Buying a new tractor?

[t1kilo]

I was on YouTube this morning and ran across this video from a few months ago. I found it very interesting and thought some of you who might be considering a new tractor might like to see it.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Already been discussed here...

To me, it seems a little biased and other tractor channels have already sort of picked it apart.

It's funny to hear a tractor company that used to be the TYM of the industry, become the one to sort of bash the newcomers, like they were at one time.

Oh how we forget history. People are very value oriented, and in the past five years value is becoming harder to find in the tractor industry. The big three continue to lose market share in the compact tractor segment, from the numbers I’ve seen. Seems fitting to scare people from considering them, with broad generalizations, to shore up your share as we enter a challenging economic period for consumers.

 

[tacticalturnip]

Neil already took a pretty good ribbing for this bit of fear mongering; I felt it a bit unbecoming of him.

Now, that isn't to say there won't consolidation in the industry, but it's not likely going to be one of the OEM manufacturers. Kioti, TYM, Mahindra, LS; these companies are not likely to go anywhere any time soon. Where I would predict problems would be with these companies contract out to other manufacturers. Even then, it'll be interesting to see how brands attached to a distribution model (Rural King, Summit) do compared to more traditional dealers (Bad Boy, McCormick [compacts]).

 

[t1kilo]

I didn’t take his video to be bashing anyone. If his numbers are factual, then what he’s saying makes some sense.

I’m surprised I didn’t see the earlier thread. I’m on the forum pretty much daily and enjoy the banter. Sorry for bringing it up.

 

[CliffordK]

I was on YouTube this morning and ran across this video from a few months ago. I found it very interesting and thought some of you who might be considering a new tractor might like to see it.

Let's take a look at the "other" tractors he listed.

The first 5 of them are pretty well established US tractor companies. I can't say they'll all survive, or won't merge with another, spin off product lines, or even drop product lines. But, they have a lot of US history.
Many of them seem to be importing their compact tractor product lines.
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Bobcat
Case - International
New Holland
Massey Ferguson
Yanmar

Then we get some of the new kids on the block.
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Bad Boy
Mahindra
Kioti
LS
Rural King
Solis
Summit
TYM

Some of them are well established internationally. So, even if their US presence fizzles, they may still have international support.

We're also in an era that there are a number of small Chinese imports that are flooding the market. There are good and bad aspects. In some cases it is a market not well covered by domestic manufacturers. Yet, I'm now on the prowl for hydraulic lines, and what a PAIN.

Nonetheless, the number of Chinese manufacturers are limited, just often rebranded. So, if one importer vanishes, there may be others that will still be able to supply most of the parts.

Parts like engines are often made by a 3rd party. So, Yanmar, Shibaura, Deutz, and others might show up in the tractors, and one may have support for the engine beyond what the chassis manufacturer supports.

Then there is E-Bay. There is a lot of stuff on E-Bay. As well as tractor breakers.

Are Belarus tractors under US sanctions?

 

[DK35vince]

Strange, just a few short years ago Neil and several members here were telling us repeatedly how Kubota and John Deere had 80% of the compact tractor market and these other company's were fighting for what's left.
Now he is saying its 65-75% just a few short years later.
Sounds to me like these other tractors company's are chipping away pretty good at their compact market share IMO. .

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Strange, just a few short years ago Neil and several members here were telling us repeatedly how Kubota and John Deere had 80% of the compact tractor market and these other company's were fighting for what's left.
Now he is saying its 65-75% just a few short years later.
Sounds to me like these other tractors company's are chipping away pretty good at their compact market share IMO. .

They are. Especially in the post Covid era of new pricing.

 

[Hay Dude]

Strange, just a few short years ago Neil and several members here were telling us repeatedly how Kubota and John Deere had 80% of the compact tractor market and these other company's were fighting for what's left.
Now he is saying its 65-75% just a few short years later.
Sounds to me like these other tractors company's are chipping away pretty good at their compact market share IMO. .

They should be. Although Deere & Kubota have their advantages, I have seen where other brands like Massey and Yanmar are just as good, if not better in some respects.

 

[Yander]

Even then, it'll be interesting to see how brands attached to a distribution model (Rural King, Summit) do compared to more traditional dealers (Bad Boy, McCormick [compacts]).

I personally wouldn't touch any of these models, new or used; at least not yet. I see them being a flash in the pan for support, but I hope I'm wrong. They are probably good tractors for the $ but I would worry about long term dealer and parts support. By flash in the pan I mean they won't be around in 5 or 10 years.

All the others (Kioti, Mahindra, LS, TYM) i wouldn't hesitate to buy if the deal was right. But when I tractor shop I generally shop Yanmar (Yanmar built), NH (Shibaura engines), Massey Ferguson (Iseki or Shibaura engine) or Kubota (Kubota built). I typically don't shop the other models but if one comes up as a great deal, I would consider it.

My point, there are so many great tractor makers out there that this video by Neil discredits his knowledge or integrity in my book. I don't trust him to be anything but a salesman.

 

[Torvy]

If i was generous, I'd say his biggest problem is that he is too young or uneducated to to understand how people tend to act in a downturn. He's young, but smart and family has been in the business for years. He's just trying to get ahead of what's coming by scaring people into buying his brands over the less expensive ones.

Dad had an IH dealership in the 70s-early 80s. Oof. I lived through how bad it can get.

Here's what happens...people who may otherwise overspend for paint or perceived quality will buy "inferior goods". (As an economic term, inferior simply means market perception, not actual quality).

The big boys lose market share to 3 places...used sales, lower cost brands, or people simply opting out of a purchase altogether.

Since he posted the video, we have started to see this. The Korean brands have continued to chip away at Kubota and JD. As mentioned earlier, this is how Kubota got viable in the 70s...bargain brand during hard economic times.

The implication that the smaller brands only could fight over the scraps left by the big boys has been proven wrong time and time again. It is the big boys who are most vulnerable in terms of share. As more people get other brands, the myths around value start to be dispelled. When/if we recover, the best of those brands will have a more lasting share of the market.

 

[Rutman]

Remember when Hyundai and Kia first came around.
They were so bad dealers had them buy one get one free.
Now look at them. There as good as any of the others.

 

[Rustyiron]

I didn't watch the video but I believe that the issue for these companies entering this market is establishing a dealership network that's solid, stable and invested in the brand. This of course includes a solid parts and service at the dealership level, not as much as their product offerings.
Building this "network" is monumental in comparison to building the actual tractor itself especially these days.
Look at Yanmar, 1st rate equipment, probably equal to Kubota in the use of their engines by other manufacturers but where are the dealers?
They did buy ASV, I'm thinking as mainly a distributor/dealers for their small construction equipment. ASV seems to be the Chrysler of the small construction equipment companies as they've had as many different owners in the past dozen or so years. That's not a reflection of their product IMHO.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Yanmar has great equipment, but I passed because there were 6x as many TYM dealers near me. TYM got a little boost when they bought Kukje, and took over their Georgia facility and dealers

 

[aesanders]

John Deere still has the Lions share of the big ag tractors. There are some good competition though. AGCO brands are getting more popular as well as CNH. I see people who would only shop Deere in years past start looking at competitors though. I really think Deere ruffled some feathers lately.

I see the Korean brands in the compacts really taking ahold right now. Heck, I traded in a Deere for one. The price for a similar machine is just far too wide for the Deere and Kubotas in my mind. This is coming from a property owner. If for business I would want the bigger dealer network.

 

[CliffordK]

A dealer network is an issue. But, perhaps the dealer model will evolve in the future.

If one looks at the current upheaval in the auto industry, we're seeing new manufacturers popping up faster than dealer support.

Rivian has two dealers in Oregon, both in Portland. I'd be lucky that they're about 100 miles away from me, but much of the state is even further from a dealership. Burns customers may find themselves driving to Boise.

Perhaps some tractor brands could do something similar, especially if they can get some unaffiliated support.

 

[CliffordK]

Dad had an IH dealership in the 70s-early 80s. Oof. I lived through how bad it can get.

Since he posted the video, we have started to see this. The Korean brands have continued to chip away at Kubota and JD. As mentioned earlier, this is how Kubota got viable in the 70s...bargain brand during hard economic times.

The implication that the smaller brands only could fight over the scraps left by the big boys has been proven wrong time and time again. It is the big boys who are most vulnerable in terms of share.

Thinking of some of the history of Kubota.

My family bought our first tractor around 1980. An older two wheel drive International with a 2 point hitch (implements were cheap because they were already obsolete).

And we promptly got the International stuck in the middle of the hay pasture.

Our neighbor had an early Kubota though.

A funky little brand. Hitting the 15 HP to 30 HP market. And most of what I was seeing were 4x4 tractors.

On the other hand, gone were the days of the Farmall Cub. I think most of the American tractors were slightly larger than the little Kubotas.

So, what they had was a niche that wasn't fully covered by the American tractor industry that they pushed themselves into.

Now everyone has 4x4 tractors!!!

Yet, many of the compact and subcompact tractors are made somewhere overseas.

Now, moving ahead 40 or 50 years. Are there niches that would be open to competition?

We are seeing the electric vehicle industry blowing up. And, that is coming to the tractor and equipment market too.

There has been some talk about EGO and Greenworks battery powered zero turn mowers. In wouldn't be surprised if they come out with small general purpose tractors too (tractor, tiller, mower, loader, etc).

Soletrac has been struggling in the electric tractor market. Will they be back?

For a couple of reasons I've been interested in the small crawler market lately. The US manufactures are almost entirely ignoring the small crawlers, but are pushing tracked skid steer machines. Yet, there are a few international crawlers making their way in.

And, China has been flooding the market with mini excavators, as well as implements of all sorts.

Oddly, rather than coming in with one name, they're allowing their equipment to be rebranded, even by small importers. Nonetheless, they're here to stay.

 

[Yander]

Watch this from 22:15 - 31:40. It is the best overview of the Yanmar YT tractors you will find on the internet. It is done by a Yanmar service tech.