Hurricane Irma

[dmccarty]

I have been watching Irma for a while now and the one model I follow had Irma going up the east coast and maybe hitting New England and/or Canada. The problem was that the time frame was 10 days out and forecasts are really only "good" out to three or four days.

What has been interesting is that as time past, Irma's track has moved farther and farther south and now matches what NOAA is forecasting. Yesterday, the GFS model had Irma hitting SC/NC and today it is moving south of FLA just like NOAA. Yesterday NOAA had the storm lining up on Miami.

This morning the GFS model has the storm making a sharp turn and heading straight up FLA 6-7 days from now. But that is so far out in time that the forecast is really a roll of the dice.

The scary thing is that if Irma goes through the straights of FLA and continues west, that puts in right smack dab in TX. :shocked::shocked:

But does look like the islands are going to get smacked.

Later,
Dan

 

[EddieWalker]

We are all afraid of Irma. Nobody can comprehend what another big storm would do to the TX Coast. Hate to hope it hits Florida, but hopefully it will weaken and only be a minor storm.

 

[scott_vt]

Fingers cross she does hard right.

Good Morning Thomas,
Im glad you said a HARD right and not just a right, we dont want it coming up here !

 

[rekees4300]

The scary thing is that if Irma goes through the straights of FLA and continues west, that puts in right smack dab in TX. :shocked::shocked:

Deja Vu? ... Irma could become another Katrina

View attachment 520768

 

[s219]

Still too much scatter in the models to know where it will go long term, but it seems likely it will cruise over or to the north of Cuba. Where it goes from there, or whether it turns is an unknown. I have seen tracks anywhere from the Gulf area all the way up to NJ, and then some out to sea. In another ~3 days we should have more certainty from the models.

I never look at a single model, but rather the "ensemble" which is the set of different simulations where they take the expected starting conditions (current hurricane position, speed, etc) and they add all sorts of little variations (butterfly effects) and see how those little variations perturb the simulation. So you'll see the main operational model and then a spaghetti of all the little variations from that. Here's an example:



The reality is that none of those solutions could be right. It really just gives an idea of the error band of the prediction simulation. But I like looking at that, as it sort of tells me how certain or uncertain we are at this point. I feel certain it will skirt over or near Cuba. But from there, it's still a big unknown.

 

[Thomas]

Good Morning Thomas,
Im glad you said a HARD right and not just a right, we dont want it coming up here !

.................................................
Afternoon Scotty.
Still showing scars from tropical storm Irene years back when she came roaring thru.

 

[EddieWalker]

Still too much scatter in the models to know where it will go long term, but it seems likely it will cruise over or to the north of Cuba. Where it goes from there, or whether it turns is an unknown. I have seen tracks anywhere from the Gulf area all the way up to NJ, and then some out to sea. In another ~3 days we should have more certainty from the models.

I never look at a single model, but rather the "ensemble" which is the set of different simulations where they take the expected starting conditions (current hurricane position, speed, etc) and they add all sorts of little variations (butterfly effects) and see how those little variations perturb the simulation. So you'll see the main operational model and then a spaghetti of all the little variations from that. Here's an example:

View attachment 520773

The reality is that none of those solutions could be right. It really just gives an idea of the error band of the prediction simulation. But I like looking at that, as it sort of tells me how certain or uncertain we are at this point. I feel certain it will skirt over or near Cuba. But from there, it's still a big unknown.

Sadly, it seems that predicting the path of a hurricane is just about impossible. Or what it will do once it hits land. Kind of like predicting the weather more then a week out.

 

[rekees4300]

Irma now a Category 4 with sustained winds 130 MPH. Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared state of emergency for all of Florida's 67 counties. Scott said that the state would "prepare for the worst and hope for the best" as Irma is expected to hit the state around Friday.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott declares state of emergency ahead of Category 4 Hurricane Irma | Fox News

 

[teg]

I'm heading out to surf fish at the end of next week... I'm pretty darn sure (with my luck) It's going to hit North Carolina coast!!! :hissyfit:

 

[TractorGuy]

I'm heading out to surf fish at the end of next week... I'm pretty darn sure (with my luck) It's going to hit North Carolina coast!!! :hissyfit:

Some gulf storms in the past have reported catches of grouper off the surf.

Hoping it hooks hard and goes back out to sea for all our sakes but tis the season.