More nuggets from March 2021
Skimming though it, would one conclude the sinking of the east coast is contributing to sea level rise MUCH more than melting glaciers? Battery Park is sinking over 3mm per year and sea levels are rising .7mm per year in the same location. Maybe we should be pumping sea water into the ground? LOL
The absolute and relative rates of rise of the sea level are computed for the New York City area by coupling global positioning system records of the …
www.sciencedirect.com
The relative sea-level rate of rise (SLR), from tide gauge records, is -2.851 mm/yr. at Battery Park and it is -4.076 mm/yr. in the shorter tide gauge record of Sandy Hook. The relative sea-level acceleration is about +0.008 mm/yr² in Battery Park.
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The most likely subsidence from GPS time series is about -2.151 mm/yr. at Battery Park and it is -3.076 mm/yr. in Sandy Hook.
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The most likely absolute SLR is therefore about 0.7 mm/yr. in Battery Park and it is 1.0 mm/yr. in Sandy Hook.
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Thus, in the New York City area, the likely absolute SLR is about 0.7 to 1.0 mm/yr., the likely relative sea-level acceleration is about +0.008 mm/yr², the likely subsidence is about -2.151 to -3.076 mm/yr., and the likely relative SLR is about -2.851 to -4.076 mm/yr.
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As the relative SLR, that is the result of the land and sea components, has negligible acceleration in the long-term-trend tide gauge at Battery Park, this is an indication that both land subsidence, and absolute sea-level rise, have been stable over the period of observation.
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This result is confirmed by the 32 other long term trend stations along the East Coast of North America in addition to Battery Park. The average relative rate of rise is 2.22 mm/yr. subjected to a small, positive acceleration of +0.0027 mm/yr2.
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Differentiating in between Canadian and US stations, the average relative rate of rise of the 11 stations in Canada is 0.61 mm/yr. subjected to a negative acceleration of -0.0133 mm/yr2 while the average relative rate of rise of the 22 stations of the US is 3.02 mm/yr. subjected to a positive acceleration of 0.0108 mm/yr2.
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Excessive groundwater withdrawal-induced subsidence that is much stronger for the East coast of the US than Canada, is likely responsible for most of the difference, with different circulations patterns and other phenomena accounting for the rest.
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It may be concluded that the absolute SLR by 2050 in the Manhattan area will be likely 30 mm, and the SLR by 2100 likely 80 mm. The relative SLR by 2050 in the Manhattan area will be likely 85 mm, and the SLR by 2100 likely 228 mm, for the overwhelming subsidence contribution.
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Ocean and coastal management should be based on proven sea level data and not on speculations by unvalidated models.
