The researchers used economic models to quantify price and meat quantity estimates over the next 10 years based on the 2009 and 2013 rulings. They compared those findings to 2008, which provided estimates if MCOOL had never occurred.
..... the beef industry's 2009 impact was an economic loss of $8.07 billion over 10 years ....for the pork industry, ..... a $1.31 billion loss.
.... approximately 16 percent of pork and about one-third of beef production is covered by MCOOL, as some products such as those sold in restaurants are not required to bear the label. MCOOL covered beef would have to see at least a 6.8 percent increase and covered pork a 5.6 percent increase in demand to avoid an adverse economic impact.
Results also showed consumers to experience net losses $5.98 billion for beef and $1.79 billion for pork over 10 years due to higher retail prices and lower retail quantities available every year.
The researchers had to study 2013 separately because the MCOOL policy changed. The 2009 ruling led to labels such as "Product of U.S. and Canada" showing up on a package of beef, for example. The 2013 ruling required that same package to read more specifically,"Born in Canada, Raised and Slaughtered in the U.S."
... the specificity of "Born, Raised and Slaughtered" stages in 2013 ... means additional costs with additional precision, ..... an incremental additional cost, but it isn't as large as the original cost to be in compliance.
The additional impact of the 2013 rule was another $494 million loss to the beef industry and $403 million loss to the pork industry over 10 years. Demand increases would need to be at least another 0.4 percent for beef and 1.6 percent for pork on top of the 2009 estimates to avoid an adverse economic impact.
Consumer losses were another $378 million for beef and $428 million for pork based on the 2013 revision.
The poultry industry .....was the only one to show a gain. Those gains for 10 years were $753 million for 2009 and an incremental addition of $67 million for 2013. The gains, however, were narrow compared to the billions in losses to the beef and pork sectors that mean a total loss for the meat industry as a whole.
The main reason is (the poultry sector) doesn't have the same cost of compliance, so at the retail level there is some shift away from more expensive beef and pork prices over to poultry products, .... a pull for more production on the poultry side, and the poultry industry benefits.