If one really delves into the much-touted "ClimateGate", it turns out it was much ado about nothing, and most likely funded by those who had the most to lose by anything negotiated at Copenhagen. A few cherry-picked and taken out of context excerpts from one single entity does not make a grand conspiracy. The science is still sound. I challenge anyone to prove otherwise...
YouTube - Climate Crock Sacks Hack Attack Part 1
You are repeating the talking points to try to minimalize the impact that those emails have on the science of global warming. Unfortunatly, those emails prove exactly what you are denying.
The emails do prove a conspiracy.
They prove that evidence was hidden and destroyed.
They prove that emails were to be deleted to hide what they were discussing.
They prove that they cheated in peer reviewing each others science.
They prove that they blackballed and discredited those who disagree with them.
They prove that they manipulated the numbers to get the results that they want. This has in fact been one of the biggest complaints that the Russians keep making. Hanson (NASA) has had to change data several times when the Russians confronted him about using the wrong data. He has carried summer temperatures into the winter months, and just ignored the temperatures from allot of their weather stations. If it doesn't fit the agenda, change it or don't use it.
They also coloberate allot of the claims that data has been cherry picked or ignored to get the results they want. The ice core samples and the tree rings are two big lies that they tried to keep going, but have since had to remove. One tree in all of Siberis fit their model, but hundreds of others didn't. Guess what was used for the evidence of CO2? The hundreds of trees that disproved it? or the one that did?
What the Global Warming Emails Reveal - WSJ.com
Climategate Document Database : Alleged CRU Email
These are three of the emails. Read them and decide for yourself if they are being honest, or taken out of context. They are very clear and very revealing.
Eddie
>Date: Tue, 18 May 1999 11:27:48 +0100 (BST)
>From: T Johns <tcjohns@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>Subject: Re: Climate Sensitivity
>To:
d.viner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>Cc:
tcjohns@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>Status:
>
>Hi David,
>
>I have just got back from leave today - sorry for the lack of response
>to your emails.
>
>On climate sensitivity, the equilibrium sensitivity in HadCM2 was difficult
>to get a definitive answer for initially as the conventional slab experiment
>was unstable, so we estimated it from part of a transient coupled run
>instead. We quoted 2.5 K in the original Nature paper. Recently we
>have done a HadAM2 slab experiment (modified sea ice and slab ocean physics)
>which indicated 4.1 K rather than 2.5 as an equilibrium value. This is
>quoted in a paper submitted as a CMIP study. The HadAM3 conventional
>slab experiment gave the 3.3 K figure I think. The HadCM2 discrepancy
>indicates the perils of this yardstick; other research here suggests that
>the effective climate sensitivity does respond to climate change feedbacks
>in transient experiments (with HadCM2 particularly). The early 2.5 K
>estimate has been revised upwards based on a long coupled run of HadCM2 to
>be closer to the 3.3 K we got from HadCM3 equilibrium slab experiments.
>
>Comparing transient temperature responses to similar time-varying forcing
>may be a better indication of real sensitivity, but so long as we quote
>single climate sensitivity numbers I fear that there is scope for confusion.
>
>Tim.
>
>PS: I will try to get an update on the HadCM3 references sorted out for you.
>
>> Tim
>>
>> I'm a bit confused as now I have seen a numeber of different values, in
>> HCTN2 you mention that HadAM3 has a climate sensitivity of 3.3 degrees K
>> and that this is similar to HadCM2. Is this the case and is such a value
>> available from a comparable HadAM2 experiment.
>>
>> Many regards
>>
>> David
>>
>> PS Did you get my message about references?
>
#--------------------------------------------
# Dr. David Viner
# Climate Impacts LINK Project
# Climatic Research Unit
# University of East Anglia
# Norwich NR4 7TJ
# UK
From: Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To:
tkarl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: THC collapse
Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2000 10:43:29 -0700 (PDT)
Cc: Thomas Stocker <stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Jerry Meehl <meehl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Timothy Carter <tim.carter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
maureen.joseph@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
lindam@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
peter.whetton@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
giorgi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
cubasch@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
ckfolland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
hewitson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, "Stouffer, Ron" <rjs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
DEASTERL@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Great Tom, I think we are converging to much clearer meanings across
various cultures here. Please get the inconclusive out! By the way,
"possible" still has some logical issues as it is true for very large or
very small probabilities in principle, but if you define it clearly it is
probably OK--but "quite possible" conveys medium confidence better--but
then why not use medium confidence, as the 3 rounds of review over the
guidance paper concluded after going through exactly the kinds of
disucssions were having now. Thanks, Steve
On Wed, 23 Aug 2000
tkarl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx wrote:
>
>
> Steve, I agree with your assesement of inconclusive --- quite possible is
> much better and we use 'possible' in the US National Assessment. Surveys
> has shown that the term 'possible' is interpreted in this range by the
> public.
>
> Tom
>
>
>
>
> Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx> on 08/23/2000 03:02:33 AM
>
>
>
> To: Thomas Stocker <stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>
> cc: Jerry Meehl <meehl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Timothy Carter
> <tim.carter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
maureen.joseph@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
>
lindam@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
>
peter.whetton@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
giorgi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
> Tom Karl/NCDC,
cubasch@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
>
ckfolland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
hewitson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
> "Stouffer, Ron" <rjs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>
>
>
> Subject: Re: THC collapse
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Hello all. I appreciate the improvement in the table from WG 1,
> particularly the inclusion of symmetrical confidence levels--but please
> get rid of the ridiculous "inconclusive" for the .34 to .66 subjective
> probability range. It will convey a completely differnt meaning to lay
> persons--read decisionmakers--since that probability range represents
> medium levels of confidence, not rare events. A phrase like "quite
> possible" is closer to popular lexicon, but inconclusive applies as well
> to very likely or very unlikely events and is undoubtedly going to be
> misinterpreted on the outside. I also appreciate the addition of
> increasing huricane intensities with warming moving out of the catch all
> less than .66 category it was in the SOD.
> I do have some concerns with the THC issue as dealt with here--echoing
> the comments of Tim Carter and Thomas Stocker. I fully agree that the
> likelihood of a complete collapse in the THC by 2100 is very remote, but
> to leave it at that is very misleading to policymakers given than there is
> both empirical and modeling evidence that such events can be triggered by
> phenomena in one century, but the occurrence of the event may be delayed
> a century or two more. Given also that the likelihood of a collapse
> depends on several uncertain parameters--CO2 stabilization level, CO2
> buildup rate, climate sensitivity, hydrological sensitivity and initial
> THC overturning rates, it is inconceivable to me that we could be 99% sure
> of anything--implied by the "exceptionally unlikely" label--given the
> plausibility of an unhappy combo of climate sensitivity, slower than
> current A/OGCMs initial THC strength and more rapid CO2 increase
> scenarios. Also, if 21st century actions could trigger 22nd century
> irreversible consequences, it would be irresponsible of us to not mention
> this possibility in a footnote at least, and not to simply let the matter
> rest with a very low likelihood of a collapse wholly within the 21st
> century. So my view is to add a footnote to this effect and be sure to
> convey the many paramenters that are uncertain which determine the
> likelihood of this event.
> Thanks again for the good work on this improtant table. Cheers, Steve
>
>
> On Wed, 23 Aug 2000, Thomas Stocker wrote:
>
> > DEar Jerry, Tim and Ron et al
> >
> > I agree that an abrupt collapse - abrupt meaning within less than a
> decade, say
> > - has not been simulated by any climate model (3D and intermediate
> complexity)
> > in response to increasing CO2. Some models do show for longer
> integrations a
> > complete collapse that occurs within about 100-150 years. If you put that
> into
> > context of the apparent stability of THC during the last 10,000 years or
> so,
> > this is pretty "abrupt".
> >
> > Following up on the discussion regarding THC collapse, I think the
> statement Ron
> > apparently added to Ch9 needs to be made more specific. In order to keep
> Ch7 and
> > Ch9 consistent, I propose to Ron the following revision:
> >
> > "It seems that the likelihood of a collapse of the THC by year 2100 is
> less
> > than previously thought in the SAR based on the AOGCM results to date."
> >
> > There is really no model basis to extend this statement beyond 2100 as
> evidenced
> > by the figures that we show in TAR. There are many models that now run up
> to
> > 2060, some up to 2100, but very few longer.
> >
> > Also I should add for your information, that we add to Ch7 a sentence:
> >
> > "Models with reduced THC appear to be more susceptible for a
> > shutdown."
> >
> > Models indicate that the THC becomes more susceptible to collapse if
> previously
> > reduced (GFDL results by Tziperman, Science 97 and JPO 99). This is
> important as
> > "collapse unlikely by 2100" should not tempt people to conclude that THC
> > collapse is hence not an issue. The contrary is true: reduction means
> > destabilisation.
> >
> > Best regards
> >
> > thomas
> > --
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------
> > Thomas Stocker
> > Climate and Environmental Physics
stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
> > Physics Institute, University of Bern phone: +41 31 631 44 64
> > Sidlerstrasse 5 NEW fax: +41 31 631 87 42
> > 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Thomas Stocker - Home Page
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------
> >
>
> ------
> Stephen H. Schneider
> Dept. of Biological Sciences
> Stanford University
> Stanford, CA 94305-5020 U.S.A
From: "John L. Daly" <daly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Chick Keller <ckeller@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Hockey Sticks again
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 21:47:57 +1100
Reply-to:
daly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Cc: "P. Dietze" <p_dietze@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
mmaccrac@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Michael E Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
wallace@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Thomas Crowley <tom@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
sfbtett@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
daly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
onar@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
jarl.ahlbeck@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
richard@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, McKitrick <rmckit@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Bjarnason <agust@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Harry Priem <priem@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
vinmary.gray@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
balberts@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Martin Manning <m.manning@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Albert Arking <arking@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Sallie Baliunas <baliunas@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Jack Barrett <100436.3604@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Sonja Boehmer-Cristianse <sonja.b-c@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Nigel Calder <nc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, John Christy <christy@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
cpaynter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
driessen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
dwojick@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Myron Ebell <mebell@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Ellsaesser <hughel@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, John Emsley <j.emsley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Jim Goodridge <jdg@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
gsharp@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Peter Holle <cog@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Douglas V Hoyt <dhoyt1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "W. S. Hughes" <wsh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Wibjörn Karlén <wibjorn.karlen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
kidso@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, KIrill Kondratyev <kirill.kondratyev@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Dr. Theodor Landscheidt" <theodor.landscheidt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Ross McKitrick <rmckitri@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, omcshane <omcshane@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Pat Michaels <pmichael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
pbrekke@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, "David M. Ritson" <dmr@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
robert.balling@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Tom Segalstad <t.v.segalstad@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Fred Singer <singer@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Roy Spencer <roy.spencer@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Hartwig Volz <Hartwig.Volz@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gerd-Rainer Weber <gerd-rainer.weber@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
tlowery@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Rosanne D'Arrigo <druidrd@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Dear Chick & all
> the first is Keith Briffa's rather comprehensive treatment of getting
> climate variations from tree rings: Annual climate variability in
> the Holocene: "interpreting the message of ancient trees", Quaternary
> Science Reviews, 19 (2000) 87-105. It should deal with many of the
> questions people raise about using them to determine temperatures.
Take this from first principles.
A tree only grows on land. That excludes 70% of the earth covered by
water. A tree does no grow on ice. A tree does not grow in a desert. A
tree does not grow on grassland-savannahs. A tree does not grow in
alpine areas. A tree does not grow in the tundra
We are left with perhaps 15% of the planet upon which forests
grow/grew. That does not make any studies from tree rings global, or
even hemispheric.
The width and density of tree rings is dependent upon the following
variables which cannot be reliably separated from each other.
sunlight - if the sun varies, the ring will vary. But not at night of
course.
cloudiness - more clouds, less sun, less ring.
pests/disease - a caterpillar or locust plague will reduce
photosynthesis
access to sunlight - competition within a forest can disadvantage or
advantage some trees.
moisture/rainfall - a key variable. Trees do not prosper in a drought
even if there's a heat wave.
snow packing in spring around the base of the trees retards growth
temperature - finally!
The tree ring is a composite of all these variables, not merely of
temperature. Therefore on the 15% of the planet covered by trees, their
rings do not and cannot accurately record temperature in isolation from
the other environmental variables.
In my article on Greening Earth Society on the Hockey Stick, I point to
other evidence which contradicts Mann's theory. The Idso's have produced
more of that evidence, and a new article on Greening Earth has
`unearthed' even more.
Mann's theory simply does not stack up. But that was not the key issue.
Anyone can put up a dud theory from time to time. What is at issue is
the uncritical zeal with which the industry siezed on the theory before
its scientific value had been properly tested. In one go, they tossed
aside dozens of studies which confirmed the existence of the MWE and LIA
as global events, and all on the basis of tree rings - a proxy which has
all the deficiencies I have stated above.
The worst thing I can say about any paper such as his is that it is `bad
science'. Legal restraint prevents me going further. But in his case,
only those restraints prevent me going *much* further.
Cheers
John Daly