Due to the cost to transport, most of your market forces (both supply and demand) are primarily local. Then you also have the fact that there are commercial competitors, and hobby farmers, that contribute to the supply side of the market.
All in all, it is pure gambling where all rules are local.
Good luck.
I think you really nailed it. I have already built a scenario where if I get "X" per bale I know what I'll make.
My issues are, like with any new business venture, the unknown factors....