Corona Virus #7

[ultrarunner]

Wow early June... thinking that is the longest duration of any state now.

When SF Shelter in Place for 2 weeks signed on March 17th some of the Docs I work with said this will go on for months but to reduce panic it was rolled out incrementally... much easier to say 2 weeks instead of coming out saying 10 weeks.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

How long do you think we can go before we have to restart the economy regardless of how many die?

Chris

Apparently there is no reason to act like the corona virus is such a big deal. 520,000 Americans die every year due to smoking, and the government is more than happy to tax that habit and take the money to the bank. So, what is the big deal here?

Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1,300 deaths every day. On average, smokers die 10 years earlier than nonsmokers.Nov 28, 2018

Fast Facts | Fact Sheets | Smoking & Tobacco Use | CDCwww.cdc.gov › tobacco › data_statistics ›

 

[IslandTractor]

I don't disagree at all with your points about selection bias, unmatched controls, etc. Those are certainly limitations of the study. But, ask yourself, then, why you didn't perform a better study?

Your answer may be quite revealing. I'm guessing it will be somewhat along the lines of, "I don't have the expertise", or "I don't have access to the needed patient population," or "I don't have the funding to run the study," etc. Quite frankly, I applaud the authors for doing what they could with the data they have. I find casting aspersions from afar detrimental, negative, and not helpful. If you don't think the study was done right, then do it yourself, correct the mistakes, and publish it.

Finally, the study also doesn't claim to be a final say on whether the approach is or is not effective. Quite the opposite, there are many comments along the lines of "Our preliminary results show ...", and "further studies on the combined effect are needed ..."

Again, the study has some serious flaws and shortcomings, but what it does do is provide compelling evidence that there may be targeted approaches that could lead to success.

I understand your comments. Perhaps the main thing that bothers me is how they publicized their work to a frightened global public via YouTube rather than addressing the many methodological issues identified and then focusing on doing a better second generation study. This “jumping the gun” type of approach to medicine has over the years created all sorts of mischief and tragedy. Had they presented their preliminary data to someone like Fauci and asked for research support to do a proper trial then I would feel very differently. As it is I think the guy is just confirming his reputation as a first rate self promoter and second rate clinical scientist. That apparently is exactly how he is thought of by the biomedical community in France.

 

[Wagtail]

Tuesday morning from FORTRESS TASMANIA! All is quiet. The PM (in conjunction with all of the State Premiers/Territory First Ministers) has now put into force no public gatherings of more than two (2) people. We (Australia) are taking the 'long view' and are preparing for, at least, a six (6) month strategy. The financial plan/budget is going to take decades to recover from as we're taking the attitude that this fight has two fronts: a) the virus, and b) the economy.

We're NOT in "lockdown", per se. If you're not in an essential job, stay home and self-isolate. Plan a weekly trip to get your groceries/pharmaceuticals/mail/petrol/etc... and 'make a list' of what you're going to get so that you don't linger.

Tassie recorded our first death yesterday, a woman in her 80's. There are 69 cases in the State. 18 deaths for the entire country as of today.
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Some TBNers may recall that my Aunt is on the cruise ship MS ZAANDAM. She's OK and the ship has now moved through the Panama Canal and is in the Caribbean on their way to Florida.

 

[rswyan]

General Electric Workers Launch Protest, Demand to Make Ventilators - VICE

Walkout ...

 

[rswyan]

Related:

Hospitals Need to Repair Ventilators. Manufacturers Are Making That Impossible - VICE

 

[goeduck]

This Corona lockdown has got me doing things I have not done in years... like making hash browns. It has been probably 10 years.

 

[RSR]

I understand your comments. Perhaps the main thing that bothers me is how they publicized their work to a frightened global public via YouTube rather than addressing the many methodological issues identified and then focusing on doing a better second generation study. This å±*umping the gun type of approach to medicine has over the years created all sorts of mischief and tragedy. Had they presented their preliminary data to someone like Fauci and asked for research support to do a proper trial then I would feel very differently. As it is I think the guy is just confirming his reputation as a first rate self promoter and second rate clinical scientist. That apparently is exactly how he is thought of by the biomedical community in France.

As an academic research scientist, I fully understand the concerns. However, the sad state of the matter is that self-promotion and science go hand-in-hand in today's research climate. If you aren't self-promoting, making strategic connections, etc., your chance for continued research productivity through a steady stream of funding is about zero. I can't count the number of program managers that have told me, "I'm not funding a project/research question based on the scientific merit, I'm funding an individual." That doesn't mean I agree with that approach (I find it very disappointing), just that it's a necessary evil.

I think where part of the backlash comes from is the sheer amount of publicity that was received in the public media, which then outraged everyone else. I'm sure a fair amount of that is jealousy as well. "Why was their study highlighted by news media, and mine not?". I doubt the authors even anticipated the amount of traction they would get from that study. I regularly read peer-reviewed journal articles that are more flawed and more outlandish in their claims than what this study was. That still doesn't mean there isn't useful information that can be gleaned from them. As a scientist, our goal is to find the truth, and move it forward. There can be useful information in very flawed studies. In most cases, scientists reading the articles and doing research in related fields recognize this and can distinguish between claims that are backed up by the data, and those that are speculative.

A level head in response to all research claims (good and/or bad) is needed to move scientific fields forward in a methodical and progressive manner. This is not effectively accomplished by striving to tear down others based on ones perceived views of their flaws. Most scientists realize how small their respective research communities are, and that a respectful, collegial approach is needed by all. If not, as one researcher once told me, "it quickly turns into a circular firing squad." You see those exact behaviors exhibited on this forum. What is this, CoronaVirus thread #7?!?!

 

[aczlan]

Agree. If it turns out that people die because we run out of ventilators, I'd like to see a Congressional investigation of the corporate decision making that resulted in the cancelation of the cheap "good enough" ventilator project. Nothing wrong with profits unless they directly hurt the public health.

Firstly, if the US taxpayer is funding a cheap "good enough" ventilator project, part of the agreement should have been that the government ends up with the blueprints and all the data related to the project no matter what happens with the project and if the company decides not to pursue it, they give up all rights to it.

Aaron Z

 

[ruffdog]

This Corona lockdown has got me doing things I have not done in years... like making hash browns. It has been probably 10 years.
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I'm just like your dogs......that food looks good and I bet it smells even better!