies should oil prices fall much below current levels.
Add into the equation that Saudi Arabia has the ability to increase production by only about 2 million barrels a day — which may seem like a lot, but not to a world that is expected to consume 89.4 million barrels daily in 2011. That’s a drop in the bucket. A tight supply and demand situation remains.
Elsewhere: Oil Supply Growth is Elusive
Outside of the Middle East and North Africa, other major oil-producing states are having their own problems and failing to make good on promises to expand production.
Nigeria is plagued with terrorism, corruption, and national budget deficits that have hampered its ability to pay its share of oil exploration costs.
In Venezuela, production has been sputtering for years, a result of Dictator Hugo Chavez’s purge of experienced technocrats in the national oil company in favor of less qualified individuals who support his regime. Fed up, many of the nation’s educated and professional class have headed for the exits and left Venezuela, and who can blame them? Perhaps in a joke, but more likely reflective of his attitude toward the business world and the U.S., Chavez suggested recently that capitalism could be to blame for why there is no life on Mars.
Along with these developments, Norway and Mexico have both experienced oil production declines in recent years.
Meanwhile, Oil Demand Grows Steadily
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What Does All This Mean to You?
Look for oil prices to hit $150 per barrel in 2011.