Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet?

[quicksandfarmer]

I agree, but it is still a mess to unwind. The ChatGPD image thingy gave a quick overview (but uses ETH for its smart contracts example, sigh). That said, compared to an investment account needed to buy real estate investment trusts, a free wallet is a MUCH lower barrier to entry. Also RE is a bit of a diversion to the glorious ascendancy that crypto shall have our lives, which is of course, is the main thrust of this thread.

Blockchain makes sense when you can't have, or don't want to have, a central authority keeping records. That's why it doesn't make sense for real estate.

And that's why it's a spectacularly bad idea for a national currency. You want to have someone actively managing your money supply. Central banks aren't perfect by any stretch, they're human and make mistakes all the time, but they are so far superior to anything that preceded them that's there's no comparison. In particular they are vastly superior to a fixed money supply, which is what crypto represents and what was the dominant model before central banking, in the form of currency based on precious metals. In the 19th century it was a regular feature to have financial "panics" roughly every ten years, you'd see 20+% inflation one year and 20+% deflation the next as the economy whipsawed.

Central banking was one of the innovations that made the 20th century possible -- the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, other countries formed central banks around the same time. The 20th century was the greatest period in the history of humanity for creation of wealth, scientific advancement, technological achievement, extension of lifespan. We learned to fly, cracked the atom, went into space, sequenced DNA, invented the computer and cured diseases that had plagued mankind forever. Central banking helped make that possible.

 

[quicksandfarmer]

In the scenario you outlined, the onus of verifying the identity of the seller is on the title company. They're issuing title insurance, if the seller isn't who they say they are they have to make everyone else whole.

You haven't addressed how with blockchain you address the issue of ownership changing through outside events like inheritance, divorce, bankruptcy and foreclosure.

Fractional ownership of real estate is already possible, that's what a real estate investment trust (REIT) is. Changing how ownership is recorded won't change anything about how they operate.

You also haven't addressed why blockchain would in any way be better than just issuing a passcode to every property owner.

 

[quicksandfarmer]

Any investment is speculative. When an investment isn't backed by a claim on underlying assets or income streams, it is purely speculative. With purely speculative investment, your entire upside is finding someone willing to pay more for the asset than you paid, a "greater fool" in the parlance of investing.

Crypto is a purely speculative investment, there are no underlying assets or income streams. When you hear people talking about a national or state bitcoin reserve, or a crypto reserve, what they are really talking about is making the federal or state government the greater fool. Keep that in mind.

 

[Snobdds]

Microstrategy is a ponzi...proof below.

 

[quicksandfarmer]

Microstrategy is a ponzi...proof below.

View attachment 3181920

That is the very definition of a Ponzi scheme: using new investors to pay off old investors.

 

[Snobdds]

That is the very definition of a Ponzi scheme: using new investors to pay off old investors.

The bitcoin maxi's are undeterred.

Saylor's proposition: Give me $85, I promise to pay $10 a year in dividends. Since I have no money and can't pay, I'll pay additional interest on the missed payments, all the way up to $18. If I have money, I'll redeem the $85 shares for $100 but don't hold your breath.

 

[rumwrks]

Microstrategy is a ponzi...proof below.

This is what happens when you don't throw criminals like that in jail the first time they do it. How Microstrategy managed to survive his 2000 scamming and he somehow walked away with a slap on the wrist is as much a strong of indictment of our lax security laws as anything.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Even as the reoccurring poisoning of the well conversation continues (see above), we're continuing to have telegraphed where an entire market segment is heading.

To wit, when we get domestic stablecoin and market structure legislation, you'll begin to see the ground shift under your feet when Microsoft, Google, Apple, and other tech companies start adding crypto wallets to their software opening up crypto markets to 3 billion people to avoid credit processing fees.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1907049766325788907

The explosive growth of crypto exposure to more and more people will take place even as the broader market likely will continue to risk-off as the velocity of commerce slows from our government slowing its spending and private enterprise relocating or changing their manufacturing structure to avoid political and tariff risks. But as soon as market structure legislation is enacted, yield products will be made available for crypto holders. For example: large domestic banks need to retain around $0.12 in liquid assets for every dollar they lend out. But when stablecoins and crypto enter into the system, huge amounts of assets can leave at any time during the day or week potentially leaving the bank over-leveraged and other banks with significant counter-party risk (think Lehman Brothers in 2008). As such, banks will begin offering yield products to entice investors to keep their Bitcoin and other crypto at the bank governed under smart contracts (which makes the Bitcoin and Cardano tie-in, super, super cool). We're also likely to see our big banks firing up their own nodes so their crypto assets remain liquid and this additional computing power will further strengthen and secure crypto networks. And this will all be done apart from companies keeping Bitcoin on their books and national treasuries warehousing Bitcoin to bolster the value of their fiat currencies.

 

[quicksandfarmer]

Blockchain makes sense when you can't have, or don't want to have, a central authority keeping records. That's why it doesn't make sense for real estate.

And that's why it's a spectacularly bad idea for a national currency. You want to have someone actively managing your money supply. Central banks aren't perfect by any stretch, they're human and make mistakes all the time, but they are so far superior to anything that preceded them that's there's no comparison. In particular they are vastly superior to a fixed money supply, which is what crypto represents and what was the dominant model before central banking, in the form of currency based on precious metals. In the 19th century it was a regular feature to have financial "panics" roughly every ten years, you'd see 20+% inflation one year and 20+% deflation the next as the economy whipsawed.

Central banking was one of the innovations that made the 20th century possible -- the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, other countries formed central banks around the same time. The 20th century was the greatest period in the history of humanity for creation of wealth, scientific advancement, technological achievement, extension of lifespan. We learned to fly, cracked the atom, went into space, sequenced DNA, invented the computer and cured diseases that had plagued mankind forever. Central banking helped make that possible.

I learned today that between 1900 and the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 there were five recessions.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

I learned today that between 1900 and the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 there were five recessions.

The issue with fractional reserve currency systems is that they inflate the volume of money, ultimately decreasing each unit of the money's system's buying power.

With that said, my personal view is this:

The Federal Reserve is not part of our government. The Federal Reserve is considered to be independent from our government—meaning it's not a part of the executive or legislative branches, and its monetary policy decisions are not subject to political interference—though it is ultimately accountable to Congress. The Federal Reserve is a privately-owned bank whose officers and policy are subject to public oversight and has a mandate to return any profits over 6% back to the Treasury which is part of our government.

Here is a survey of the history of the Federal Reserve. History of the Federal Reserve

Fractional Reserve currency systems operating under central banks will eventually lead to central bankers themselves needing to be bailed out by a central bank. Bitcoin as a store of value IS effectively that central bank.

Again, Money as Debt is a brilliant explanation of the world's modern fiat currency system.

 

[Complete Turf Care]

At our Rotary club meeting, our speaker was our state treasurer John Fleming. I asked him his thoughts on cryptocurrency. He said that although one state agency does accept cryptocurrency payments, his department is not ready to start dealing with it yet

 

[MinnesotaEric]

View attachment 3216648At our Rotary club meeting, our speaker was our state treasurer John Fleming. I asked him his thoughts on cryptocurrency. He said that although one state agency does accept cryptocurrency payments, his department is not ready to start dealing with it yet

I'd like our municipality to be able to have exposure to Bitcoin through our normal money market manager so that our ROI exceeds inflation rates and we wouldn't need to increase our local levy to cover expenses.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1908210089292419356

Today we see Bitcoin decoupling from risk assets before our very eyes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1908203921296019903

 

[MinnesotaEric]

While I expect traditional markets to continue bed-wetting over headline risk, a methodical survey published last January highlights that Crypto in general is in the process of going mainstream with Americans. Key findings are an interesting mix of "yeah, yeah, go, baby, go!" and "Is this safe?!"

• Cryptocurrency ownership has nearly doubled in the three years since the end of 2021. In 2025, approximately 28% of American adults, or about 65 million people, own cryptocurrencies.
• 14% of people without crypto plan to buy it in 2025, and 67% of current owners plan to buy even more this year.
• Among those who plan to buy crypto in 2025, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin are among the top three most desired currencies.
• 60% of adults familiar with crypto believe that the value of cryptocurrencies will increase during Donald Trump’s second presidential term, and 46% believe that Trump will boost mainstream cryptocurrency adoption in the U.S.
• Though public enthusiasm for crypto has grown in recent years, 40% of people who own cryptocurrency still aren’t confident that the technology is safe and secure. Nearly one in five cryptocurrency owners have had difficulty accessing or withdrawing their funds from custodial platforms.
  

Meanwhile, back to today, markets don't just go down. In sustained downturns (like from 2007 to March 9th, 2009), downward trends act like a series of deadcats. But like a pop fly ball that keeps floating even though it has run out of momentum to the upside, to the downside, public sentiment for a variety of reasons remains negative after markets actually begin to turn around.

Anyway, the rumor is that we will get domestic stablecoin and market structure legislation before the end of the first recess in August. But if we don't get that confirmation that crypto-friendly legislation is en process, then the lack of legislative movement becomes a serious headline risk for crypto at large which would be exacerbated by the velocity of commerce in the broader economy if it is obviously slowing.

All to say far too early to discuss end-of-the-world, wealth preservation concerns but I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a series of prolonged deadcats as people become more concerned and start searching for safe havens.

 

[Snobdds]

This guy...the pump is on.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/bitcoin-to-hit-250000-mag-7-adopt-stablecoins-charles-hoskinson.html

 

[rumwrks]

Meanwhile Blackrock just dumped a bug chunk of their toxic assets^W^WBitcoin holdings.. and Microstrategies latest 10Q was a fun and amusing read (here's hoping for a good old fashioned margin call!)

 

[quicksandfarmer]

I'd like our municipality to be able to have exposure to Bitcoin through our normal money market manager so that our ROI exceeds inflation rates and we wouldn't need to increase our local levy to cover expenses.

Property taxes in my town are due December 31. If our town clerk had put the proceeds into Bitcoin in December at $109,000 there would have been a revolt this week when it hit $75,000.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Meanwhile Blackrock just dumped a bug chunk of their toxic assets^W^WBitcoin holdings.. and Microstrategies latest 10Q was a fun and amusing read (here's hoping for a good old fashioned margin call!)

Keep hoping.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914469328985919785

Property taxes in my town are due December 31. If our town clerk had put the proceeds into Bitcoin in December at $109,000 there would have been a revolt this week when it hit $75,000.

Taxes are paid to the county. The county then at a later date dolls out to your township the levy for that year.

The township's treasurer, at the bidding of the township's board, moves rainy day funds in whatever investments the State allows townships to invest in.

 

[Oaktree]

Taxes are paid to the county. The county then at a later date dolls out to your township the levy for that year.

The township's treasurer, at the bidding of the township's board, moves rainy day funds in whatever investments the State allows townships to invest in.

Maybe in your state, but not all. There is a portion that goes to the county for whatever it is they do but my tax bill comes from the town, and that's who I write the check to.

 

[quicksandfarmer]

Taxes are paid to the county. The county then at a later date dolls out to your township the levy for that year.

The township's treasurer, at the bidding of the township's board, moves rainy day funds in whatever investments the State allows townships to invest in.

In Rhode Island taxes are paid directly to the town. It's the New England way. The only thing done at the county level in New England is state courts.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

In Rhode Island taxes are paid directly to the town. It's the New England way. The only thing done at the county level in New England is state courts.

I just learned something. In MN our property taxes are due on May 15th and October 15th.