Who can afford a new truck anymore?

[KiwiBro]

Auto inventories have risen to record highs as if the manufacturers actually want to drive themselves off the cliff. A mere blip is one thing but 60 months of rising inventories and the attendant pressure to make sales almost necessitates loose lending such that the sub-prime auto loan credit bubble will be a doozie when it bursts. As seems to be usual these days, the pathetic securitization machine is running riot behind the scenes and will magnify the losses into a tsunami of pain for someone. Guess who?

 

[kenmac]

I have pulled 14K with my 07 2500.. Pulling the load wasn't the issue.. It was stopping it.. 4 wheel trailer brakes and truck brakes....

 

[TomSeller]

I have pulled 14K with my 07 2500.. Pulling the load wasn't the issue.. It was stopping it.. 4 wheel trailer brakes and truck brakes....

Exactly.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Auto inventories have risen to record highs as if the manufacturers actually want to drive themselves off the cliff. A mere blip is one thing but 60 months of rising inventories and the attendant pressure to make sales almost necessitates loose lending such that the sub-prime auto loan credit bubble will be a doozie when it bursts. As seems to be usual these days, the pathetic securitization machine is running riot behind the scenes and will magnify the losses into a tsunami of pain for someone. Guess who?

KiwiBro I read yesterday there are $1 trillion out in vehicle loans in the USA, average amount is like $28K and monthly payments were $466, $488 or something like that. It talked about the number of repos that will develop will drive down used prices and call for discounting to make new sales as easy credit fades. Not sure what to make of this point of view but it wants to make me not borrow money for anything.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Posted once was enough.

 

[kenmac]

there is a new car /truck dealership not too far from me that was just brought up on charges by the feds.. for falsifying documents, so that buyers with bad credit could get a new car / truck loan..

This was don to get their sales #'s up

There have been several from the dealership already sentenced to jail time, and others that have been found guilty, and are awaiting sentencing

Like someone else said.. This bubble is also going to burst ! Why the feds, banks, etc, can't see this coming ,is beyond me !

 

[KiwiBro]

KiwiBro I read yesterday there are $1 trillion out in vehicle loans in the USA, average amount is like $28K and monthly payments were $466, $488 or something like that. It talked about the number of repos that will develop will drive down used prices and call for discounting to make new sales as easy credit fades. Not sure what to make of this point of view but it wants to make me not borrow money for anything.

Scary stuff. Who stands to lose most when the loan-backed securities/derivatives start unwinding? That side of the impending train wreck will be interesting because it never ceases to amaze me how far and wide the projection of losses can be when leveraged to the eyeballs. If there is no reason to believe derivative and other financial instrument channel-stuffing vermin were not exterminated last time around, or that enough people in positions of governance really care about such things, then I think it is safe to say the actual exposure is far, far greater than that $1t.

The market has been burning the candle at both ends, scraping the bottom of the barrel for some time now, with some of if not the lowest loan rejection rates in history while something like a 3rd (and rising) of auto loans are sub-prime. Simultaneously, inventories rise and the desperate (if not wilfully pathetic) reliance on stellar volume growth in markets like China has been exposed as hopeless, so the whole shebang appears to be teetering on a knife edge.

At the risk of appearing heartless, I sincerely hope the implosion really bites and for long enough that humanity will get at least a generation of responsible and moral behaviour beaten into it before greed and immorality creep back in as I'm sure it will. It seems to be a lesson we seem ****-bent on never learning well enough.

 

[Copperhead]

What is truly telling, is the price difference of a typical 2500 loaded up, and a commercial semi truck. I got a 2013 Freightliner with 70" mid roof walk in sleeper, built in refrigerator, hanging clothes closet with more additional cabinet space than many small travel trailers, custom surround sound stereo system, total air ride suspension, premium Signature series interior with wood trim throughout, built in inverter / battery charger to provide 120 AC to the sleeper off the batteries and will keep batteries charged up when on shore power, factory installed Webasto diesel fired sleeper heater, and premium noise abatement and premium Arctic insulation packages. 18 speed transmission and Alcoa Durabrite aluminum wheels all the way around. Total cost before trade... $115K. And it had 300K mile base warranty on everything with 750K mile base warranty on the trans and diffs.

Yet a small 2500HD with a 6.0L gasser stickers for mid to high 40K? Or a diesel 2500HD loaded up is over half the price of this semi truck? The pickup OEM's are in the rip off game.

 

[Loadstar]

What is truly telling, is the price difference of a typical 2500 loaded up, and a commercial semi truck. I got a 2013 Freightliner with 70" mid roof walk in sleeper, built in refrigerator, hanging clothes closet with more additional cabinet space than many small travel trailers, custom surround sound stereo system, total air ride suspension, premium Signature series interior with wood trim throughout, built in inverter / battery charger to provide 120 AC to the sleeper off the batteries and will keep batteries charged up when on shore power, factory installed Webasto diesel fired sleeper heater, and premium noise abatement and premium Arctic insulation packages. 18 speed transmission and Alcoa Durabrite aluminum wheels all the way around. Total cost before trade... $115K. And it had 300K mile base warranty on everything with 750K mile base warranty on the trans and diffs. Yet a small 2500HD with a 6.0L gasser stickers for mid to high 40K? Or a diesel 2500HD loaded up is over half the price of this semi truck? The pickup OEM's are in the rip off game.

I have a freight liner fld120 and a 78 load star and they farm plate and insure cheaper than my f250. That's why I don't understand why one would buy a "heavy duty" pickup load it to its max so it can strain it's weak guts out when you could get a used medium duty truck that is actually built to work for a 1/4 of the price.

 

[TomSeller]

I have a freight liner fld120 and a 78 load star and they farm plate and insure cheaper than my f250. That's why I don't understand why one would buy a "heavy duty" pickup load it to its max so it can strain it's weak guts out when you could get a used medium duty truck that is actually built to work for a 1/4 of the price.

Interesting point. Hard to disagree. This may be my chance to get a real truck.