Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet?

[MinnesotaEric]

Actually, retail isn't really participating in this rally because they think they've missed the boat.

CZ got caught up in the out-going administration's "I hate Crypto" policy which didn't define anything the industry asked about and inforced "rules" nobody knew about because they were not made clear in the first place. Eventually Greyscale won court cases and the SEC had to reverse calling crypto "securities" which had forced retail investors out of USA-based exchanges. Worse, now through X we're finding out the SEC was pretty much directed to do lawfare by Senator Warren and bureaucratic appointees within the SEC (The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was a monster created by Senator Elizabeth Warren through the Obama Administration and amounted to a regulatory & lawfare bureau to sue dissenters into submission).

So the big bump up was after 4-years of unclear, hostile regulation coming at the the crypto industry being lifted (and what really hurt is a bunch of these companies are USA-based and were under pressure from regulators who weren't defining their rules while delisting their crypto from American exchanges through Wells Notices). Now we have the most pro-crypto administration coming into office and a refreshing change of winds coming from the SEC.

Anyway, CZ went to jail because he allowed US citizens to trade unregulated "securities" by the SEC who was forced through the courts to reverse their positions, and suddenly we're getting all kinds of different US-based crypto ETFs for domestic and foreign investors.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Web3 is Going Just Great is a great source. Very well researched.

I don't see any Cardano scams on that site. That site also needs a search feature.

I will say this, the guy who most recently lost his $BTC though a Ledger hardware wallet apparently signed a phishing contract six months before he realized his wallet had been drained. Even more reason to put Bitcoin contracts on the Cardano chain (according to @IOHK_Charles proper security and privacy is coming to native Bitcoin users).

That said, given your other post, it sounds like you're coming down on the coming "apocalypse."

 

[OffgridTractor]

Carry $100,000 in currency, metals, or diamonds through an airport.

While you could be robbed, you'll get caught with it and they will confiscate it because they assume you're up to "no good."

I can carry $100K in Bitcoin on a thumb drive and without the key phrase, even I cannot get at it.

Try to send me $100,000, immediately.

Your bank had better have a Medallion Bond.

There will be a waiting period.

I can send $100K of Bitcoin in ten minutes to anybody on the internet.

Store your wealth long term.

Real estate has maintenance and carrying costs and has depreciated against the value of Bitcoin.

Fiat currencies dilute themselves as sovereign debt accumulates. The last twenty years has halved the value of the US dollar. You've been collecting interest? well, your actual buying power has halved (minus 50%) over the last 20 years.

Invest in metals? Not as bad as holding cash, but the buying power of Gold is negative 5% a year because the value of gold has not kept up with inflation because as the price goes up, people are incentivized to go dig more of it up.

Since its inception, Bitcoin is up 149% per year with compounding interest and the total amount of Bitcoin is fixed.

Sure, ok. 149% of what? Sounds like a bubble. Still no value for anything

I needed to send $100k of anything in 10 minutes on the spot, I'd be questioning my judgement.

Buying BTC right now would be very poor economics indeed, as it's as high as it's ever been. Buy low.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Sure, ok. 149% of what? Sounds like a bubble. Still no value for anything

I needed to send $100k of anything in 10 minutes on the spot, I'd be questioning my judgement.

Buying BTC right now would be very poor economics indeed, as it's as high as it's ever been. Buy low.

Well, on chain Bitcoin transactions continue to trend upward and everybody gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve. Here is page one of the draft for the next Administration establishing a Bitcoin Reserve (on the campaign trail, it was called a Bitcoin Stockpile much like our fuel and oil stockpiles). Think about Bitcoin becoming a nation state reserve asset and work from there. Game theory will definitely be in play. If we're right about this in 5 years everybody will be looking back on this time period and think to themselves that the signs were so obvious. It'll be like November 2022 After FTX's crash and retail investors could see the writing on the wall with the court cases and front run the inevitable commercial adaption of Bitcoin except now we all get to front-run the national adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset to bolster the value of fiat currencies and deter national debt.

 

[Fuddyduddy1952]

"Since Bitcoin does not have any particular central authority, the government could just require every node that operates in the U.S. to have a license, effectively rendering the use of Bitcoin illegal since presumably most individuals would be incapable of going through such an arduous process."
Computer Science › Bitcoins › r..
There is fear of the executive order leaning towards a cashless society, some say unfounded, but it's still just ethereal. I agree with Warren Buffet, he's been around a long time and another president could overturn Executive order 14067.
It stinks...but that's me.

 

[drssg]

A couple of years ago, processing one Bitcoin transaction required enough electricity to power an average US household for 48 days. I don't know the current data.

I see no way that there is that much business value. People complain about the big evil credit card companies charging 3.5%, and they provide fraud protection services.

IMO, the vast percentage of Bitcoin owners are not using it as an alternate currency. It is a high-risk investment. When it makes money, it's because a lot of people buying it, because they think it will make money. I don't see a legitimate underlying product.

How Much Energy It Takes to Power Bitcoin

The creation of bitcoin, and any transactions involving it, require energy. Find out how much energy the bitcoin network consumes every year.

www.thebalancemoney.com

 

[MinnesotaEric]

A couple of years ago, processing one Bitcoin transaction required enough electricity to power an average US household for 48 days. I don't know the current data.

I see no way that there is that much business value. People complain about the big evil credit card companies charging 3.5%, and they provide fraud protection services.

IMO, the vast percentage of Bitcoin owners are not using it as an alternate currency. It is a high-risk investment. When it makes money, it's because a lot of people buying it, because they think it will make money. I don't see a legitimate underlying product.

How Much Energy It Takes to Power Bitcoin

The creation of bitcoin, and any transactions involving it, require energy. Find out how much energy the bitcoin network consumes every year.

www.thebalancemoney.com

The price swings are a FEATURE, not a detriment. Last week Bitcoin traded a little over $108,000, when Bitcoin dropped below $100K, it became a feature.

While most people don't know this, most power made is wasted so having a constant load from miners helps the power companies. Forbes explains how it works in Germany at this link and how it works in Texas at this link. This link at EE Power looks at case studies of Bitcoin miners stabilizing grid power demands. The following video explains how Bitcoin miners stabilize energy grids.

 

[rumwrks]

When it makes money, it's because a lot of people buying it, because they think it will make money.

Moreso it's Tether dumping fake printed dollarooo like substances into the ecosystem to pump the value so the whales can dump on the chumps. How you can have over 100 billion in vaporware.. boggles my mind. I shoulda been a criminal.

In before "tether is fully backed", if that's true why haven't they ever had a real audit and keep side skipping the issue (and no their "attestation" is not an audit plus there were non trivial conflicts of interest there).

 

[paulsharvey]

Ok, so Bitcoin (and similar) people often miss the point. Its not really meant as an investment, but a means of transaction. Look at El Salvador; they moved to it because it saves readmitted money without the added fees from Western Union and other wire services, allowing something like an extra 7% of their people's money in.

 

[paulsharvey]

The El Salvador example is good, because it shows some potential, along with some if the problems. Looks like only 1.4% of readmittances are in Bitcoin, while Mexico is closer to 4%. There was issues with the coin wallet app, which hurt the effort, but it still is a legit way to move money nearly instantly across boarders.

 

[Complete Turf Care]

How do you go about buying bitcoin? If I wanted to buy $5000 worth of bitcoin as an investment, how would I do that?

 

[Oaktree]

How do you go about buying bitcoin? If I wanted to buy $5000 worth of bitcoin as an investment, how would I do that?

I believe most brokerage houses (Fidelity, Schwab, etc.) will let you buy bitcoin thru them.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Moreso it's Tether dumping fake printed dollarooo like substances into the ecosystem to pump the value so the whales can dump on the chumps. How you can have over 100 billion in vaporware.. boggles my mind. I shoulda been a criminal.

In before "tether is fully backed", if that's true why haven't they ever had a real audit and keep side skipping the issue (and no their "attestation" is not an audit plus there were non trivial conflicts of interest there).

Ripple issued its own stable coin this past week and it is pegged to the dollar and they are US-based.

Ripple Sets RLUSD Stablecoin Launch Date, Making Token Accessible on XRP Ledger and Ethereum

The stablecoin will become broadly available to crypto users on the XRP Ledger and Ethereum networks starting Tuesday.

www.coindesk.com

 

[MinnesotaEric]

How do you go about buying bitcoin? If I wanted to buy $5000 worth of bitcoin as an investment, how would I do that?

Here in the states, if your state has granted it, you can purchase Bitcoin through Fidelity. Otherwise, set up a Robinhood or Coinbase account (both are USA-based). Definitely check with your existing brokerage as they may already be set up for it. Also you can gain exposure through any of the Bitcoin ETFs. I own both FBTC (Fidelity's ETF) and IBIT (Blackrock's ETF) in a retirement account.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Ok, so Bitcoin (and similar) people often miss the point. Its not really meant as an investment, but a means of transaction. Look at El Salvador; they moved to it because it saves readmitted money without the added fees from Western Union and other wire services, allowing something like an extra 7% of their people's money in.

El Salvador's Bitcoin story is like a roadmap for nation states recovering from inflation and debt. Back in 2021 they made Bitcoin fiat currency and began both buying it as well as mining it (powered by a volcano-fueled geothermal power plant). El Salvador has been pressured by the International Money Fund to not use Bitcoin, and in the past month, El Salvador made Bitcoin "voluntary," rather than fiat currency but Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining is taught in its public schools and the nation is super pleased with its volcanic mining operations.

In fact El Salvador's Bitcoin experience has been so successful, they are looking to build a "Bitcoin city" powered by geo-thermal. Since El Salvador doesn't have any taxes on Bitcoin gains, they are attracting more and more interest from foreign investors helping them build out their infrastructure. El Salvador isn't out of the woods yet, but it appear that El Salvador is moving in the right direction.

 

[paulsharvey]

It also can be useful if your doing transactions between countries when one suddenly doesn't want to play ball. I don't even mean N. Korea or Iran, or anything like that. I've heard stories (don't know that it 100% true) of middle class white farmers trying to get assets out of the SAR, and the government blocking transfers. Even moving USD to something like Tanzania, or whatever. Then we add problems like Belarussian Rubles to something like Japanese Yen; that would likely take 3 or 4 transfers/conversations. Bit Coin can be bought in Minsk and cashed out in Yokohama, without multiple currency conversions.

Also, anyone who moves or messes with money, often Offical conversions aren't as easy, or clean. Don't know now, but if you wanted to buy USD with J-dollars (Jamaican), you had a limit per day at official exchange, and then you would have to buy them off market, at a Much worse exchange.

 

[etpm]

I've heard stories (don't know that it 100% true) of middle class white farmers trying to get assets out of the SAR, and the government blocking transfers

Not middle class black farmers? Or brown farmers? Why only white?
Eric

 

[paulsharvey]

Not middle class black farmers? Or brown farmers? Why only white?
Eric

It's the SAR. Not many black farmers trying to get their assets and flee to better places. Frankly, not many black farmers with much assets. The white (and Indian) business folks don't seem to be as affected, I guess because they can move a bit at a time; but for a good sized farm, it's going to be a single large sale, and get out of dodge, and try to start a new life somewhere better. They are kinda the modern day Kulaks, not weathly enough to do much, but wealthy enough for the lowest to target, and the richest to defect blame too.

SAR= South African Republic

But regardless of that in particular, most countries try to avoid letting people take the money and get it out. Same could be in Turkey, PRC, Canada, or where ever. Even taking money earned in US to Mexico, often involves additional taxes and bribes to get it there. Also, I'm not poking at those places, if a multi billionaire US citizen wanted to convert all of his money to Yuan, and leave, I'm guessing DHS or another alphabet group would make their life hard.

 

[Fuddyduddy1952]

Interesting to me no one is concerned by Satoshi Nakamoto is the name used by the presumed pseudonymous person or persons who developed bitcoin.
Bitcoin started by the unknown, ethereal, untangeable, largest owner unknown.

 

[Snobdds]

The entire thing with bitcoin is to create scarcity. Scarcity is the thing they believe will drive higher prices long term.

Full disclosure, I own bitcoin.

With that said, I am fully aware there is zero underlying assets supporting bitcoin. It's all a belief in something.

One thing about a currency is it must be transferable in many different denominations. For example, $1,10, 100 etc. Currency must easy to scale to support buying anything from $1.00 to $1,000 conveniently. Will bitcoin have this, Nope. WIll someone really use bitcoin as the preferred money to buy my bike for sale for .6258 bitcoin? Nope. It's not a easily transferable currency, unless both parties have the technical ability to make it work, which is new for this world, a technical component to buy and sell. Also, the value changes so fast that one must look up what the value is constanly to figure out what they have. For these resons, it will never be a currency.

It's a speculative investment that has no intrinsic value. Never forget this.

I am hoping when I want to sell my bitcoins, I can. Just like with gold and silver, it's easy to buy, but trying to off load it at scale is next to impossible.