New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[rScotty]

Hens are coming home to roost. All a predictable outcome of easy monetary policy and spending more money in the past several years, than in our entire history prior to. Interesting times

Yes it is. Compared with the economy of the last 25 years, this one is not as good. Compared with the economy of the last 50, this one still looks remarkably good. We are still cruising down easy street.

I will say that the amount of negativity in the midst of so much wealth and opportunity puzzles me.
I wonder where that came from, and why it is so popular?

rScotty

 

[TN8Man]

Yes it is. Compared with the economy of the last 25 years, this one is not as good. Compared with the economy of the last 50, this one still looks remarkably good. We are still cruising down easy street.

I will say that the amount of negativity in the midst of so much wealth and opportunity puzzles me.
I wonder where that came from, and why it is so popular?

rScotty

Just comparing the economy from 3 years ago is a stark decline with a trajectory towards a crisis.

 

[2manyrocks]

Now let me get this straight..... This guy was using a leaf blower to force air across mulch debris on the tractor while the machine it was still hot, it caught fire, and he blames the emissions system?
Does something seem wrong with that picture to you?

rScotty

There is a tremendous amount of debris generated during the mulching process. Some of it will avoidably end up inside the track loader. He did the best anyone could do by stopping periodically to blow it out, but the flaw here is that the emissions system itself runs hotter than a unit without any emissions equipment increasing the risk of fire. If he didn't blow it out, the debris would still have been there. He also said he didn't know if it was the debris or a hydraulic leak or a fuel leak that actually caused the fire. The guy isn't slack in his work or in maintaining his equipment. He's 65 and has been operating equipment for a very long time. With this happening to his equipment, I don't believe I would fare any better if I were in the same situation.

 

[Hay Dude]

Yes it is. Compared with the economy of the last 25 years, this one is not as good. Compared with the economy of the last 50, this one still looks remarkably good. We are still cruising down easy street.

I will say that the amount of negativity in the midst of so much wealth and opportunity puzzles me.
I wonder where that came from, and why it is so popular?

rScotty

I’m just guessing here, but I would say the following could be reasons for negativity:

1. Imminent danger of kinetic war between the 3 world’s superpowers.
2. 40 year record high inflation
3. Fastest increase in interest rates in 40 years
4. Lowest labor participation rates in decades
5. Decreases in human lifespan
6. Extremely high energy prices
7. Decreased standards of living
8. Increased income gaps between rich and poor
9. Bank failures
10. Opioid deaths

There’s more, but I think those are all negative indicators.

 

[Hay Dude]

There is a tremendous amount of debris generated during the mulching process. Some of it will avoidably end up inside the track loader. He did the best anyone could do by stopping periodically to blow it out, but the flaw here is that the emissions system itself runs hotter than a unit without any emissions equipment increasing the risk of fire. If he didn't blow it out, the debris would still have been there. He also said he didn't know if it was the debris or a hydraulic leak or a fuel leak that actually caused the fire. The guy isn't slack in his work or in maintaining his equipment. He's 65 and has been operating equipment for a very long time. With this happening to his equipment, I don't believe I would fare any better if I were in the same situation.

No need to explain. This is a very real concern and it has been happening for a while. A hot catalytic converter a hot DPF can cause fire.

We purposely park hot equipment off the grass whenever possible. I do not feel comfortable in emissions equipped skid steer loaders.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

I’m just guessing here, but I would say the following could be reasons for negativity:

1. Imminent danger of kinetic war between the 3 world’s superpowers.
2. 40 year record high inflation
3. Fastest increase in interest rates in 40 years
4. Lowest labor participation rates in decades
5. Decreases in human lifespan
6. Extremely high energy prices
7. Decreased standards of living
8. Increased income gaps between rich and poor
9. Bank failures
10. Opioid deaths

There’s more, but I think those are all negative indicators.

It’s coming… those who doubt will see that reality does catch up

 

[rScotty]

Just comparing the economy from 3 years ago is a stark decline with a trajectory towards a crisis.

Three years is what I would call "short term".

 

[2manyrocks]

Yes it is. Compared with the economy of the last 25 years, this one is not as good. Compared with the economy of the last 50, this one still looks remarkably good. We are still cruising down easy street.

I will say that the amount of negativity in the midst of so much wealth and opportunity puzzles me.
I wonder where that came from, and why it is so popular?

rScotty

It's not popular per se, but it's the topic of discussion because if you look at historical charts, the levels of deficit, spending, and money supply growth since 2020 appear pretty extreme. Eggs that were .69 a carton are now $2.12. Homes that were $250k are now pushing $500k. Cars...tractors....all much more expensive in a very short time span.

Those who might be able to absorb price increases like these from savings can do so for a while, but if the rate of price increases don't slow, whoever it was that brought up the issue of trend was exactly right to bring it up.

 

[Hay Dude]

Three years is what I would call "short term".

I admire your optimism for humankind. I really do. I, too have to be optimistic just to keep going in my profession year to year.
However, I think you may be soon shouting your optimism into an empty warehouse.

These are fascinating times. One marvels at the technology. However, the human component is suffering because of the spectacular failures at the leadership level.
I’ve never seen people so determined to screw up our very existence and I am at the same time mortified by the people who continue to support them.

 

[rScotty]

No need to explain. This is a very real concern and it has been happening for a while. A hot catalytic converter a hot DPF can cause fire.

We purposely park hot equipment off the grass whenever possible. I do not feel comfortable in emissions equipped skid steer loaders.

I agree with both of those. We always parked hot equipment on bare ground or gravel.... always have done that even back in the days before we had regenerative emissions equipment. Mufflers have always been hot.
Hmmm.... I wonder if the skid steer went into regen, so he picked up a leaf blower to blow it off while it was doing a running regen.
Naw....couldn't be..... could it?

 

[rScotty]

I admire your optimism for humankind. I really do. I, too have to be optimistic just to keep going in my profession year to year.
However, I think you may be soon shouting your optimism into an empty warehouse.

These are fascinating times. One marvels at the technology. However, the human component is suffering because of the spectacular failures at the leadership level.
I’ve never seen people so determined to screw up our very existence and I am at the same time mortified by the people who continue to support them.

It's not just optimism, it's just that short term trends are so easy to work with. Easy to see, to change, and to see results. The downside to that is that you have short term downturns oscillating with short term upturns.... It can make a person dizzy and pessimistic.

I like to focus on the longer term. And it looks pretty good to me. Things world-wide are healthier, wealthier, and more free than ever before in mankind's history. We are exploring outer space and the bottom of the ocean. Fascination exists at every level.
And for tractors and equipment, nobody is forcing me to buy new; I can fix old things to my heart's content.

For proof of how all this is working in the good old USA, just take a look at our borders. Those people are fighting to get here, not to leave here for a better life somewhere else.

rScotty

 

[2manyrocks]

I agree with both of those. We always parked hot equipment on bare ground or gravel.... always have done that even back in the days before we had regenerative emissions equipment. Mufflers have always been hot.
Hmmm.... I wonder if the skid steer went into regen, so he picked up a leaf blower to blow it off while it was doing a running regen.
Naw....couldn't be..... could it?

I have no idea, but I'm not spending $200,000 to repeat the science experiment.

 

[Hay Dude]

It's not just optimism, it's just that short term trends are so easy to work with. Easy to see, to change, and to see results. The downside to that is that you have short term downturns oscillating with short term upturns.... It can make a person dizzy and pessimistic.

I like to focus on the longer term. And it looks pretty good to me. Thngs world wide are healthier, wealthier, and more free than ever before in mankind's history. We are exploring outer space and the bottom of the ocean. Fascination at every level. Nobody is forcing me to buy new; I can fix old things to my heart's content.

For proof of how all this is working in the good old USA, just take a look at our borders. Those people are fighting to get here, not to leave here for a better life somewhere else.

rScotty

Healthier? You can’t be serious. We just went through a pandemic where millions died, many of whom were needlessly sent to their deaths and we were given questionable techniques for combating the pandemic. I would say the overall health condition is declining as evidenced by shorter life spans

Wealthier? I’m not wealthier. I hear a lot of people complaining their savings are nearly depleted from higher prices and taxes and regulations. Wealth seems to be congregating to the oligarchs and multi-millionaires.

Exploring outer space? Seems like to me, moon landings have stopped and we simply continue to do “easy” orbits of the earth.

Borders? Think handouts. It’s all about the Benjamins.

 

[2manyrocks]

Long term trend since 2008 is to not only kick the can down the road, but make the balloon even bigger this time around.

Or do you mean the long term in which Keynes said we are all dead?

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Don't forget the global move to exit the petrodollar system with the formation of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

I don't think that shall ever be a problem because the world's oceans require navies in order to enforce globalization. Globalization came into being after WWII when the allies, having won WWII and the petro-dollar becoming the world's reserve currency, globally enforced a level playing field insofar as shipping goods throughout the world. With the collapse of the former Soviet Union, leaving the USA as the only remaining Super Power, Globalization became the Globalization of Liberalism which has started to be challenged with a new rise in Nationalism (as seen with the formation of BRICS, for example), but then who is going to enforce the free passage along the world's shipping lanes for that to work?

We blockade just two shipping lanes and within a year China runs out of food and energy.

What really is going on is the USA is already questioning why it needs to remain the World's Cop, a thing that if we pared our participation back would help give rise to increased Nationalism, and at the very least, a partial collapse of Globalization. If the petro-dollar was broken as the world's reserve currency (which it became at the end of WWII), then our motivation to remain as the World's Cop would diminish.

Right now, in the context of the outbreak and continuation of the Ukraine War, we've learned Russia's Army would get trounced by NATO or the US Army. The weakness of Russia's armed forces juxtaposed with politicians saber-rattling for nuclear war throws us back into a problem Robert McNamara rightly understood as a problem that needed to be solved in the 21st century when he wrote his 2003 book, Wilson's Ghost. As I understand it, the thing that shut Putin up about saber-rattling nukes was our privately letting him know that we know exactly where he is at any given time, and if any nuke cooks off, we are killing him (the very same thing we did to Kim Jong-un during the last Administration by sending him photos of him personally watching a rocket launch). Unfortunately, we have hawks in the west that are continuing to saber-rattle for increased western effort in the Ukraine war, a thing that may put nukes back on the table for Russia if they are backed into corner.

Meanwhile, we continue to maintain a military that is capable of fighting a two-theater war.

 

[rScotty]

Long term trend since 2008 is to not only kick the can down the road, but make the balloon even bigger this time around.

Or do you mean the long term in which Keynes said we are all dead?

The term varies with what it is. For financal things, the term is shorter than for changes in society. Since you asked, I'd say - Don't get caught up in dates or definitions. Count your progress in terms of simple positive changes.
If you do that long enough, the short term changes will become a trend for you. That's a start.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Throw into the mix the current climate of economic catastrophe, funding a war with Russia and spending all this money and it all looks very bleak.

Sadly the hawks look at the proxy war as a zero sum where in order for us to win, Russia must lose.

 

[Hay Dude]

Sadly the hawks look at the proxy war as a zero sum where in order for us to win, Russia must lose.

And Putin/Russia losing could very well mean Putin launching. Guess where the ICBMs are landing?

 

[TN8Man]

Three years is what I would call "short term".

Yes and that's my point. The economy has drastically changed for the worse in just 3 years and the forecast from economic experts say its going to get much worse.

 

[drumminj]

spectacular failures at the leadership level.

I'd offer that part of the issue here is centralized leadership. Failure would be less of an issue if it was more localized, but over my lifetime there's been a trend of centralizing power which IMO is another negative trend.