Dave,
So an analysis by the Heritage Foundation is dubious, while an analysis funded by Fast Food Forward is not to be questioned?
I have started reading the Fast Food Forward report, but have yet to reach the part where they talk about the additional unemployment that will result from government-mandated wage increases, the substitution of capital for labor, the roadblocks for folks that might be thinking about opening a business, the prospects for employment of high school dropouts (especially young black males), etc.
I will report back after I have read their discussion of those issues.
Steve
Steve,
Not at all. The point is, if there is a counter argument, it needs to be made, made well enough to withstand scrutiny, and be inclusive enough to be relevant.
What is relevant to Fast Food Forward is that minimum wage earners are not earning a living, and that is reflected by the fact that 52% of fast food workers' families represent some sort of welfare burden when only four of the major welfare programs are considered.
As you know, the minimum wage was first set in 1938 at 25 cents/hour, and has been adjusted 28 times since.
The impact of raising the minimum wage is limited by the number who are actually paid at that rate.
Minimum wage workers account for 4.7 percent of hourly paid workers in 2012 : The Editor’s Desk : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
In 2012, there were 3.6 million hourly paid workers in the United States with wages at or below the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. These workers made up 4.7 percent of the 75.3 million workers age 16 and over who were paid at hourly rates. In 2012, 6 percent of women who were paid hourly rates had wages at or below the prevailing federal minimum, compared with about 3 percent of men.
Looking at the population segment that matters the most in addressing poverty:
Median weekly earnings at $771, third quarter 2013 : The Editor’s Desk : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The 1st Quartile of weekly earnings for high school graduates 25 and older, no college, is $477, the median is $659, the 3rd Quartile is $933.
There are roughly 33.6 million employed people who are high school graduates 25 or over. $15/hour is $600 per 40 hour week. Roughly 50% of those 33.6M are those who are earning less than $15/hour, or 16.8 million people. Total non-farm seasonally adjusted employment is over 135 million. A $15/hour minimum wage would affect ~12% of total employment when this segment (25 or older, HS diploma, no college) is considered.
In any case, I think you and I are viewing two different concepts. I'm saying that a wage needs to provide a reasonable living. You are pointing out the mechanics of the economics involved. I am sure you sincerely believe that minding those mechanisms is the surest path to an equitable and healthy society, and you may be correct. I am worried that the current and future reality does not reflect that.
Hiring of human labor in the US since the mid-2000's has been abysmal. I don't see how it will not remain so until global wage costs become more equalized. Meanwhile, the cost of living in the US is not declining.
There are social issues that seem to be immune. We will never raise people out of poverty by paying them less than the costs of living. We will never beat the machines with human labor; that trend is clear. Rising wages can accelerate that progression while more people are born every minute. The tenets of economics can explain that, but what social answers can it provide? Eventually, a social solution will be needed.
There are not a lot of employed young blacks now, and many who are do not make a living wage. Poverty has a huge cost in social disruption. That is clearly visible in incarceration rates:
Five things everyone should know about US incarceration - Opinion - Al Jazeera English
"Mass incarceration has had a devastating effect on blacks and Hispanics in the US. African Americans are six times more likely to be incarcerated than a white person and non-white Latinos are almost three times more likely to be incarcerated, according to the Pew Center on the States.
Incarceration hits hardest at young black and Latino men without high school education. An astounding 11 percent of black men, aged between 20 and 34, are behind bars.
Much of the racial disparity is a result of the US' war on drugs - started by President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. By 1988, blacks were arrested on drug charges at five times the rate of whites.
By 1996, the rate of drug admissions to state prison for black men was 13 times greater than the rate for white men. This is despite the fact that African Americans use drugs at roughly the same rate as white Americans."
The Top 10 Most Startling Facts About People of Color and Criminal Justice in the United States | Center for American Progress
"According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, one in three black men can expect to go to prison in their lifetime."
