Corona Virus #7

[MGH PA]

Exactly. No physician ever as said that quarantine for 30 days is enough to end this pandemic. Quarantine now and reassess as more data comes in. I'll be stunned if Fauci agrees with stopping the current recommendations to stay at home by the end of April. I'm guessing we will be in this mode for at least May and possibly to mid summer. You can't stop isolation just because we've gotten over the peak. It will be many weeks after that before it is safe to let up. I'd say for example that there is no chance that kids will finish this school year except at home.

All parents should be planning on school not returning anywhere in the U.S. for the rest of the year.

 

[oldballs]

Thanks to you who contribute to this thread. It helps my day to read the various thoughts and input from the TBN group. And, BTW, I have a friend sailor who now is ashore on Guam. She says that it is the first time in weeks that she has slept on a "soft" bed.

Cheers,
Mike

 

[rswyan]

Exactly. No physician ever as said that quarantine for 30 days is enough to end this pandemic. Quarantine now and reassess as more data comes in. I'll be stunned if Fauci agrees with stopping the current recommendations to stay at home by the end of April. I'm guessing we will be in this mode for at least May and possibly to mid summer. You can't stop isolation just because we've gotten over the peak. It will be many weeks after that before it is safe to let up.

Yup, I'd agree ... particularly if public health officials - rather than politicians - are heeded and get their say.

Seems to me that the "novel" aspect of this virus, and the lack of any historical experience with it specifically, may figure into that.

Particularly what the susceptibility to reinfection is, and whether, or to what degree, there is developed immunity.

I'd say for example that there is no chance that kids will finish this school year except at home.

Seems rather likely.

 

[rswyan]

I am also of two minds about this situation. My guess is that the Top Brass was more concerned about bad PR for the White House than they were about the welfare of the Sailors. I an guessing the Captain had multiple pleas that went unanswered. He will have to live with the consequences of his actions, the Top Brass will have to live with theirs.

Good points ... :thumbsup:

 

[rswyan]

Probably true but in that case we need a new XO too!

Probably not the first time, nor likely the last.

 

[k0ua]

Yes. And while I'm of two minds regarding the removal of the Captain, seeing that he allowed his crew to mass like this during an epidemic makes me lean towards approving of his departure. That is exactly what you don't want the crew doing. The Navy has protocols for dealing with epidemics on board and they have public health officers in addition to medical/surgical clinicians. As the Captain noted in his leaked memo, "we are not at war". There is no reason to allow large groups like this to form. Isolate bunkmates together. Let them come to the mess two or three times a day in small groups or even better deliver meals to their cabins. I gather they are in port so there would be many sailors who don't have regular duties to perform. Institute mask wearing (note that none of the sailors in the video are wearing masks). Lots of simple things to do that could limit but not stop spread of the virus. Navy deals with this sort of thing regularly during flu season etc so this isn't their first dance.

I also think the Captain somewhat over called the threat to his crew. There are probably almost no sailors on board over the age of sixty. Probably 90% are less than 35 years old. Almost no one has serious chronic disease. In other words this Navy crew is at very very low risk of serious illness. Certainly way lower than any member of the nursing or medical staff in a NYC hospital. Yes, with 4000+ individuals on board and even a 0.1% mortality rate for healthy sailors, there could end up being a handful of deaths. However, sending 4000 sailors to shore with 5% already infected, it wouldn't take long to overwhelm Guam's limited medical resources so it isn't clear that the sailors would be any better off ashore. Additionally, as most estimates figure somewhere between 30-60% of the world's population will eventually be infected with this virus, it's not like shutting down the carrier is going to prevent many sailors from eventually being infected anyway.

I appreciate that the Captain is loyal to his crew but the logic that led him to write that memo is flawed. Sending the memo to anyone but his immediate superior was also a mistake. Sad to lose a good officer like this but it happens all the time in the Navy when **** happens on their watch. Certainly similar to the principle that virtually every Captain whose ship goes aground, almost regardless of reason, will be relieved of command too.

Something we are in agreement on. ^

 

[aczlan]

OH... So saving the lives of so many crew members was an emotional response?

Focusing actions that would save the lives of the crew members would have included issuing orders prohibiting such gatherings...

Yes. And while I'm of two minds regarding the removal of the Captain, seeing that he allowed his crew to mass like this during an epidemic makes me lean towards approving of his departure. That is exactly what you don't want the crew doing. The Navy has protocols for dealing with epidemics on board and they have public health officers in addition to medical/surgical clinicians. As the Captain noted in his leaked memo, "we are not at war". There is no reason to allow large groups like this to form. Isolate bunkmates together. Let them come to the mess two or three times a day in small groups or even better deliver meals to their cabins. I gather they are in port so there would be many sailors who don't have regular duties to perform. Institute mask wearing (note that none of the sailors in the video are wearing masks). Lots of simple things to do that could limit but not stop spread of the virus. Navy deals with this sort of thing regularly during flu season etc so this isn't their first dance.

I also think the Captain somewhat over called the threat to his crew. There are probably almost no sailors on board over the age of sixty. Probably 90% are less than 35 years old. Almost no one has serious chronic disease. In other words this Navy crew is at very very low risk of serious illness. Certainly way lower than any member of the nursing or medical staff in a NYC hospital. Yes, with 4000+ individuals on board and even a 0.1% mortality rate for healthy sailors, there could end up being a handful of deaths. However, sending 4000 sailors to shore with 5% already infected, it wouldn't take long to overwhelm Guam's limited medical resources so it isn't clear that the sailors would be any better off ashore. Additionally, as most estimates figure somewhere between 30-60% of the world's population will eventually be infected with this virus, it's not like shutting down the carrier is going to prevent many sailors from eventually being infected anyway.

I appreciate that the Captain is loyal to his crew but the logic that led him to write that memo is flawed. Sending the memo to anyone but his immediate superior was also a mistake. Sad to lose a good officer like this but it happens all the time in the Navy when **** happens on their watch. Certainly similar to the principle that virtually every Captain whose ship goes aground, almost regardless of reason, will be relieved of command too.

Exactly, if he was concerned that his superiors were not acting as they should, he should have sent a letter to the Congressional committee that has oversight over the armed forces, not released the letter to the press (and announced to the whole world) that in the eyes of her Captain, the US carrier will be out of commission for the next few weeks.

Doing what he did raises the risk of somebody attacking the carrier, or somebody doing something that they would otherwise expect retaliation from the carrier strike group for doing.

Aaron Z

 

[radios1]

did anyone say Thank You China for the Coronavirus yet?..

 

[DerbyRunner]

It is tragic that this virus has finally made its inroads into the homeless population. Many of whom have few defenses or resources to apply against it. This could explode in places like California.

Coronavirus spreads in Los Angeles''' homeless community

 

[k0ua]

did anyone say Thank You China for the Coronavirus yet?..

I have heard a couple thank the Chinese for their "transparency and quick action" Of course they are morons, but that is beside the point.