The West is burning!

[aczlan]

I picture a truly old-growth forest as one with lots of standing live trees that have seen better days, but still kicking, and some fallen trees that are rotting. There will be new growth colonizing the area exposed by the hole in the canopy from fallen trees. There will be disturbance areas from wind and fire, but that is natural. An old-growth forest is not just a pile of wood waiting to burn, it falls, it rots, etc.

Rotting wood doesn't burn very well, and the full canopy of a mature forest will contribute to higher moisture levels at ground level by reducing evaporation, ground exposure due to the mulching effect of rotting materials, and air movement.

If what you picture were the case, forests would naturally extinguish themselves on a large scale and become grasslands. It doesn't happen in a normal process. What is abnormal is the damage (fuel) caused by the bark beetles combined with generally drier and warmer conditions.

Huge, abnormal outbreaks of insects can indicate that an ecosystem is not in balance. Climate shifts are contributing to invasive insect problems here in Maine too.

In this article, natural predators are being studied:
New control strategies for 'bipolar' bark beetles

"The pine beetles produce pheromones, chemical signals, that attract enough competitors and predators to prevent outbreaks," says Sharon Martinson, a member of the research team and first author on the new paper. "Leaving more dead trees in forests can provide habitat for competitor beetles that rarely kill tree, and for predators that eat both beetle species."

That works out here, but the problem (as I understand it) is that its too dry out there for the trees to rot and decompose, so you end up with a lot of dead dry trees.
The cycle out there used to be that the trees would burn down every so often and you would re-start the cycle again. There are even some species of tree where the seeds only germinate after a fire.

Aaron Z

 

[dave1949]

That works out here, but the problem (as I understand it) is that its too dry out there for the trees to rot and decompose, so you end up with a lot of dead dry trees.
The cycle out there used to be that the trees would burn down every so often and you would re-start the cycle again. There are even some species of tree where the seeds only germinate after a fire.

Aaron Z

I suppose that is true. The fire pictures do show many areas with very thin (by Eastern standards) stands of trees. Probably what I have in mind is found more on the wet side of the mountains in Washington and Oregon.

 

[cqaigy2]

That works out here, but the problem (as I understand it) is that its too dry out there for the trees to rot and decompose, so you end up with a lot of dead dry trees.
The cycle out there used to be that the trees would burn down every so often and you would re-start the cycle again. There are even some species of tree where the seeds only germinate after a fire.

Aaron Z

For sure that happens as well but it's not so simple as there is only one way forest grow on the east coast and one way they grow on the west coast. Where the large areas of old growth/ 2nd growth are still intact, they create their own climate and increased moisture and decreased temperature.

One of the reasons for wildfires is that smallish fires, understandably, get put out and the accumulation of fuel builds up, then add high temp, low humidity and there's a recipe for a wildfire.

 

[bcp]

Interesting report:

LARGE AIRTANKER MODERNIZATION STRATEGY
http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/aviation/airtanker_modernization_strategy.pdf

With the changing climate, fire seasons will likely become longer and more severe. This has already started to occur with the Western fire season now, on average, 78 days longer than in the mid-1980s

The trend for the number of acres burned annually by wildfire indicates a doubling of acres burned since 1960. Cumulative drought, extensive insect kill in western forests, and regional shifts of population into the wildland urban interface have resulted in an increased level of wildfire activity that is expected to continue into the future.
...
However, although fire activity has increased, the Forest Service's airtanker fleet has been reduced as a result of airworthiness issues-from 43 airtankers in 2000 to 11 airtankers in 2011.
.

 

[Larro Darro]

I'm afraid these hot, dry years we have been having out west are going to be the new normal, not just a passing drought. And it affects more than just wildfires. When you have so many people depending on the snow pack for drinking water, a few years of early snow melts can lead to water rationing in the cities. In twenty or thirty years, we might be seeing much smaller 'big' western cities.

 

[dave1949]

It seems a given that the populations in drier areas will invest more, and get a lot more creative, in water management. If the current trends continue, there will be growing water demand and shrinking water resources, that cannot go on much longer without making some changes.

 

[charlz]

Look at pdf pages 4 and 8 in this link: (sorry, I can't seem to copy the pdf's)
http://www.idahoforests.org/img/pdf/JayOL_IFPC-tour_09-13-12.pdf

Page 4 (need to scroll down to bottom half of page) is a graph showing acres burned in wildfires 1916-2012, in eleven Western states.

Page 8 is the total Idaho timber harvest by land ownership category, years 1947-2011.

That graph on page 4 shows how the fire fighting strategy has changed. The period 1950 to about 1980 it was a 'put it out quick' mentality. Fire fighting was largely localized with a focus on preserving the resources e.g. logging etc. Fire look out towers were used for the first part of that period, any little wisp of smoke and they dropped in some Smoke Jumpers. There were also many more loggers in the woods and they would often act as first responders. Fire fighting money was plentiful because it came from the timber sales.

As technology took over the lookout towers closed but fires had to be bigger in order to be detected. Logging decreased as environmentalists began to sue over every timber sale, road building contract etc. Less people in the woods to detect and respond to fires. With less fire fighting dollars they began to consolidate and prioritize fire fighting resources. We began to get the 'let it burn' policy. Today whether or not to fight a fire and whether to go for suppression or just containment is based on a lot of factors. Where it is, what it is close to, what other fires are burning and need resources, how much fuel there is in the forest, air quality issues for those down wind etc etc all come into play.

On page 8 the top graph you will notice State Land timber harvests have not really changed. This is because these lands are mandated by State law to maximize the income from those lands. They have largely been in rotational harvesting for decades. The environmentalists can't get it shut down as it would violate the law to stop logging it.

 

[charlz]

It seems a given that the populations in drier areas will invest more, and get a lot more creative, in water management. If the current trends continue, there will be growing water demand and shrinking water resources, that cannot go on much longer without making some changes.

I dunno, Las Vegas doesn't seem to be changing their ways very much. Lake Mead is at only 47% of capacity. Another 25 ft of water level drop and Nevada starts running into mandatory cuts. Be interesting to see if they change their ways or just change the laws

 

[Larry Caldwell]

The problem is that you either have to cut in those old growth forests, or it WILL eventually burn as the deadwood piles up, the bugs (pine borer?) kill trees and one lightning strike will set the whole thing on fire...

Aaron Z

Yes, the West has a fire climax ecology. Grasslands or forest, it WILL burn eventually. The problem is that western forests are being managed from Washington DC, by people who have never even seen the land they pretend to manage. There's no doubt that an important resource is going up in smoke every year because of obstructionism by organizations like the Wilderness Society (headquartered in Washington DC). Meanwhile, the USA imports over half of it's wood fiber needs from other countries.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

I suppose that is true. The fire pictures do show many areas with very thin (by Eastern standards) stands of trees. Probably what I have in mind is found more on the wet side of the mountains in Washington and Oregon.

One of the species that will not reproduce without a huge disruption is the ubiquitous Douglas fir. It requires direct sunlight and contact with mineral soil to germinate and grow, either a forest fire or logging operation. Any time you see a stand of pure D. fir, it is the result of either a clear cut or catastrophic fire.