If it is a gear model, that changes things. Open your fill plug for the transmission and look into the hole with a flashlight. Look at the top shaft, look towards the rear of the tractor. The shaft goes into a coupler. If any part of the shafts splines are showing then you have identified the issue as the shaft has come uncoupled that runs the PTO. In theory you can recouple it through the hole, but as a practical matter it is nearly impossible to squeeze back together. The replacement parts, if you do tear it down to replace, are a little different and do not ever come uncoupled. We've sold hundreds of 2615/2816 so we have seen this a few times. If you have a high volume dealer nearby he has probably seen it as well. Rare, but it happens. Typically you split the tractor, install the kit and button it back up.