Material costs rising- what would you buy now to hedge inflation

[Root Cause]

So, I was supposed to build a house this year. I just finished phase one (well, septic, roads, and drainage) and am ready to start the actual build.
With gas prices, inflation, supply-chain issues etc. it looks like the worst time in history to build something.
I just read that Shanghai has been in total lockdown and this will disrupt the supply chain for many items including copper.

So that's the background and I am thinking about going out today and buying
1500 ft. 14/2,
250 f.t 14/3 and
250 ft.12/2 wire just because it takes up little space and doubt it will ever come down in price in the next 18 months.

Anyone have other thoughts or ideas? I know others here have more experience with home building.

 

[JJT]

I run 12/2 for almost all 120v circuits. The only 14/2/3 I have is for light circuits.

I think now is a good time to build, I don't see this getting any better anytime soon.

 

[Snobdds]

My sister and her new husband just got married. They want to build a house in Denver. She was hell bent on doing it, so I knew logic was not going to convince her otherwise.

She got a few quotes and they were coming out to over $300/sq feet. That was just using contractor grade stuff. It was over 500/Sq feet for her upgrades.

She got a quick reality check.

I don't think you could pay me to build now.

 

[newbury]

CAREFULLY examine all needs for large appliances, I'm waiting for them to skyrocket. Most are produced overseas, and the ones that are not follow the pricing.
Good luck.

 

[rScotty]

So, I was supposed to build a house this year. I just finished phase one (well, septic, roads, and drainage) and am ready to start the actual build.
With gas prices, inflation, supply-chain issues etc. it looks like the worst time in history to build something.
I just read that Shanghai has been in total lockdown and this will disrupt the supply chain for many items including copper.

So that's the background and I am thinking about going out today and buying
1500 ft. 14/2,
250 f.t 14/3 and
250 ft.12/2 wire just because it takes up little space and doubt it will ever come down in price in the next 18 months.

Anyone have other thoughts or ideas? I know others here have more experience with home building.

First of all, price is what it is. I do buy in bulk and in advance but it is more for convenience than savings. The problem being that when uou end up not needing a few hundred feet of wire - and you will - there go your savings. But saving extra trips to town is a huge benefits

In my opinion there is no such thing as a bad time to build something.

You will need good tools. Probably there is more to be saved buying those. For instance a good 12" table saw (look for a good used Delta or similar) and a dual bevel compound anging miter saw, several portable drills, screw guns, fasteners, and one plug in 1/2" milwaukee with an oversize key chuck, and hole saws. Plus a nice QUIET air compressor with 100 feet of hose & some air tools. A circular saw. If you do your own plumbing and electric add a power hacksaw. I like a router too, and a dado for the table saw.
Sawhorses, lots of clamps, and a work bench - make that two benches - with a good heavy vise for metal and a clamping system for wood.

I'd reverse the 14/2 and 12/2 quantities. Anywhere you can use 14/2 you can use 12/2 EXCEPT in some lighting circuit only push-in connectors. Even in those, you can use 12/2 and have a better quality job if you use the screw connections. The inspector will be happier too.
Get a set of wire strippers. There's only one good one....

For all the same reasons I use 12/3, not 14/3.
rScotty

 

[Root Cause]

First of all, price is what it is. I do buy in bulk and in advance but it is more for convenience than savings. The problem being that when uou end up not needing a few hundred feet of wire - and you will - there go your savings. But saving extra trips to town is a huge benefits

In my opinion there is no such thing as a bad time to build something.

You will need good tools. Probably there is more to be saved buying those. For instance a good 12" table saw (look for a good used Delta or similar) and a dual bevel compound anging miter saw, several portable drills, screw guns, fasteners, and one plug in 1/2" milwaukee with an oversize key chuck, and hole saws. Plus a nice QUIET air compressor with 100 feet of hose & some air tools. A circular saw. If you do your own plumbing and electric add a power hacksaw. I like a router too, and a dado for the table saw.
Sawhorses, lots of clamps, and a work bench - make that two benches - with a good heavy vise for metal and a clamping system for wood.

I'd reverse the 14/2 and 12/2 quantities. Anywhere you can use 14/2 you can use 12/2 EXCEPT in some lighting circuit only push-in connectors. Even in those, you can use 12/2 and have a better quality job if you use the screw connections. The inspector will be happier too.
Get a set of wire strippers. There's only one good one....

For all the same reasons I use 12/3, not 14/3.
rScotty

I have all the tools mentioned except a framing nail gun.
I will be moving my wood shop to 1200 sq ft building in coming weeks. I have RV inside with septic and water now.

Yep, it is a 2-hour round trip to the store.

I have a cheap set of strippers, what is the only 'good' one?

I am also concerned about appliances but I don't know where I would store them unless I want to turn the existing dining room into a storage facility.

 

[2manyrocks]

If you are going to need electrical wire in the foreseeable future, I'd buy now as price protection and to be sure I had it. If you can't get it, that means holding up interior wall finishing, etc. Also, 12 is what I'd lean towards over 14 if it were my property.

I was able to order wire from Lowes and had it delivered without any extra charge in 2020 or 2021. Can't remember. You might check if they still do that.

 

[MAX-24-Dean]

First of all, price is what it is. I do buy in bulk and in advance but it is more for convenience than savings. The problem being that when uou end up not needing a few hundred feet of wire - and you will - there go your savings.

I'd reverse the 14/2 and 12/2 quantities. Anywhere you can use 14/2 you can use 12/2 EXCEPT in some lighting circuit only push-in connectors. Even in those, you can use 12/2 and have a better quality job if you use the screw connections. The inspector will be happier too.
Get a set of wire strippers. There's only one good one....

For all the same reasons I use 12/3, not 14/3.
rScotty

Agree with your post, 12/2 instead of 14/2. and 12/3 instead of 14/3.

JJT said,
"I run 12/2 for almost all 120v circuits. The only 14/2/3 I have is for light circuits.

I think now is a good time to build, I don't see this getting any better anytime soon."

I also only used 14 guage wire for lighting circuits. everything else 12 guage.

 

[NoTrespassing]

I would wait for the coming recession if possible. Most are predicting it will happen in the fall of 2023 or soon after. Prices will be depressed. My wife wants to build but we're going to wait. If our jobs don't disappear in the meantime, we'll be able to pay cash for most of it.

 

[jaxs]

What the effect will be remains to be seen but there has to be an extraordinarily high demand for new and pre-owned homes in N. Central Tx when all these people tire of living in travel trailers. I haven't been able to find stats but I estimate rv parking space has increased 20 fold over the last 3 years and land is being developed for more as we speak. If history taught us anything about rising prices it is they rarely go back to where they began. I believe $5+ fuel and $300 sq ft homes are here to stay. Minimum wage is presently $7.25 and there has been no talk about raising it by $1,$5 or anything else other than more than double at $15. Quartly "stemless"checks coupled with $15 wages can sustain rental rates for housing that cost $300 per sq ft to build. One of our granddaughters was putting off building and we incouraged her to proceed. We used the majority of grandkids' inheratance to buy land we feel is a good investment,deeded a portion to her and the remainder to other kids as co-owners. Apprasial for new home with clear land rolled in got lower intrest rate on her loan and most important,avoids paying stinking mortage insurance. All that sounds rosy unless Grandmaw and Grandpaw outlive their remaining savings and grandkids wind up having to support them.

 

[NoTrespassing]

I disagree, in my opinion 5$ gasoline is not here to stay. History has taught me, prices rise and fall. Recession will take prices down as it kills jobs. The CEO GM thought high gas prices were here to stay back in 2008 but in 2009 they dropped dramatically.

2007-2009 Recession (from Wikipedia)

The Great Recession had a significant economic and political impact on the United States. While the recession technically lasted from December 2007 – June 2009 (the nominal GDP trough), many important economic variables did not regain pre-recession (November or Q4 2007) levels until 2011–2016. For example, real GDP fell $650 billion (4.3%) and did not recover its $15 trillion pre-recession level until Q3 2011.[103] Household net worth, which reflects the value of both stock markets and housing prices, fell $11.5 trillion (17.3%) and did not regain its pre-recession level of $66.4 trillion until Q3 2012.[104] The number of persons with jobs (total non-farm payrolls) fell 8.6 million (6.2%) and did not regain the pre-recession level of 138.3 million until May 2014.[105] The unemployment rate peaked at 10.0% in October 2009 and did not return to its pre-recession level of 4.7% until May 2016.

 

[3Ts]

I agree with the 12g wire instead of the 14g and allows for a 20 amp circuit. Also, if you are going to run 3 way circuits, plan to use 4 wire (+ ground) for those. It can be done with 3 wire, but more flexibility in the lights if you use 4 wire.

If you're concerned about copper being available, also get PEX fittings. Definitely use PEX piping and use the rings that have the squeeze bump on the side. That way it's one tool for all the different sizes. I've used both the PEX coils and the sticks, sticks are easier to handle, but the coils make for an uninterrupted run. (Very hard to uncoil the PEX from the roll)

 

[4570Man]

I disagree, in my opinion 5$ gasoline is not here to stay. History has taught me, prices rise and fall. Recession will take prices down as it kills jobs. The CEO GM thought high gas prices were here to stay back in 2008 but in 2009 they dropped dramatically.

2007-2009 Recession (from Wikipedia)

The Great Recession had a significant economic and political impact on the United States. While the recession technically lasted from December 2007 – June 2009 (the nominal GDP trough), many important economic variables did not regain pre-recession (November or Q4 2007) levels until 2011–2016. For example, real GDP fell $650 billion (4.3%) and did not recover its $15 trillion pre-recession level until Q3 2011.[103] Household net worth, which reflects the value of both stock markets and housing prices, fell $11.5 trillion (17.3%) and did not regain its pre-recession level of $66.4 trillion until Q3 2012.[104] The number of persons with jobs (total non-farm payrolls) fell 8.6 million (6.2%) and did not regain the pre-recession level of 138.3 million until May 2014.[105] The unemployment rate peaked at 10.0% in October 2009 and did not return to its pre-recession level of 4.7% until May 2016.

Building here is going as strong as it ever has. And inflation isn’t going to reverse. If you’re waiting for prices to drop it could take a while.

 

[4570Man]

I agree with the 12g wire instead of the 14g and allows for a 20 amp circuit. Also, if you are going to run 3 way circuits, plan to use 4 wire (+ ground) for those. It can be done with 3 wire, but more flexibility in the lights if you use 4 wire.

If you're concerned about copper being available, also get PEX fittings. Definitely use PEX piping and use the rings that have the squeeze bump on the side. That way it's one tool for all the different sizes. I've used both the PEX coils and the sticks, sticks are easier to handle, but the coils make for an uninterrupted run. (Very hard to uncoil the PEX from the roll)

If it’s warm outside the coiled pex isn’t horrible but I agree the sticks are easier to use. In theory the expansion pex is the superior product but it cost nearly twice as much so I’d probably just use the crimp pex.

 

[4570Man]

Agree with your post, 12/2 instead of 14/2. and 12/3 instead of 14/3.

JJT said,
"I run 12/2 for almost all 120v circuits. The only 14/2/3 I have is for light circuits.

I think now is a good time to build, I don't see this getting any better anytime soon."

I also only used 14 guage wire for lighting circuits. everything else 12 guage.

Aside from the code required kitchen and bathroom 12 gauge circuits I like to have the garage outlets and any other exterior outlets 12 gauge. But for lighting circuits and any other circuits that’s unlikely to ever see power tool use I see no point to spend more money and effort to use 12 gauge.

 

[rScotty]

I have all the tools mentioned except a framing nail gun.
I will be moving my wood shop to 1200 sq ft building in coming weeks. I have RV inside with septic and water now.

Yep, it is a 2-hour round trip to the store.

I have a cheap set of strippers, what is the only 'good' one?

I am also concerned about appliances but I don't know where I would store them unless I want to turn the existing dining room into a storage facility.

You sound like you are ahead of the game. Here's some hints, maybe one will enable you to save serious money.

You probably know someone who does remodels. My friend does only high end remodels, and he often gets jobs putting in complete kitchens. Cabinets, appliances and all. The key that makes remodels so lucerative is something that every builder knows: that everything is made in a very short list of standard dimensions. Many homeowners themselves don't know that, but builders know. And it is true of windows and doors as well as cabinets and appliances. Well, not so much windows, but true of doors.

Every day my friend is doing remodels for people with too much money and too little time. It makes him crazy. He was excited that I would reuse things and really got into the spirit of it. Every month he is taking out old varnished cherry cabinets and shiny stainless style appliances to be replaced with smooth surface painted "modern" cabinets and the new style black-finished stainless appliances. Not ony that, but he has to pay to junk the stuff. I finally had to cry, "enough".

Exterior doors are standard dimensions. So are many interior ones. I like the old carved mahogany doors with cut glass & brass hardware. Those I paid $50 each for & figured out how to varnish.

I could go on and on. Since you have a shop, you already know how to design around what you get. Don't forget to design in a compactor and a stone utility sink in the utility room. Your kitchen and half the built-ins could be nearly compete for no cost before you even start building.
By designing your house to standard dimensions it will all fit. I bet you can save half the cost.

Just rewired our barn and used a few thousand feet of 30 year old 12/2 to 10/3 from a 30 year remodel on an office warehouse. I just popped it off the studs and rolled it up. Some random lengths, so what? I use that as an excuse for another outlet box. BTW, that old but still newish wire is more flexible, better rubber insulation, and the conductor obviously has higher copper content than anything available in box stores. The conductor looks and bends more like copper than today's brass 12/2 wire.

Oh, the wire strippers. Klein makes them. $35 on Amazon. I used cheapies for 50years. These are exquisite. They do not cut or crimp. Purely strippers.

Luck, rScotty

 

[NoTrespassing]

Building here is going as strong as it ever has. And inflation isn’t going to reverse. If you’re waiting for prices to drop it could take a while.

I definitely agree, it could take awhile, 1 to 2 1/2 years. TN and other places are booming right now. For us it makes sense to wait. We have a house to live in and will be building on the same property someday if all goes well.

My neighbor built his house in 2005. Material prices had risen dramatically because of a hurricane, I believe it was Wilma but I'm not sure. He was already committed to building and is still paying for it monthly on his mortgage. If he were able to wait 6 months or so he could have saved a large percentage on material costs and a huge amount on his mortgage over the years.

 

[newbury]

I have all the tools mentioned except a framing nail gun.
I will be moving my wood shop to 1200 sq ft building in coming weeks. I have RV inside with septic and water now.

Yep, it is a 2-hour round trip to the store.

I have a cheap set of strippers, what is the only 'good' one?

I am also concerned about appliances but I don't know where I would store them unless I want to turn the existing dining room into a storage facility.

Many people make the mistake IMHO of building the house first, then the storage. Build some small storage first or buy a shipping container for more secure storage. Then fill it. People have been predicting another great recession "within 6 months" since 2019.
With the rise of the $15/hr wage things are all messed up.

 

[Snobdds]

You probably know someone who does remodels. My friend does only high end remodels, and he often gets jobs putting in complete kitchens. Cabinets, appliances and all. The key that makes remodels so lucerative is something that every builder knows: that everything is made in a very short list of standard dimensions. Many homeowners themselves don't know that, but builders know. And it is true of windows and doors as well as cabinets and appliances. Well, not so much windows, but true of doors.

Every day my friend is doing remodels for people with too much money and too little time. It makes him crazy. He was excited that I would reuse things and really got into the spirit of it. Every month he is taking out old varnished cherry cabinets and shiny stainless style appliances to be replaced with smooth surface painted "modern" cabinets and the new style black-finished stainless appliances. Not ony that, but he has to pay to junk the stuff. I finally had to cry, "enough".

You built up this big pitch about saving money, but you forgot to say where the money savings is here...Sizing is of little consequence when building or remodeling.

Contractors make money on getting in and getting out and on to the next one.

 

[dodge man]

I would recommend not playing the commodity game. I wouldn’t buy things because you think the price will go up, I would only buy stuff that would be hard to get. How would you feel if you bought a bunch of stuff and the price goes down?