DaveNH -
<font color="blue">I don't believe it's possible to calculate the “loss of market” based upon total population. </font>
Ugh. I knew I shouldn’t have responded as I’d feel urged to defend my post at some point. (That’s why I pretty much gave up a while back when it came posting on non-tractor related stuff on TBN. Should have just kept my mouth shut - er - fingers static this time too. /forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif) Oh well.... /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif
I'm guilty of an over simplification in my census scenario, because yes, I agree, there are a LOT of other factors that determine a potential customer segment. The 17% was based on the entire U.S. population, and since not every American has a phone, the 290M would have to be cut down. 'Course in addition to the non-phone-enabled population, you have the whole thing demographics thing (age, ***, race, income, religious affiliation, political affiliation, housing, etc. etc. ) as it would affect the number of viable harass-ee’s, I mean “customers” for a given telemarketer (based on what he's selling.)
Unfortunately in my attempt to circumvent all the minutia associated with determining a market segment for a business, yes, I threw out an artificially low statistic - my bad. But whether it is 17%, 25%, 50%, etc. (and, again, there is no one “true” number because of all the stuff mentioned in my first paragraph), the principle I was trying to illustrate holds true - i.e.
(1) even with the list in place, there will be a large pool of phone numbers available for telemarketers to call; (there will NEVER be 100% participation in the list so there will ALWAYS be someone to bug);
(2) the overall U.S. population is increasing thereby providing an ever increasing customer base to harass (unless there is some cataclysmic event like an asteroid hitting the earth or something like that); and
(3) markets & economies are ever changing and when one door closes - be it buggy whips or the telemarketing industry - additional ones open up. ('course the temarketing industry will not go the way of the do-do due to the no-call list.) (Your Sprint link helps to illustrate this marketplace/job creation aspect.)
Now, the initial reply I would anticipate from someone advocating the telemarketer position in this thread would be, "If that's the case, then the $30K number thrown out earlier by someone else is a similar argument - i.e. an incorrect “statistic” meant to illustrate a point (i.e. increases in costs will hurt the small businessman.)"
On the surface, this seems to be true, however (1) my “statistic” was not given in an attempt to scare and alarm as the $30K one was, and (2) going from a cost of $30,000 and “weeks and weeks” of effort to comply to a cost close to $0 and hours (if not minutes) to comply based on hard numbers provided by the government (who you purchase the list from) negates the entire point that was trying to be made.
So, yes, the census-based percentage I cited should be larger - but regardless of its size, it will only be an estimate at best as the number will vary depending on a wide variety of factors WAY beyond the scope of this thread. And since the actual percentage is moot to the core points I was making anyway, I'm more than happy to give it up.
Next time I guess I should go in to more detail - that’s if there is enough space to store my post on the server. /forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif
---------
PS: Your point about 2, 3, 4, etc. individuals being "blocked" by a single phone # being on the list works both ways - e.g if a phone number is not on the list, 2, 3, 4, etc. people within the household can be solicited via a single phone line. In other words, all else being equal, as long as the # of participants in the no-call list is below 50% for any given market segment population, this fact actually works in favor of the telemarketer. Only when the participant rate goes to >50% will it serve as an additional restriction on potential “customers” that can be accessed via a phone. Just something to think about.