Y'all Been Checkin' Lumber Prices?

[MoKelly]

5.4% inflation from June 2021. A country just dosen't put that genie back in the bottle in a way that does not cause ripple effects. The cheap money is like a drug and the dealer has not idea how to wean the addict off their product.

Sometimes this bitcoin concept of not tying value to central banks policy is very appealing.

Yep. Inflation coupled with shortages and a lack of workforce due to handouts is a bad situation.

MoKelly

 

[lman]

Yep. Inflation coupled with shortages and a lack of workforce due to handouts is a bad situation.

MoKelly

And it sounds like they're going to continue to print money to pass out to people that don't want to work. That's a recipe for continuing inflation.

 

[Diggin It]

LUMBERCommodity $600.00 -85.00 -12.41% 03:18:00 PM

52 week low and below what it was when this thread was started.

Not seeing it in store prices yet though.

 

[MoKelly]

LUMBERCommodity $600.00 -85.00 -12.41% 03:18:00 PM

52 week low and below what it was when this thread was started.

Not seeing it in store prices yet though.

Interesting. Are these commodity markets simply trading paper or are they committed to future deliveries at the states prices? How far out are the futures contracts?

It doesn’t seem sustainable to be buying at 52 week lows and selling at 52 week highs?

MoKelly

 

[Jstpssng]

What The Rise And Fall Of Lumber Prices Tell Us About The Pandemic Economy

Lumber prices soared during the pandemic, sparking inflation fears. Just as quickly, prices then dropped, but that's not the end of the story.

www.npr.org

 

[MoKelly]

What The Rise And Fall Of Lumber Prices Tell Us About The Pandemic Economy

Lumber prices soared during the pandemic, sparking inflation fears. Just as quickly, prices then dropped, but that's not the end of the story.

www.npr.org

Have you seen meaningfully lower lumber prices in your area? I have not in my area.

Hopefully, it’s coming.

MoKelly

 

[quicksandfarmer]

Interesting. Are these commodity markets simply trading paper or are they committed to future deliveries at the states prices? How far out are the futures contracts?

It doesn’t seem sustainable to be buying at 52 week lows and selling at 52 week highs?

MoKelly

They very much are committed to future deliveries. The contracts are between people who have a known future need for lumber -- homebuilders mostly -- and people who have a known future production of lumber -- mills.

Contracts go out every two months for a year. So right now you can buy lumber for delivery in July 2021, September '21, November '21, January '22, March '22, May '22 and July '22.

Current prices are at: LB00 | Random Length Lumber Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch

 

[MoKelly]

They very much are committed to future deliveries. The contracts are between people who have a known future need for lumber -- homebuilders mostly -- and people who have a known future production of lumber -- mills.

Contracts go out every two months for a year. So right now you can buy lumber for delivery in July 2021, September '21, November '21, January '22, March '22, May '22 and July '22.

Current prices are at: LB00 | Random Length Lumber Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch

Thanks. I guess the big retailers also use futures rather than buying spot.
MoKelly

 

[bcp]

Some prices here have dropped from triple "normal" to double "normal."

Bruce

 

[quicksandfarmer]

Thanks. I guess the big retailers also use futures rather than buying spot.
MoKelly

Stores like Home Depot and Lowes mostly sell from inventory and can adjust prices based on what they paid. Lumber yards who deal with builders have to guarantee prices out into the future and I could see them wanting to lock in prices using futures.

 

[Diggin It]

As of this morning, Lowes:

2 x 6 x 12 SPF $16.98

2 x 8 x 12 SYP $14.38

4 x 4 x 10 PT $15.98

2 x 8 x 12 PT $17.98

 

[bcp]

Lowes 2x6x12 PT still $24 here.

Bruce

 

[mred2]

4x4x8 PT today at Lowes, listed at $8.57, It was $11.57 last week.

 

[Midniteoyl]

4x4x8 PT today at Lowes, listed at $8.57, It was $11.57 last week.

$9.09 here

 

[PILOON]

^^^ I can vouch for it being less dry. Downright wet in some cases.

Yeah, my take is they dunk green wood in a bath of treatment while sap is still in it in order to save on treatment juice.
Real quality treated is done with dry wood and use a vacuum process.
Your first saw cut confirms what method they use.
Of course you have to understand there are different grades or classes of treated wood.
I know that one grade is 'direct contact' and there also is a 'marine grade'.
You gets what U pay for.

 

[PILOON]

maybe when the prices go down your insurance rate will go down ....maybe...

LOL, yeah, I bet!

Still believe in Santa?

Next will be taxes as they base evaluations on sold properties for 'fair evaluation'.
They'll keep the same rate but that'll be based on the new evaluations.

 

[goeduck]

Yeah, my take is they dunk green wood in a bath of treatment while sap is still in it in order to save on treatment juice.
Real quality treated is done with dry wood and use a vacuum process.
Your first saw cut confirms what method they use.
Of course you have to understand there are different grades or classes of treated wood.
I know that one grade is 'direct contact' and there also is a 'marine grade'.
You gets what U pay for.

I had to buy some marine grade 4x12 for my dock float. Expensive stuff and (if you do it right) you have them precut the length and predrill any holes you need. That treatment needs to get everywhere salt water will get. Otherwise it rots from the inside out. I waited like a month for a custom piece.

 

[mwemaxxowner]

Yeah, my take is they dunk green wood in a bath of treatment while sap is still in it in order to save on treatment juice.
Real quality treated is done with dry wood and use a vacuum process.
Your first saw cut confirms what method they use.
Of course you have to understand there are different grades or classes of treated wood.
I know that one grade is 'direct contact' and there also is a 'marine grade'.
You gets what U pay for.

I work for a treating plant. Yes, we have ground contact, and above ground. The difference is the chemicals used, but also the strength of the mix when it is treated and also the treatment process itself (how long it's put under pressure mainly, to control how much chemical is injected into it).

We have CAC treatment, MCA, and Ecolife. Ground contact is usually MCA or CAC, and above ground is usually Eco.

The lumber gets run into a cylinder, has a vacuum drawn on it, the vacuum is held for a specific amount of time, then the valves are opened and the chemical rushes in, fills the cylinder, then it is put under pressure, and then the pressure is held for a certain amount of time. The type of lumber and type of treatment dictate how long each step is and what psi we shoot for.

 

[Diggin It]

LUMBERCommodity $536.00 +46.00 +9.39% 7/16/2021

And that's up from yesterday.

When will the drop show in store prices?

 

[5030]

Just pulled some .40 retention fence posts from a defunct cattle pasture that I'm converting to hay production that have been in the ground for over 10 years and they look as good as when I pounded them in.

I'll wind up with at least 100 of them that I'll give away....hint