Is the Cyber Truck a Flop?

   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #781  
Amen! That’s why I don’t understand the almost-religious hatred and fear of something like EVs. They are just another tool, good for certain people, not so much for some others.

Because with pretty much every other tool you have the option to not buy one if you didn’t want it. You currently still have that option with electric vehicles but they were being pushed on us as hard as they could.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #782  
Because with pretty much every other tool you have the option to not buy one if you didn’t want it. You currently still have that option with electric vehicles but they were being pushed on us as hard as they could.
Really? Where? Dodge just re-introduced the 6.2L supercharged Hellcat this month! Who's forcing you to buy an EV?!?
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #783  
Michigan just increased EV and plug in hybrid registration fees - in an odd way. The law links EV registration fees to the gasoline road tax. To direct more money to the road fund, the legislature eliminated sales tax on gasoline but increased the road tax by an equivalent amount. So the registration feeds for EVs will go up by $100 per year while the ICE fees are not changed. That will reduce the economic incentive to buy an EV.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #784  
Because with pretty much every other tool you have the option to not buy one if you didn’t want it. You currently still have that option with electric vehicles but they were being pushed on us as hard as they could.
I've never felt the least bit of pressure to buy an EV. Who is pressuring you?
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop?
  • Thread Starter
#785  
One last post and I'll leave it alone...
One might be able to have a friendly discussion that the EV battery holds the fuel - while the EV electronics and drive motors are more equivalent to the ICE engine and transmission.

But at any rate, with some easy basic design changes, it would be straightforward to decouple the battery to make it self contained and industry wide swappable.

EVs have very few shared standards today other than maybe the plug used to receive an external charging cord.

It seems the primary complaints with EVs which "everybody" makes (including EV owners, though maybe not admitted to) are:

1) limited distance per charge
2) Time required to recharge
3) high cost to surgically replace a dead/old battery

All easily addressed constraints with an industry standard swappable battery. It would remove the majority of the barriers to widespread EV adoption.

Well that, and maybe a redesign of the Tesla Pinewood Derby truck...

Is It Time for EV Charging Stations to Simply Offer Quick-Time Battery Swaps?​


Perhaps it’s time we dust off General Electric’s plan from 1910, when it equipped its GeVeCo electric trucks with separately leased Hartford Electric batteries designed specially to be swapped quickly when depleted. Together, these electric trucks covered 6 million miles between 1910 and 1924. Electric forklifts have used battery swapping since the mid 1940s, and Israeli startup Project Better Place (later just “Better Place”) endeavored to revive that idea for electric cars beginning in 2007.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #786  

Is It Time for EV Charging Stations to Simply Offer Quick-Time Battery Swaps?​


Perhaps it’s time we dust off General Electric’s plan from 1910, when it equipped its GeVeCo electric trucks with separately leased Hartford Electric batteries designed specially to be swapped quickly when depleted. Together, these electric trucks covered 6 million miles between 1910 and 1924. Electric forklifts have used battery swapping since the mid 1940s, and Israeli startup Project Better Place (later just “Better Place”) endeavored to revive that idea for electric cars beginning in 2007.
I'm not sure why anyone would think battery swapping is the way to go. According to 3 seconds spent on Google, base-model Tesla's have battery capacities near 50 kWh, and their long-range models closer to 100 kWh. But they're also out there replacing their older 325 kW superchargers with new 500 kW models.

I know there's always some tail-off as you near full capacity, but the 10% - 90% charge time on a 50 kWh battery should be under 5 minutes on a 500 kW charger. No way you're doing a battery swap in less than 5 minutes... heck the wait time for a technician to pull your car into a service bay is probably going to be longer than that.

To me, 5 minutes seems about the perfect time to wander into Wawa and grab a coffee or sandwich, while the car charges. The only real problem I see is that there just aren't that many of these chargers deployed in rural areas, yet.

But I think the main aversion to battery swapping (historically) was that no one wanted to give up their nice new or well-cared-for battery, to let Tesla slap some used battery of unknown condition into their car.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #787  
I
I know there's always some tail-off as you near full capacity, but the 10% - 90% charge time on a 50 kWh battery should be under 5 minutes on a 500 kW charger. No way you're doing a battery swap in less than 5 minutes... heck the wait time for a technician to pull your car into a service bay is probably going to be longer than that.
I've watched some videos of automatic battery swap stations in Japan and other countries (most of which have failed) and they are painfully slow. Anyone thinking it would be "easy" to design a common, fast swappable battery is not an engineer and has never worked in the automotive design field.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop?
  • Thread Starter
#788  
I'm not sure why anyone would think battery swapping is the way to go. According to 3 seconds spent on Google, base-model Tesla's have battery capacities near 50 kWh, and their long-range models closer to 100 kWh. But they're also out there replacing their older 325 kW superchargers with new 500 kW models.

I know there's always some tail-off as you near full capacity, but the 10% - 90% charge time on a 50 kWh battery should be under 5 minutes on a 500 kW charger. No way you're doing a battery swap in less than 5 minutes... heck the wait time for a technician to pull your car into a service bay is probably going to be longer than that.

To me, 5 minutes seems about the perfect time to wander into Wawa and grab a coffee or sandwich, while the car charges. The only real problem I see is that there just aren't that many of these chargers deployed in rural areas, yet.

But I think the main aversion to battery swapping (historically) was that no one wanted to give up their nice new or well-cared-for battery, to let Tesla slap some used battery of unknown condition into their car.
I agree, just pointing out that it has been attempted and is still being attempted.

I think solid state fast charging, if it ever happens, will be the catalyst that brings EVs to parity or better with gasoline.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #789  
I've never felt the least bit of pressure to buy an EV. Who is pressuring you?
Well it was about to get ugly pretty darn soon. California and the other 17 states that follow them were set to ban sales of new internal combustion passenger vehicles starting in 2035. Because of the long development and production cycles to manufacture and distribute vehicles, this likely would have starting having real effects on consumer choices even sooner.

Thankfully for all of us, congress repealed their waiver that allowed them to go above and beyond EPA regulations.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #790  
Not that I'm buying, but I am curious about your truck. What kind of range do you get? What do you plug it into? Do you drive it every day? How much room is under the hood to store tools? What did you pay for it and what options did you get for that price?

Thanks

I came from a LONG line of gasoline and diesel trucks over the last 30 years. Traded a '19 F-250 6.7 diesel for this F-150 Lightning. I drive the Lightning daily, and use it exactly like I used my F-250. The Lightning has a 5,000 lb. RAWR and over 2,000 lbs. of payload which allows for some fairly heavy use unlike other "1/2 ton" trucks.

Ford has a promotion going called the "Power Promise". They will cover all costs to have a 240 volt / 60 amp level 2 charge station installed at your house. It cost me zero. Now I just plug my truck up in my garage on Sunday night before bed and Monday morning I'm ready for the week. I get 315 miles of range on a full charge.

The "frunk" is very useful. It's totally out of sight and out of weather. I haul things in there all the time. I'd say it's the same size as the trunk on a large car. The model I got is the "Flash" which is above the XLT but below the Lariat. It's got more bells and whistles than a toy shop. Half of it I never even use because I'm old fashioned. But I do LOVE the heated steering wheel, heated seats, 360 degree camera view, and adaptive cruise control.

I leased it because I wasn't sure how I'd like it. They were doing $500/month deals on them in August.

It's been costing me $14 per "fill up" over the last nearly 3 months. My insurance premium dropped $80/month, only thing I can figure is the safety tech that's all over this thing.

And why would you want to do that? Do you like replacing tires prematurely?

I would think that kind of low end torque would work against you in snow, or maybe even wet roads.

Who said I do that constantly? The point, clearly, was that it WILL do it.

The truck has 5 drive modes. One of them is specifically for slippery conditions. That, combined with the weight of the EV and the AWD system will make this a CHAMP in snow and ice this winter. That's my prediciton.
 
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   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #791  
Thanks for all the details. I didn't know about the charging station. Did they do a nice job installing it? I ran wire for a 50 amp outlet in my garage when I built it. Hopefully that's enough power if we decide to get an EV. How many miles per year are you allowed to drive in your lease without having to pay extra?
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #792  
I don't hate or fear them, but it gets old (1) the feeling that they're being forced on us and (2) the EV fanboys who treat you like you're some kind of idiot if you're not all in on them. They have their upsides, but plenty of downsides as well. They're not the best choice for everyone.
I think both points are all in your imagination.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #793  
Well it was about to get ugly pretty darn soon. California and the other 17 states that follow them were set to ban sales of new internal combustion passenger vehicles starting in 2035. Because of the long development and production cycles to manufacture and distribute vehicles, this likely would have starting having real effects on consumer choices even sooner.

Thankfully for all of us, congress repealed their waiver that allowed them to go above and beyond EPA regulations.
Even if it did happen in CA in 2035, which it's not, it'd after the new-car-buying lifetime of 99% of the members here, before it rolled out to less liberal states. Something like 3% of all Americans will buy a new car after age 75, and it's closer to 1% after age 80.

How old will most of this forum be, by the time it actually passes in CA? How about KY, IL, or MI?!?

Total non-issue, for most of the old folks complaining about this fiction, of being forced to buy an EV. :ROFLMAO:
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #794  
The fact is:
Key dates for ICE car bans on new sales:

2025: Norway plans to ban new ICE car sales.

2030: The United Kingdom and several other European countries have set this target.

2035: California is phasing out the sale of new ICE vehicles, with the goal of having 100% zero-emission new passenger vehicles by this year. The European Union has also set a target of 100% emissions reduction for new cars and vans by 2035, which effectively bans new ICE vehicle sales.

So at 73, wife 71, we'll most likely never live to see the elimination of ICE vehicles...but things are never all that simple. EV purchasers were (and probably once again) getting Federal and State rebates. Where does that money come from? We pay a LOT of taxes, as does my 98 year old Mother who hasn't driven a car in years. Tax punishment for investment dividends & capital gains without reward.
My wife & I bought several new vehicles from a local Ford dealership. Their service department had to install new 50T lifts and equipment to service Mach-E Mustangs (as well as other EV makes). $hundredsK. Who pays for that? We do next new car or truck we buy, although ICE.
Now charging. The electric grid must be upgraded for that. Towers, sub-stations, wind, solar, deforestation, solar farms. Who pays for that? We do...higher electric bills.
Fast charging: I admit I know nothing of new battery technology but it's always been batteries last longer with a long slow charge.
I can fill our car with gas in 3-4 minutes. To equal that charging time would require several hundred Amps which equals lots of heat.
The idea of a fast R&R battery pack replacement I'm on the good idea side (whoever thought of that ) and here's why:
EVs could certainly be designed with an easy procedure for that built into the frame. And yes it could be standardized with a few on hand. The replacement could be fully tested, "refurbished" so one would be getting a charged pack. OR they could instead opt out charging theirs. The downside to that would be cost. The station would have to price the swap accordingly.
The bottom line is historically technology changes and things are implemented never a permanent solution but trial & error at consumer's expense which is in fact another way of "force".
I've always said "today's new and improved is tomorrow's junk".
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #795  
Even if it did happen in CA in 2035, which it's not, it'd after the new-car-buying lifetime of 99% of the members here, before it rolled out to less liberal states. Something like 3% of all Americans will buy a new car after age 75, and it's closer to 1% after age 80.

How old will most of this forum be, by the time it actually passes in CA? How about KY, IL, or MI?!?

Total non-issue, for most of the old folks complaining about this fiction, of being forced to buy an EV. :ROFLMAO:
It's not a "total non-issue", this is a very real situation. California was completely intent on banning sale of new ICE vehicles, and once Trump is out, they will likely try again. 17 other states have voted to take their vehicle regulations straight from what CA decides. This is close to HALF of the US passenger vehicle market. If you think that automakers would not change their total product offering strategy based upon this, you are not thinking clearly at all. And because vehicle platform engineering and investment decisions get made some 5 to 6 years ahead of actual production, the ban would effective kick in sooner in terms of product choices. Here is the map of the potentially affected states:
1761584927225.png


The point that I was trying to make to you, was that by virtue of CA's decisions, our available vehicle choices everywhere in the USA would be heavily impacted, starting within the next several years. I don't take the threat of ICE-bans lightly at all, personally.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #796  
It's not a "total non-issue", this is a very real situation. California was completely intent on banning sale of new ICE vehicles, and once Trump is out, they will likely try again. 17 other states have voted to take their vehicle regulations straight from what CA decides. This is close to HALF of the US passenger vehicle market. If you think that automakers would not change their total product offering strategy based upon this, you are not thinking clearly at all. And because vehicle platform engineering and investment decisions get made some 5 to 6 years ahead of actual production, the ban would effective kick in sooner in terms of product choices. Here is the map of the potentially affected states:
View attachment 4309312

The point that I was trying to make to you, was that by virtue of CA's decisions, our available vehicle choices everywhere in the USA would be heavily impacted, starting within the next several years. I don't take the threat of ICE-bans lightly at all, personally.
You make good points, and the eventual outcome probably lies somewhere between these two extremes we've each laid out. What I have learned, in 50 years of watching legislative bans of various products, is that they always take much longer than initially proposed, but they do eventually happen.

Personally, I'm not sweating it. I drive and prefer ICE's today, because the present ICE offerings better fit my needs and desires, than EV's. But over time, I anticipate that will change as the new tech improves and eventually becomes less costly, and I'm fine with that too.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #797  
The fact is:
Key dates for ICE car bans on new sales:

2025: Norway plans to ban new ICE car sales.

2030: The United Kingdom and several other European countries have set this target.

2035: California is phasing out the sale of new ICE vehicles, with the goal of having 100% zero-emission new passenger vehicles by this year. The European Union has also set a target of 100% emissions reduction for new cars and vans by 2035, which effectively bans new ICE vehicle sales.

So at 73, wife 71, we'll most likely never live to see the elimination of ICE vehicles...but things are never all that simple. EV purchasers were (and probably once again) getting Federal and State rebates. Where does that money come from? We pay a LOT of taxes, as does my 98 year old Mother who hasn't driven a car in years. Tax punishment for investment dividends & capital gains without reward.
My wife & I bought several new vehicles from a local Ford dealership. Their service department had to install new 50T lifts and equipment to service Mach-E Mustangs (as well as other EV makes). $hundredsK. Who pays for that? We do next new car or truck we buy, although ICE.
Now charging. The electric grid must be upgraded for that. Towers, sub-stations, wind, solar, deforestation, solar farms. Who pays for that? We do...higher electric bills.
Fast charging: I admit I know nothing of new battery technology but it's always been batteries last longer with a long slow charge.
I can fill our car with gas in 3-4 minutes. To equal that charging time would require several hundred Amps which equals lots of heat.
The idea of a fast R&R battery pack replacement I'm on the good idea side (whoever thought of that ) and here's why:
EVs could certainly be designed with an easy procedure for that built into the frame. And yes it could be standardized with a few on hand. The replacement could be fully tested, "refurbished" so one would be getting a charged pack. OR they could instead opt out charging theirs. The downside to that would be cost. The station would have to price the swap accordingly.
The bottom line is historically technology changes and things are implemented never a permanent solution but trial & error at consumer's expense which is in fact another way of "force".
I've always said "today's new and improved is tomorrow's junk".
You make a valid point with the electric grid. Maybe this will force our gov't to relax regulations on nuclear power. Or maybe give discounts on electric bills to those who charge at night when energy usage is at its lowest.

Why would the Ford dealership have to install new 50 ton lifts? I'm pretty sure a diesel truck will weigh more than a Mach-E.

Once you get use to the convenience of charging at home the gas station analogy almost goes away. I wake up in the morning with a "full tank" in our Tesla since it's charging over night when energy usage is at its lowest.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #798  
You make a valid point with the electric grid. Maybe this will force our gov't to relax regulations on nuclear power. Or maybe give discounts on electric bills to those who charge at night when energy usage is at its lowest.

Why would the Ford dealership have to install new 50 ton lifts? I'm pretty sure a diesel truck will weigh more than a Mach-E.

Once you get use to the convenience of charging at home the gas station analogy almost goes away. I wake up in the morning with a "full tank" in our Tesla since it's charging over night when energy usage is at its lowest.
The dealership had to install the lifts and equipment to work on EVs, what we were told.
If one bought an EV getting the rebates ($15,000 Fed+state) and they can charge at a lower rate they personally benefit. But there's no free lunch. ICE owner/taxpayers are paying those rebates and ultimately higher electric rates without any benefits which is my point.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #799  
It's possible they needed new lifts to work on EV's, not because of capacity, but some other feature. @tradosaurus is right, there's no passenger EV on the market today that weighs anywhere near 50T, or even as much as the typically-equipped F350.

In order to justify the cost of upgrading the lifts, which is surely more than the equipment purchase cost itself, they may have chosen the 50T lifts for other reasons, such as enabling them to work larger commercial vehicles in the same bays.
 
   / Is the Cyber Truck a Flop? #800  
If anyone looks it up:
"Dealerships are installing new lifts for electric vehicles (EVs) because traditional lifts cannot safely or effectively accommodate the unique weight, structure, and battery placement of EVs. Specialized EV lifts are necessary to prevent serious damage to the car and ensure technician safety."

Not for ICE cars & trucks they've been working on for years. New equipment and training for mechanics, in turn passed on to the consumer.
 

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