Travelover
Elite Member
It is true, you can go as deep as you want in analyzing what a reasonable withdrawal rate is, but most people are totally clueless. So, framing the target around something reasonable and easy to understand makes sense to me........The 4% thing is just a handy rule of thumb. I'm not confident using a rule of thumb to plan my retirement, I use more accurate models.
And any analysis is only as good as the input data. How many anticipated the near depression in 2009 or the runaway inflation in the late 70s /early 80s? Who knows what wars, natural disasters, market crashes or other unexpected stuff waits around the corner? Does back tested market returns really predict future returns? Is a Monte Carlo simulation realistic? I say save and invest keeping the 4% at age 65 as a minimum.