Forecasters warn that "Godzilla El Nino" could hit U.S.

[TomSeller]

El Nino looks like a good bet to happen later this year.

Southern CA will likely get a good drenching. I lived in Orange County in the 1990s when we had several EL Nino events. One of them caused the Santa Ana River to nearly top the levees which would have flooded my neighborhood.

However, here in Northern CA it's 50/50 (historically) whether any given El Nino will mean gully washers. Which is bad news for drought alleviation since nearly all of the large reservoirs that capture snow melt and rain runoff are located here. These reservoirs are running dry in a hurry.

Consequently, the agriculture industry in CA has been pumping ground water like there's no tomorrow. That's dramatically lowering the water table in the Great Central Valley and in the North Sacramento Valley. Ground subsidence is a real problem in areas between Bakersfield and Stockton. Causes leaks and breaks in the large and small irrigation canals.

I checked the most recent ground water elevation (GWE) maps that were released last month. At my former ranch in Tehama County the water level in shallow wells (200 feet deep or less) has dropped about 30 feet in the 2004-14 period. In the one year period covering 2013-14, the drop was about 12 feet. My guess is that most of that 30 ft drop has happened in the past four years of severe drought that has caused the orchard growers in my neighborhood to pump groundwater year round to save their trees.

When my well was drilled in May 2005, the water level stood about 55 ft below ground level. In July 2014 my neighbor's well (pump at 90 ft level) went dry. It's about 500 ft away from my well which is 154 feet deep with the pump at the 120 ft level. If the water table continues to drop at 12 ft/year, my pump should become uncovered in 2-3 years. The pump (1.5 hp, 30 gal/min) could be lowered to maybe 135 ft but that could cause sediment in the bottom of the well to be stirred up by the pump. So better filters would have to be installed. That would buy maybe a year of extended service from that well.

After that time a new well would have to be drilled. The existing well has 6" dia steel casing and cost $21/ft to drill in 2005. Total cost of the existing well was $5500. Today that drilling cost here in Northern CA is $50-60/ft. A new well would have to be drilled into a lower strata at 400-500 ft depth. So figure ~ $30,000 for that deep well.

That's one of the reasons I sold the place in Jan 2015 after 10 years of satisfied ownership.

Wow, all that from "One super hot day over the summer, it's climate change"?

Amazing some think what is going on in California is an overnight fluke that will go back to normal the next day.

 

[dragoneggs]

I think what we have here is the 'glass is half full vs. the glass is half empty' crowd here. I am not the sharpest tool in the shed but I can argue this both ways. Depends on the data you want to look at. Personally my elementary opinion is we as humans are taking far too much credit for the change in climate. I see 'dumb' animals behave and react better than a weatherman's prediction. Let's move forward and individually do what we think is right to preserve our environment, but don't think we are in control.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

I think what we have here is the 'glass is half full vs. the glass is half empty' crowd here. I am not the sharpest tool in the shed but I can argue this both ways. Depends on the data you want to look at. Personally my elementary opinion is we as humans are taking far too much credit for the change in climate. I see 'dumb' animals behave and react better than a weatherman's prediction. Let's move forward and individually do what we think is right to preserve our environment, but don't think we are in control.

Yup, Lebanon and North Africa once had cedar forests.

Crushing as it may well be to our collective human ego, I suspect the giant, flaming, sky ball rather than human twiddling.

 

[EddieWalker]

I'm from California and know a little bit about it's history. Dry conditions there, and droughts are very common throughout history. They fluctuate from severe drought to flooding often and the pattern is well developed. Poor management of recourse and not planning ahead are their biggest problems. They refuse to deal with the dry conditions due to environmental concerns and feel that fires are the natural method to do it. That goes back to Al Gore and Yellowstone. They are removing dams so the fish can swim upstream without having to go through the special channels built for the fish. They have not built a new reservoir in decades to store more water, even though the population has increased beyond their ability to provide water to them. Third world countries are converting sea water to drinking water, but California refuses.

Using California for an example of anything means ignoring the history there of creating their own problems and blaming everyone one and anything else for their problems.

Overall in the US and North America, we have had an overly wet year. Previous years where dryer. In the grand scheme of things going back decades and centuries, you will see that it all averages out and there is no trend or pattern indicating anything unusual. Only cherry picking the extremes and then manipulating the data, like saying it's the hottest month since 1930 makes some people think the planet is warming up instead of questioning why was it hotter in the 30's then it is today?

 

[RedNeckGeek]

All good points, Eddie, but please don't include me with the "they" you refer to, even though I live in Kalifornia. Like any emerging trend, many start here, and refusing to accept personal responsibility for one's actions is unfortunately one of them. That goes all the way from picking up your trash to deciding what or who to vote for (if you even choose to vote). And speaking of votes, the ones in Kalifornia legislature are too frequently determined by their impact on the politicians' future, not the welfare of the state or its citizens. I think it's called "bread and circuses".

As far as actual data goes, with the advent of personal weather stations there has never been more of it. Thousands can be found at such sights as weatherunderground. That site also offers a huge collection of historical data, so a determined person can get a pretty good idea of what the weather conditions are for almost any location over a fairly significant time period.

But as a pragmatist, I find it more useful to just deal with the changes rather than waste time trying to assign blame. Drip irrigation and drought resistant plantings save pump time, helping to offset the higher bills from the A/C. Those bills have me giving serious thought to a solar electric array, and a thermal solar one, too. The well's already at 490', and goes into limestone, and I'm pretty sure what water it gets comes in from the strata above and runs down the hole in the rock. So going deeper isn't likely to make any difference. I'm also thinking about installing a couple of 10k gallon water tanks up the hill, both to stave off shortages and to give firefighters something to work with when (not if) a wildfire sweeps through here.

Do I ever think about moving? Sometimes, but at the end of the day I realize I'd have a much harder time dealing with a harsher climate elsewhere on a day-to-day basis than making a few adjustments in the living arrangements here. As far as politics goes, I think the whole country's headed down the tubes, and the only difference is that Kalifornia is likely to get there first.

:2cents:

 

[TomSeller]

I'm from California and know a little bit about it's history. They refuse to deal with the dry conditions due to environmental concerns and feel that fires are the natural method to do it. That goes back to Al Gore and Yellowstone.

Yep. Al Gore and Yellowstone have everything do with climate change in California. I got a bridge to sell those that believe this.

 

[bcp]

Some pre-historical southwest droughts:

Collapse: Chaco Canyon

In the period between A.D. 1125 and 1180, very little rain fell in the region. After 1180, rainfall briefly returned to normal. From 1270 to 1274 there was another long drought, followed by another period of normal rainfall. In 1275, yet another drought began. This one lasted 14 years.

 

[cat fever]

Be careful what you wish for. When I was in the USAF at Hill AFB we had 60 inches of snow in December 1983. Remember when the Great Salt Lake flooded I-80?

I was living in South Carolina at the time but yes I do remember it and watched on TV.
Winter of 93-94 was also a great one, shoveling snow off the roof tops so they wouldn't fall in. Chest high snow right down town. Great snowmobiling weather.:thumbsup:

 

[cat fever]

As long as we don't have a Sharknado we should all be fine

"O he(( no".

 

[buickanddeere]

Just another invented crisis to keep the public all scared and attention diverted. Developed from at best a minor issue into something that some opportunist can make a pile of $$$ with. Look at carbon credit trading for example.
A few decades ago the whole gist of it was settled by saying " That was a cold winter or that was a mild winter".