Update to this thread.
I ended up being unable to locate a replacement shaft. I had a new pilot bushing (#11 on
YM1510 crank shaft) and a new clutch plate (#19 on
YM1510 clutch) and the existing splined coupling (#15 on
YM1510 transmission/gears) but was unsure of the correct shape of the end of the shaft that fit in the pilot bushing. I sent these pictures to Aaron at Hoye and he indicated the wear on the shaft here was likley the cause of my problem to begin with:
Apparently the shaft is supposed to be the same diameter all the way to the end, and not tapered as mine was. The tractor does have the little clip on the clutch pedal to lock it down (keeps the pressure plate from rusting to the clutch when sitting for long periods of time or if it got wet in a rice paddy) and I suspect some previous owner ran the tractor for an extended period of time with the clutch held down, to wear it so much. When I took out the old pilot bushing from the flywheel, it fell apart into three pieces (picture shows the new bushing also for comparison):
So for anyone's future reference: (1) replace the pilot bushing and furthermore (2) make sure the end of the shaft doesn't wobble around in the pilot bushing... if you don't, then the splines between the clutch disc and the shaft will wear, and you'll eventually find yourself with this problem, too.
I got a replacement splined shaft made at
Swiss Precision/Worcester Gears which took a couple of months for them to work into their schedule. I finally got a chance to re-assemble everything this winter. The new shaft seemed to fit just fine. The tractor is warming up at 1500rpm in this picture:
While I haven't tried to apply any real working load to the tractor yet, the clutch and gear shift operation all seems to be just fine. Seems like it was a good repair, even though it took forever for me to get around to finishing it.